Picks of the Week

 

As predicted, I came back down to earth this week, but still up overall.  Hoping for a bounce-back today!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

San Francisco 49ers -10 1/2 v. New York Giants

Home team on a short week, even giving up double digits.  If this was not on Thursday night, I would have made this my big bet.

Minnesota Vikings pick 'em v. Los Angeles Chargers

Not quite traveling to the eastern time zone, but close enough considering the Chargers are last in psasing defense, and total defense, and 30th in scoring defense.  Expect a big game from the "Noon Nightmare".

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Week 1 may have awaken the Bills who thumped the Raiders last week and may have the same in store for the Commanders this week.

Green Bay Packers + 1 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Saints played Monday night, and although 2-0, they have not impressed in close wins over the Titans and Panthers.  I will take the home team and the points.

Detroit Lions -3 v. Atlanta Falcons

A battle of two really good-looking running backs in Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson.  With David Montgomery out, look for Gibbs to shine with more touches, and Detroit is better on the outside with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Doing this solely because the Browns played Monday night.  Their defense is legit so far, but those stats were accumulated against a suppressed Bengals offense and the offensively putrid Pittsburgh Steelers.  Give me the points in a low-scoring game, especially with no Nick Chubb.

Houston Texans +7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars win this, but Houston scores enough points to cover.  You probably didn't know that the Texans have the 5th best passing offense in the league so far this year, did you?

New York Jets +2 1/2 v. New England Patriots

This bet is waaaaayyyyy against the grain, but getting points at home in a divisional game is something I love to take.  And, the Patriots are underwhelming offensively and defensively, so they may not score enough points to cover, as they only average 18.5 points a game.

Miami Dolphins -6 v. Denver Broncos

No Jaylen Waddle concerns me, but that can only slow down, and not stop, the number 1 passing and total offense in the NFL.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Lamar Jackson has completed 75% of his passes.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Until the Bears can show some excitement, I am picking against them - almost no matter the spread.

Seattle Seahawks -4 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are underwhelming offensively (32nd in passing, 30th in scoring, 28th in total offense), AND they are playing without Bryce Young.  Plus, short week for the Panthers.

 

Dallas Cowboys -12 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

This is such a ridiculous spread that I had to pick the Cowboys.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I do not like this pick, but Pittsburgh played Monday night, and I will win way more than I lose picking against the short week team, especially if they are on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Eagles win this game handily, as the Bucs are imposters at 2-0, having beaten the Vikings in week 1 - where anything can happen - and the lowly Bears.

Los Angeles Rams + 2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Especially if Joe Burrow doesn't play.  The Rams are 3rd in total offense, 3rd in passing offense, 5th in passing defense and 7th in total defense.  Conversely, the Bengals are last in total offense, 30th in passing offense, 28th in rushing offense, and the deense is just as bad - ranking 31st in rushing defense and 25th in total defense.

Big Bet:

Miami Dolphins -6 v. Denver Broncos

No Jaylen Waddle concerns me, but that can only slow down, and not stop, the number 1 passing and total offense in the NFL.

I thought about the Bills here, but they are on the road, and I love the Houston pick, but also on the road.  Settling on this game, but still pretty confidant.

Last Week's Record:  6-7-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  16-13-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($335)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $155