Picks of the Week

So, it only took until week 2 for me to have a really bad week.  If it wasn't for the ups-and-downs, sports betting wouldn't be so exciting.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns +3 v. New York Jets
Home underdog on a short week, while the Jets are playing their third game in 11 days with a rookie starting quarterback. Didn't play out the way I thought, but the pick was still solid.

New Orleans Saints +2 at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is out two key defenders, and gave up a ton or yards and touchdowns to Cam Newton.  What do we think Drew Brees will do.  Plus, Christian McCaffrey had 14 receptions last week, how many will Alvin Kamara have this week.  

Denver Broncos +6 at Baltimore Ravens
We have Denver, which is 4th in Total Offense, against Baltimore, which is second in Total Defense.  I take Denver because Baltimore's stats are skewed due to the fact they played Buffalo in the first game.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Cincinnati is 4th in total points scored at 34 per game.  Yes it's early, but Carolina just gave up 31 to Atlanta.  Win or lose, Cincinnati puts up enough points to keep this close and cover, although I honestly I feel they win outright.

Houston Texans -6 v. New York Giants
You k now the season is rapidly deteriorating for you when everyone is cheering the demotion of the starting right tackle, as the Giants' fans are with Erik Flowers.  The Giants defense has actually performed very well this year, but the Texans pass rush is going to be too much for New York.

Tennessee Titans +10 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Blaine Gabbert couldn't win in Jacksonville the first time around, and I don't think he will this time, either.  However, I am just not ready to starting betting on Jacksonville giving up double digit spreads.  Leonard Fournette is out again, and the Jaguars are 4-0 in games he does not play. That doesn't mean they will win by 10, though.

San Francisco 49ers +6 at Kansas City Chiefs 
Kansas City has looked great in putting up the most points in the NFL this year (even with only the 6th best Total Offense), but their defense is last overall, last against the pass and 29th in points given up.    Kansas City may win, but San Francisco will put up some points against the Chiefs.  Likewise, San Franscisco is 25th against the pass so expect big numbers from Patrick Mahomes again.

Miami Dolphins -3 v. Oakland Raiders
Oakland is in further disarray, as this week Gruden said "it is hard to find an elite pass rusher", despite just having traded away Khalil Mack.  Now we here that Gruden has his own personal circle of advisers outside of the management of the team.  Who does he think he is, Donald Trump?

Minnesota Vikings -16 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
This is such an asinine spread that nobody in their right mind should even think about picking it.  But, sometimes there is a line that just seems a little too easy to pick, and there is a reason for that.  I am not taking the easy way on this one.  I hesitantly take the Vikings and give up three scores.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
The Eagles should get a big boost from Carson Wentz, and should coast to an easy victory in this game.  SHOULD.

Washington Racists +2 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
A home underdog with the number 1 total defense - and number 1 passing defense - in the NFL in what should be a close game.  Give me the points.  Plus, apparently Aaron Rodgers has a little bit of a knee injury.

Chicago Bears -6 at Arizona Cardinals
To date Chicago has been one of the pleasant surprises of the league and Arizona has been the second worst team in the league.  I'll gladly give these points on the road, although if if was 7 1/2, I would likely select Arizona.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 at Los Angeles Rams
Yes the Rams have looked spectacular.  But, this could be a Super Bowl preview, and I expect Phillip Rivers to keep this game relatively close.

Dallas Cowboys +1 at Seattle Seahawks
I am not sure that I am excited about this matchup at all.  Dallas does have a pretty good pass rush, and Seattle's offensive line looks better than only Florida State's.

New England Patriots -6 1/2 at Detroit Lions
As we all know, I am not a fan or road favorites, but hasn't shown any real life this season, and we know that Belichick is pissed at his team's performance last week against Jacksonville.  So much so that they traded for Josh Gordon.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Ryan Fitzpatrick against a Steelers secondary that is abysmal. The only reason they aren't ranked worse (15th in pass defense) is because game one was against the Cleveland.  Unleash the FitzMagic!!!

Big Bet
Miami Dolphins -3 v. Oakland Raiders
Oakland is in further disarray, as this week Gruden said "it is hard to find an elite pass rusher", despite just having traded away Khalil Mack.  Now we here that Gruden has his own personal circle of advisers outside of the management of the team.  Who does he think he is, Donald Trump?

I honestly considered a number of games here, but most of those picks were on the road, and giving up 3 points isn't that much to fret over.

Last Week's Record: 6-10-1

Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 17-14-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $145