Picks of the Week

 

A decent bounce-back week last week.  Not great, but finished in the positive, so I will take it!  Games start early this weekend because the Jaguars have a home game in London.  I imagine there are a lot of Londoners that have no idea why Blake Bortles isn't in the Hall of Fame, much less not starting!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers + 2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Home team on a short week.  This was a disaster.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons (London)

Home game for Jacksonville.  Atlanta's best feature is their running game, 10th in the NFL.  Jacksonville stops the run (7th in the NFL).

Chicago Bears +3 v. Denver Broncos

Imagine giving up 70 points one week and being favored on the road the next week.  By the way Dolphins fans, a field goal last week would not have broken the NFL single-game points record.  I know they kept saying 72 was the recod on television, but the Bears beat the Washington Racists 73-0 in the 1940 NFL championship game, behind the immortal Sid Luckman.

Houston Texans +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Houston has the 6th best passing offense in the NFL.  Pittsburgh is 22nd in pass defense.  T.J. Watt may get a couple of sacks, but the back-end of this defense will likely give up over 300+ yards to C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell and company.

Los Angeles Rams +1 v. Indianapolis Colts

I hate that Indianapolis is in the Eastern time zone, because the betting rules say take the Eastern time zone team in this slot.  Also the Rams played Monday night.  Everything about this matchup screams Indianapolis.  But seriously, how are the Colts 2-1?  The have the 20th ranked offense and the 22nd ranked defense.  Los Angeles meanwhile is 1-2 with the 9th best offensive team and the 7th best defensive team.

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Two 0-3 teams, and not the worst game on the board. See Denver v. Chicago.

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay played Monday night, so this is a short week for them.  They also have the 27th ranked offense and 23rd ranked defense.  And those stats come from having played the Bears.

Washington Commanders +9 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are better.  Wayyyy better.  But this is a big number and Pilly is playing on a short week.  I'll take the points.

Buffalo Bills -3 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody is all over the Dolphins because of their 70-spot last week againt Denver, but you cannot carry-over points.  Yes the Dolphins are electric offensively, 1st in total offense, scoring offense, passing offense, and rushing offense, but those stats are incredibly skewed due to the Denver game.  Buffal is 2nd in total defense, 2nd in scoring defense, and 3rd in passing defense.  Miami's offense and Buffalo's defense are both sturdy.  But, Miami's defense is 20th in scoring, 20th in passing, 24th in rushing and 24th in total defense, whereas Buffalo's offense is 2nd in scoring, 7th in rushing and 8th in total offense.  Buffalo's offense is better than Miami's defense, so I will take the Bills.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Yes, Cincinnati is an away team on a short week, however it looked as if they found their offensive mojo in the second half on Monday night.  If that carries over, then we have the Bengals of the last couple of years and they annihilate Tennessee.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens,

The Browns outrank the Ravens in every offensive category (total, scoring, rushing, and passing.)  Plus, their defense is E-LITE:  2nd in rushing defense, 1st in third down conversion percentage, 1st in passing defense, 1st in total defense and 1st in scoring defense.  Give me the Browns.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 v. Las Vegas Raiders

We do not know who will start at quarterback for the Raiders.  We do know it won't be Jimmy Garoppolo (consussion protocol).  It will be Brian Hoyer or Aiden McConnell.  I'll take the Chargers and their second ranked offense.

 

Dallas Cowboys -6 v. New England Patriots

Bounce back game.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at San Francisco 49ers 

San Francisco may still win easily, but this is a lot of points in a divisional game.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at New York Jets

Kansas City is 1-0 in ass-whippings in game in which Taylor Swift attends.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at New York Giants

Do we really have to have two prime time New Jersey games this weekend?  Seattle's defense is practically worthless (30th total, 31st passing, 29th scoring), but the Giants offense is equally worhtless, (24th rushing, 28th passing, 28th total, 31st scoring).  Put it this way, the Bears average more points than the Giants do.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Yes, Cincinnati is an away team on a short week, however it looked as if they found their offensive mojo in the second half on Monday night.  If that carries over, then we have the Bengals of the last couple of years and they annihilate Tennessee.

I usually don't like selecting road teams for my "Big Bet", much less road teams giving points, but nothing about this Tennessee team excites me, and I really think Cincinnati started to clikc in the second half last week.

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  25-20-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $280

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $435

Picks of the Week

 

As predicted, I came back down to earth this week, but still up overall.  Hoping for a bounce-back today!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

San Francisco 49ers -10 1/2 v. New York Giants

Home team on a short week, even giving up double digits.  If this was not on Thursday night, I would have made this my big bet.

Minnesota Vikings pick 'em v. Los Angeles Chargers

Not quite traveling to the eastern time zone, but close enough considering the Chargers are last in psasing defense, and total defense, and 30th in scoring defense.  Expect a big game from the "Noon Nightmare".

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Week 1 may have awaken the Bills who thumped the Raiders last week and may have the same in store for the Commanders this week.

Green Bay Packers + 1 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Saints played Monday night, and although 2-0, they have not impressed in close wins over the Titans and Panthers.  I will take the home team and the points.

Detroit Lions -3 v. Atlanta Falcons

A battle of two really good-looking running backs in Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson.  With David Montgomery out, look for Gibbs to shine with more touches, and Detroit is better on the outside with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Doing this solely because the Browns played Monday night.  Their defense is legit so far, but those stats were accumulated against a suppressed Bengals offense and the offensively putrid Pittsburgh Steelers.  Give me the points in a low-scoring game, especially with no Nick Chubb.

Houston Texans +7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars win this, but Houston scores enough points to cover.  You probably didn't know that the Texans have the 5th best passing offense in the league so far this year, did you?

New York Jets +2 1/2 v. New England Patriots

This bet is waaaaayyyyy against the grain, but getting points at home in a divisional game is something I love to take.  And, the Patriots are underwhelming offensively and defensively, so they may not score enough points to cover, as they only average 18.5 points a game.

Miami Dolphins -6 v. Denver Broncos

No Jaylen Waddle concerns me, but that can only slow down, and not stop, the number 1 passing and total offense in the NFL.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Lamar Jackson has completed 75% of his passes.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Until the Bears can show some excitement, I am picking against them - almost no matter the spread.

Seattle Seahawks -4 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are underwhelming offensively (32nd in passing, 30th in scoring, 28th in total offense), AND they are playing without Bryce Young.  Plus, short week for the Panthers.

 

Dallas Cowboys -12 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

This is such a ridiculous spread that I had to pick the Cowboys.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I do not like this pick, but Pittsburgh played Monday night, and I will win way more than I lose picking against the short week team, especially if they are on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Eagles win this game handily, as the Bucs are imposters at 2-0, having beaten the Vikings in week 1 - where anything can happen - and the lowly Bears.

Los Angeles Rams + 2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Especially if Joe Burrow doesn't play.  The Rams are 3rd in total offense, 3rd in passing offense, 5th in passing defense and 7th in total defense.  Conversely, the Bengals are last in total offense, 30th in passing offense, 28th in rushing offense, and the deense is just as bad - ranking 31st in rushing defense and 25th in total defense.

Big Bet:

Miami Dolphins -6 v. Denver Broncos

No Jaylen Waddle concerns me, but that can only slow down, and not stop, the number 1 passing and total offense in the NFL.

I thought about the Bills here, but they are on the road, and I love the Houston pick, but also on the road.  Settling on this game, but still pretty confidant.

Last Week's Record:  6-7-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  16-13-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($335)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $155

Picks of the Week

 

Really nice start to the NFL season is leaving me pumped for Week 2. Great record for the week, Rodgers not playing for the rest of the year; for what more could a person ask?

Travelling this weekend (Tennessee v. Florida game) so typing this on my phone.  Please forgice any typos because of this 

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Home team on a short week, plus Prime Time Kirk Cousinsa equals easy Philly win.

Chicago Bears +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When two bad teams play each other, take the points 

Green Bay Packers + 2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay looked really good last week.  Granted it was againat Chicago, but still.  A.J. Dillon is a more than capable backip if Aaron Jones cannot go 

Indianapolis Colts + 2 1/2 at Houston Texans

Taking points when two bad teams play each other, plus C.J. Stroud is a little banged up already.

Detroit Lions -4 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Detroit looked GOOD in a week 1 win over the Chiefs, plus, Seattle is a west coast team travelling east and playing in the early time slot.

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

The Chargers played the best of all of the losing teams last week, and, if you go check my picks Insaid the Dolphins-Chargers game would be the most exciting of the week.  Explosive offense is too much for Tennessee.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Cincinnati Bengalals

Last week could have been an anonalously bad game for Cincinnati, but I am going to take points against them anyway.

Las Vegas Raiders +8 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Conflicting betting rules in this one:  Las Vegas travelling east and playing at 1:00, and Buffalo on a short week.  I think this one will be close, so I l'll take the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce and Chris Jones returning is huge for Kansas City for the season, but this Jaguars team is a contender, and they are getting points at home.  This is the game to which I am most looking to watch this week.

Los Angeles Rams +7 v. San Francisco 49ers

The Niners are easily the best team in the NFL right now, but I hate giving up points on the toad to a divisional rival.

New York Giants - 4 at Arizona Cardinals

The Giants may have iver-performed last year, but they are not as bad as the Cowboys made them look last week.

Dallas Cowboys -9 v. New York Jets

Yes, this is a lot of points, but the Jets are notnonly on a short week, but on the toad during a short week.  Plus, did you hear that Aaron Rodgers is out for the season with an Achilles injury?

Washington Commanders +3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

In what could be a defensive steuggle, I will take the points 

New England Patriots +3 v. Miami Dolphins

Miami is explosive offensively, but might have problems defensively.  And, although I imitially typed in Miami as my picj here, I just can't gonagainat the established gambling rules, so I will take a home dog in a divisional battle.

Carolina Panthers +3 v. New Orleans

Another home dog in an intradivsional game, but also, not sure either of these teama can score a lot.  Perhaps New Orleans wins 14-13, keeping Chicago in the running for the number 1 pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. Cleveland Browns

Another home intra-divisional underdog.  Pittsburgh bounces bacl from an embarrassing loss, but San Francisco will embarass a lot of teams this year.

Big Bet:

Las Vegas Raiders +8 1/2 at Buffalo Bills:

No real games I like for the bug net, so I will pick the game in which I am getting the most points.

Last Week's Record:  10-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  10-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $490

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $490

Picks of the Week

The NFL is back!!!!  That means that the newest installment of my NFL picks of the week is also back!!!  Yes, this can be humiliating at times, rewarding at others, but for those of you that do or don't like some of my picks, just know it is A LOT more difficult when you force yourself to do EVERY game, and not pick-and-choose the ones you think are the easiest bets.  And with that, I am very much looking forward to this year!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +4 at Kansas City Chiefs

Super Bowl hangover, an improved Lions team, no Travis Kelce, and an unknown wide receiver corps.  I will take the points.

Baltimore Ravens -9 1/2 v. Houston Texans

This Texans team was actually playing tough last year under Lovie Smith, even though they were not very good.  Demeco Ryans has passion, but a rookie quarterback.  Lots of points for week 1, but Lamar Jackson might feel he has something to prove this year.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The last 7 times a quarterback has been taken number 1 overall in the draft, he has lost in  his debut.  That streak should stay alive after this game.

Cleveland Browns +2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Do I honestly think the Bengals will win?  Yes.  Under ordinary circumstances would I have picked the Bengals?  Yes.  Prior to week 1 do we actually know anything about these teams?  No.  That is why I will take the points for a home team playing a division rival - a known betting rule.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 v. San Francisco 49ers

In a refrain that you will read often in this space, west coast team travelling to the east coast and playing in the 1:00 slot fail to cover over 2/3rds of the time.

Washington Commanders -7 v. Arizona Cardinals

There is no chance that the Cardinals are good this year, right?  Josh Dobbs at QB?  Seriously?

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minnesota with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison can be very explosive, with or without Dalvin Cook.

Jacksonville Jaguars -4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis has (1) a rookie quarterback; that (2) wasn't very good in college; with (3) no real stud receivers; and (4) playing without its star running back.

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

I don' think we know anything about how these two teams are going to be.  So, I'll take the points.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Green Bay Packers

No Aaron Rodgers and now no Christian Watson for Jordan Love.  Aaron Jones may gain a ton of yards, but the newly-explosive Bears offense takes over the game.

Seattle Seahawks -5 v. Los Angeles Rams

Could the Rams be in the running for Caleb Williams?

Las Vegas Raiders +3 at Denver Broncos

Does Denver actually have a healthy receiver on its roster?  That is all I could come up with because this is purely speculation.  

Miami Dolphins +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This Miami offense could be unstoppable, and they tried to upgrade their defense.  Mike McDaniel is a rising star in this league.  This might be the most fun game to watch of the weekend.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

The Patriots cut Matt Carrol and re-signed Bailey Zappe.  This means the best Patriots quarterback will be in the stands as the team honors Tom Brady.

New York Giants + 3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I really want to select Dallas here, but I hate giving up points on the road in a divisional matchup.  Dak turns the ball over to keep this really close 27-24 Dallas.

New York Jets +2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Again, I hate giving up pints on the road in in intra-divisional matchup.  Only reason I am picking the Jets.

Big Bet:

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

I was looking for a home team to select for my big bet, preferably receiving points or giving very few, but this looks too enticing to pass up.  Eagles roll!

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0

Year-to-Date Record:  0-0

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):