Picks of the Week

 

A slight winning week by number of winners, but the damn big bet got me again.  I knew that Aaron Rodgers would come back to haunt me as the Packers covered late in the 4th quarter.  Ugh!  Well, let's see if the winning percentage at least still goes up!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -8 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

So, I was so exasperated by the fact that visiting teams have been doing well on Thursday night, that I just picked the visiting team without taking into account how poorly Baltimore has actually been playing.  That is on me.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 at Washington Football Team

Giving up double digits on the road is never a good bet, but, Tampa is first in scoring offense, 1st in passing offense, 2nd in total offense and 2nd in offensive third down conversions whereas Washington is 29th in scoring defense, 29th in total defense, and last in passing defense and third down conversion defense.  And, Washington is 25th in scoring offense.  This game should not be close.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

The fact that Ben Roethlisberger is out screams for a Detroit pick, except, we will probably get a huge dose of Najee Harris against Detroit's 29th ranked rushing defense.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. New Orleans Saints

Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara both out.  Seems like a wash from that standpoint, so Tennessee is a much better team overall.  Mark Ingram is likely to become the leading rusher in New Orleans Saints history.

Atlanta Falcons +8 at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas should win this game, but Randy Gregory being out is HUGE for the Cowboys.  He was easily their most disruptive player on defense.  A lack of a pass rush probably keeps this game close.

Cleveland Browns +2 1/2 at New England Patriots

I should be taking Belichick in such a tactical game as this with both teams missing their star running backs, but this is one of those games where I just have a feeling that the Browns defense (3rd overall and against the rush), step up and pull this out - especially getting points.

Buffalo Bills -13 at New York Jets

The Bills are coming off a disappointing loss last week to the Jaguars, and I look for them to rebound with a vengeance.  This is akin to week 2, where after the Bills lost to the Steelers in week 1, torched the Miami Dolphins 35-0.

Jacksonville Jaguars +10 at Indianapolis Colts

Perhaps the Jaguars derive a little momentum after their victory over the Bills.  My guess is that they keep it close.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

The Vikings should keep this close, since it seems like every game they are in is close.  Not sure how the civil suit filed against Dalvin Cook will affect his play, but the Chargers 32nd rush defense might look super appealing to him.

Carolina Panthers +9 at Arizona Cardinals

PJ Walker versus Colt McCoy.  Not how anybody would draw up this game, but that is what we have.  I completely underestimated Arizona with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins last time, but at least Christian McCaffrey is back.

Denver Broncos -1 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I really have no idea how this game is going to turn out.  Since there really isn't much of a spread, I'll take the home team.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Anybody really want to bet against Aaron Rodgers after the last two weeks he has had?

Las Vegas Raiders +2 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

We have to be honest, this year's Chiefs are NOT the Chiefs of the past 3 years.  There is just something missing.  And the offense is probably not going to steady itself against the 5th ranked passing defense.  Plus, the Raiders have the number 2 passing offense in the NFL, and they are going against the 21st ranked passing defense in Kansas City.

San Francisco 49ers +3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Odell Beckham, Jr. is not going to be ready to play, or at least make a difference, in this game, which is a pity as the Rams lost Robert Woods for the season earlier this week.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Anybody really want to bet against Aaron Rodgers after the last two weeks he has had?

I am going to be more specific, I will absolutely bet on Aaron Rodgers after the last two weeks he has had.  Still surprised he is not suspended, though.  (Who am I kidding, no I am not!)

Bye Week:  Chigago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, New York Giants

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  73-63

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year to Date Winnings (Losses):  ($485)

Picks of the Week

And of course, I cannot have three winning weeks in a row, so it ends up being a horrible week.  Oh well, it is time to start an epic comeback.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts -10 v. New York Jets

Hooray - a Thursday win!

Miami Dolphins -5 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Please, please, don't anybody watch this game.  The 29th (Miami) ranked offense versus the 31st (Houston) ranked offense.  The 29th (Houston) ranked defense versus the 31st (Miami) ranked defense.  Ugh!

Dallas Cowboys -10 v. Denver Broncos

For whatever reason, big favorites are covering a lot this year.  And, Denver's morale has to be reeling from the Von Miller trade.

 

Cleveland Browns +2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland's defense (3rd overall), prevails in a hard-nosed close game in which Cleveland's number 1 rushing offense closes the game out in the fourth.

Baltimore Ravens -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Baltimore bounces back from the Bengals trouncing, or, at least I hope.

New York Giants +3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Not taking the west coast team travelling east and playing the 1:00 game.

Atlanta Falcons +6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Another game with dreadful offenses (Atlants 24th; New Orleans 30th).  Just going to take the points in this situation.

Jacksonville Jaguars +14 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo wins this, and pretty easily.  I just think they coast in the second half.

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

I hate taking road favorites, but they do win sometimes, and home-field advantage is not what it used to be.  Plus, if New England plays like they did last week, P.J. Walker doesn't have a chance, unless .... McCaffrey is actually healthy.

Los Angeles Chargers -1 at Philadelphia Eagles

This is basically a pick 'em, and in those situations I pick the better team, especially in the 4 pm slot.  The Chargers 32nd ranked rush defense scares me, but their 7th ranked passing offense should more than compensate.

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray's status makes this pick tough, but I am guessing that Murray does not play.  Colt McCoy is still in the league?

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Green Bay Packers

Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!  How many games does the NFL suspend Aaron Rodgers for?  My guess is none, but it should be at least 3.  Seriously, can somebody tell me the difference between Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers?

Los Angeles Rams -7 v. Tennessee Titans

No Derrick Henry does mean more passing opportunities for A.J. Brown, who is great.  Except, A.J., meet Jalen Ramsey.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

I am just hoping that Justin Fields keeps progressing.

Big Bet

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Green Bay Packers

Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!  How many games does the NFL suspend Aaron Rodgers for?  My guess is none, but it should be at least 3.

Honestly, I couldn't figure out who should be my big bet.  And since Aaron Rodgers has already screwed both my fantasy teams (although Derek Carr is a more than adequate backup in one), he might as well have his team screw me over in my picks, too.

Bye Week:  Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Football Team

Last Week's Record:  6-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  65-57

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($555)

Year to Date Winnings (Losses):  ($460)

Picks of the Week

 

Another winning week!!!!  I could get use to this.  Hopefully I can keep it moving.  No analysis this week, as I am travelling with an appointment soon this morning, so just going to get this done and hope.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Arizona Cardinals -6 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Whoops - Even without Davante Adams!

Chicago Bears +4 v. San Francisco 49ers

I don't like this.  I am only picking the Bears because Matt Nagy is out.

Miami Dolphins +14 at Buffalo Bills

Atlanta Falcons -3 v. Carolina Panthers

  

Clevelan Browns -4 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Soooo tempted to go Pittsburgh here.

Cincinnati Bengals -11 at New York Jets

Really, the Bengals are a double-digit road favorite?  And I am taking them?

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Wouldn's shock me if Detroit snuck in a win here.

Los Angeles Rams -16 at Houston Texans

Jackonville Jaguars +3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks on a short week.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 v. New England Patriots

Also my suicide pool pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans on a short week.

Denver Broncos -3 1/2 v. Washington Football Team

Will Tua Tagavailoa be a QB for Washington next week.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Minnesota Vikings

Hoping that Dak Prescott is starting.

New York Giants +10 at Kansas City Chiefs

Is KC reeling this much?  Tyrann Mathieu said that Kansas City has the most toxic fanbase in the country.  Sounds like he was smoking something toxic.

Big Bet

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans on a short week.

And, they just aren't that good anyway.

Bye Week:  Baltimore Ravens, Las Vegas Raiders

Last Week's Record:  7-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  59-48

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $190

Year to Date Winnings (Losses):  $95

Picks of the Week

WooHoo!!!  Fantastic week!  Only two consecutive losses on Sunday night and Monday night kept this from being astronomically huge!!!!  See if we can make three winning weeks in a row!!!  Not much analysis as I am doing this late Saturday night due to the fact that I am 4 hours behind my normal Eastern Time Zone, so NFL starts at 9:00 a.m. for me tomorrow.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos + 1 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

I thought that all of the injuries to Cleveland would make a difference, but nope, the home team on a short week strikes again.

Carolina Panthers -3 at New York Giants

Carolina's defense is the difference, as they are 3rd in total defense and 6th in scoring defense.  The Giants best defensive stat is that they rank 20th in 3rd down conversion percentage.

Atlanta Falcons -2 at Miami Dolphins

Great - two consecutive visiting favorites.  Ugh.  But Atlanta is well-rested.

Green Bay Packers -8 1/2 v. Washington Football Team

Would feel more comfortable with 6 1/2 points, but Washington's defense, ranked 30th in total defense and 32nd in scoring defense, is in for an onslaught.  (Seriously, another road favorite?)

  

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati's defense has played great this year, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired.  I finally get to select a home team!

New England Patriots -7 v. New York Jets

Keep the home streak rolling (+New England is my survivor pool pick!)

Kansas City Chiefs -4 at Tennessee Titans

Kansas City may have turned the corner last week, but they only have the 27th best rushing defense to try to stop Derrick Henry.  But, Tennessee is on a short week.

Chicago Bears +11 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Way too many points considring all of the injuries to Tampa Bay.

Los Angeles Rams -16 v. Detroit Lions

This line is ridiculous, but most lines that look way to high, sometimes coas too many people into thaking the underdog.  Not for me on this game.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 at Philadelphia Eagles

Great playing by the Raiders last week.  They keep it rolling this week.

Arizona Cardinals -18 v. Houston Texans

The Texans are AWFUL!

Indianapolis Colts +3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Indianapolis keeps this one close.

New Orleans Saints -4 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Seattle wasn't playing all that well with Russell Wilson in the lineup.  Now, they are worse.  Will Jacob Eason gets some run.

Big Bet

Las Vegas Raiders -3 at Philadelphia Eagles

Great playing by the Raiders last week.  They keep it rolling this week.

The Raiders return home without Jon Gruden.  Good for them!

Bye Week:  Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers

Last Week's Record:  10-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  52-42

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $710

Year to Date Winnings (Losses):  ($95)

Picks of the Week

 

First winning week last week. Hopefully it is the start of a streak!!!  I am starting a bit late, honestly because I was watching last night's Saturday Night Live, so not too much time for analysis if I am going to get out to watch the Bears/Packers!  Of course, this means I am NOT watching the dumpster-fire that is Dolphins-Jaguars.  This is the first week of byes, so each game is more important in developing a winning streak than usual.  Although I am still 0-5 on the big bet.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles +7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thank goodness Philly's staff believes in anlytics, otherwise I would have pushed this bet instead of winning.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Miami Dolphins (in London)

Jacksonville always outperforms in London.  Well, almost always.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears almost as much as the McCaskey family.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Both putrid offenses, by Cincinnati's defense is middling.  The same cannot be said of Detroit's.

  

Kansas City Chiefs -6 1/2 at Washington Football Team

Both defenses are horrible (32nd and 31st respectively in scoring defense).  The best defensive unit is Washington's rush defense, and Kansas City doesn't rely on the run that much anyway.  Only because I just took 2 consecutive road favorites am I making it 3.

Carolina Panthers +2 v. Minnesota Vikings

I am not making it 4 consecutive road favorites, especially with Carolina's defense (1st in passing defense, 2nd in total defense, 3rd in scoring defense, and 8th in rushing defense.  They are also 1st in 3rd down conversion percentage defense.)

Indianapolis Colts -10 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Two 1-4 teams in a battle of horrific failutres.  I know I am giving up 10 1/2 points, but the Texans only score 17.8 on average.  Indy can score 27 on this Texans defense.

New York Giants +7 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

West coast team travelling east playing the early game.  

Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I would have loved to have seen this game in the 4:00 slot.  Betting, again, against the west coast team travelling east playing the early game.

Arizona Cardinals +3 at Cleveland Browns

Yes Kareem Hunt is really good.  But, Kareem Hunt is much  better when the Browns have Nick Chubb.  Chbb's absence might affect the number 1 rushing team in the NFL.

Las Vegas Raiders +5 at Denver Broncos

Most teams play poorly in the face of adversity.  I think playing on the raod actually helps the Raiders.  I look for Carl Nassib and his position-mates Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue have a great game rushing Teddy Two Gloves.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Dallas is clicking on all cylinders, even defense where Trevon Diggs leads the NFL in interceptions.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

All you need to know is that Seattle brought in Blake Bortles for a tryout this week.  Didn't sign him, so Jake Luton is the backup.

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

The Bills are cruising on offense  as the highest scoring team in the league.  But, they are also the best team in the league at preventing the opponent from scoring.

Big Bet

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Dallas is clicking on all cylinders, even defense where Trevon Diggs leads the NFL in interceptions.

I don't like taking road teams for my big bet, but road teams are covering at an unprecedented rate this year.  In fact, most casinos have moved the traditional 2 1/2 to 3 points given to the home team down to 1 1/2.

And, for personal reasons, I am riding with someone named Elliott, with 2 "L"s and 2 "T"s.

Bye Week:  Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

Last Week's Record:  10-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  42-38

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $175

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($805) 

Picks of the Week

A winning week according to the record, but the damn big bet gets me again.  I am 0-4 on the big bet this year.  UGH!  I have to catch a flight in a couple of hours, so no analysis for the most part, just picks.  Remember, first game today is in England, so it starts EARLY!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Since home teams are 0-3 so far on Thursday nights, why not just pick the best team?

New York Jets +2 1/2 "at" Atlanta Falcons (in London)

Take points in an awful game.

Washington Football Team +2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Green Bay Packers -23 at Cincinnati Bengals

Detroit Lions +10 at Minnesota Vikings

  

Pittsburgh Steelers +1 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Just a gut feeling.

Tennessee Titans -4 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 v. Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots -8 at Houston Texans

Las Vegas Raiders -5 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. New York Giants

Buffalo Bills +3 at Kansas City Chiefs

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Indianapolis Colts

Big Bet

New England Patriots -8 at Houston Texans

So on short weeks, like Thursday nights, always pick the home team.  That hasn't works, so I switched it up this week and picked the road team.  For my big bet, always pick a team at home, and if you do pick a team on the road, never select a road favorite (this is for the big bet, not for all road favorites).  So, I am going to switch that up this week to break my big bet 0-4 streak. 

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  32-32

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($35)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($980) 

Picks of the Week

 

Another 8-8 week snakebitten by the Pick of the Week.  Seriously, how on earth did the Raiders let that one falter, only to win on a FG in overtime.  They easily could have had a TD on that last drive too, but I get it, take the guaranteed points.  UGH!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Home teams are 0-4 against the spread this year.  Yuch.  At least Cincy squeaking by worked in my suicide pool.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

I am only making this pick because I think that Offensive Coordinator Bill Lazor might actually be calling the plays this game.  No official announcement on that front has been made, but if Nagy makes the calls, this is almost for sure a guaranteed loss.

New York Giants +7 at New Orleans Saints

The Saints are definitely the better team, but the Giants have played pretty close in their three losses.  The Saints are coming off a pretty good-sized wins, which means in Jameis Winston's up-and-down career, he is due for a down game.  Gimme the points.

Philadelphia Eagles +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City's offense is still prolific, but the Eagles defense is performing way better than the Chiefs' defense this year to date.  All 3 of KC's games have been within 6 points, and that game was a loss for the Chiefs.  Eagles on a short week could hurt, but I like them getting a full touchdown rather than 6 and the hook.

Buffalo Bills -17 1/2 v. Houston Texans

This spread is preposterous, especially for an NFL game.  The easy bet is on the Texans.  But, there is always one bet that seems way too easy, so you should go the opposite direction.  I think this is that game.

  

Carolina Panthers +4 at Dallas Cowboys

My mind initially saaw the Cowboys as the pick.  But, this Carolina defense only gives 224 yards (1st), 146 passing yards (1st), 45 rushing yards (1st) and 10 points (2nd) per game.  I expect the Cowboys will exceed those averages, but their pedestrian defense (26th total defense, 31st passing defense, 13th in scoring defense) will be what lets them down and keeps this game close.  Plus, the Cowboys are coming off a short week.

Cleveland Browns -1 at Minnesota Vikings

This pick is based upon my belief that Dalvin Cook, although playing, will not be 100%.  Another key is Cleveland's 2nd best rushing offense versus Minnesota's 20th ranked rushing defense.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

In what looks to be the dreariest game of the day, I will take points.  Why?  Indianapolis' top-ranked unit is its passing defense (13th), and Miami's tap-ranked unit is its passing defense (19th).  Every other unit is worse, offensively and defensively.  Ugh.

Tennessee Titans -6 at New York Jets

New York's offense is putrid (30th total offense, 30th passing offense, 29th rushing offense, 32nd scoring offense).  Couple that with a middling rush defense (15th) against Derrick Henry, it's Tennessee.

Washington Football Team -1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

The 29th (Washington) and 30th (Atlanta) scoring defenses in the NFL.  With that being a horrible draw, which team scores more?  Washington is 19th whereas Atlanta is 29th.  I'll take Washington.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Statistically, the Cardinals are better, especially offensively.  But, these two high-flying offenses (Arizona 1st in scoring offense; Los Angeles 3rd), will see this game decided by defense, possibly with Jalen Ramsey making a big stop.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Seattle is a shocking 1-2 whereas San Francisco is a very good 2-1, losing only to a last-second Aaron Rodgers drive last week.   Seattle's defense has been abysmal this year so far, but San Francisco's offense is slightly below average in everything, so I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Both defenses match-up favorably in this game, which is saying something since Green Bay was torched early by Jameis Winston.  Pittsburgh's offense is helmed by the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger, whereas Aaron Rodgers has shaken off that week 1 loss.

Baltimore Ravens pick 'em at Denver Broncos

Denver has the opportunity to quiet those opponents that are complaining that Denver's 3-0 means nothing because they haven't played anybody (Giants, Jaguars, Jets).  The Broncos defense is good (2nd overall, 3rd passing, 2nd rushing, 1st scoring), but A LOT of that can be attributed to their opponents' offensive ineptness.  Baltimore is first in rushing and 8th in rushing defense.  I like Baltimore's chances on the road, but I wish they were getting a point or two.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 1/2 at New England Patriots

They over-hyped game of the week because of Brady's return, but I expect this game to not be close.  Although Mac Jones has the 1 win from all rookie QBs this year, it came at the expense of the Jets, and another rookie QB.  To prove that Rob Gronkowski's rib injury means nothing, I predict Brady throws a touchdown to Cameron Brate.

Las Vegas Raiders +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This game should be a fun one to wach as the Raiders are 1st in the NFL in passing offense and the Chargers are 4th in passing offense.  But, the Raiders are better at converting points from their yards (6th in the NFL versus 19th).  The defenses are fairly similar (13th versus 16th in total defense), except the Chargers are dead last in rushing defense and 28th in third-down conversion defense.  I actually typed all of this before I mentally made my pick, so I talked myself into the Raiders.

Big Bet

Tennessee Titans -6 at New York Jets

I hate picking road teams for my big bet, but given how awfule I have been at my guarantee, I have to change it up.  Missing stud receivers only means more Derrick Henry, with a surprise splash of Anthony Firkser.

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  23-25

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($245) 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($945)