Picks of the Week

A little bit better last week, so trying to creep out of the red.  Hopefully I can use that momentum to have a big week this week.  A good start by winning Thursday's game, and maybe, just maybe, the London early game can help too.  Let's see.  Was in Jacksonville for the Georgia - Florida game, so travelling today, so I probably won't write much analysis.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Baltimore Ravens +2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Good Thursday night win.  Shaq Barrett did the "Ray Lewis Dance" to taunt Baltimore after a sack.  He then proceeded to tear his achilles.

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Somewhere in London, there is a high schooler who cannot understand why Blake Bortles is not still in the league.

Chicago Bears +10 at Dallas Cowboys

Ten points is an awful lot of points in the NFL.  Even though I am sure Dallas wins this game, I will take the points.  I also know the Bears played Monday night, but this is a lot of points.

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona's defense lets them down in this one.

Miami Dolphins -4 at Detroit Lions

The third best passing team versus the 22nd ranked pass defense.  Miami will gain a lot of yards in the air.

New Orleans + 1 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Two exciting offenses, 1 mediocre defense and 1 bad defense.  The bad defense is in Las Vegas.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Carolina's surprise win came last week.

New England Patriots -3 at New York Jets

Is anybody healthy for the Jets offense?  New England is on a short week, but the Jets just have too many injuries.

Pittsburgh Steelers +10 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I don't particularly like this bet, because Philly could ice this game early, but I don't want to bet on a double digit favorite, even if at home (see Cowboys, Dallas).

Tennessee Titans pick 'em at Houston Texans

Derrick Henry versus the NFL's worst run defense.

New York Giants +3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Saquon Barkley verus the number 29th ranked rush defense in th league.

San Francisco 49ers -1 at Los Angeles Rams

The Super Bowl hangover continues.

Washington Commanders +3 at Indianapolis Colts

We do not know what we are going to get with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback, but I would expect some rookie mistakes.

Buffalo Bills -10 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

This is a lot of points, but you know what, one of the three double digits will probably be covered by the favorite, and I think it will be this one.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati have won 4 of their last 5, and are just better than Cleveland right now.

Byes:  Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers

Big Bet:

Washington Commanders +3 at Indianapolis Colts

We do not know what we are going to get with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback, but I would expect some rookie mistakes.

I am just wondering how psyched Montez Sweat is to be going against a rookie quarterback in his first start!

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  52-51-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $80

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($360)

Picks of the Week

 So last week was my worst week of the year.  Not only did I fall under .500, but I lost the big bet - a big bet that I even wrote was a horrible pick at the time I made it.  Perhaps sometimes I should listen to myself.  Anyway, perhaps a kick-start of a win on Thursday night can bring me out of the red for the season.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Arizaona Cardinals -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Home team on a short week.  This was, finally, a great football game on Thursday night.  Week 1's Buffalo-Los Angeles matchup was a great game by the Bills, but not the Rams, and it was in Week 1, meaning not a short week.  Problem is, we will not get too many games on Thursday nights like this Arizona victory.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

When teams do not score a lot of points (Indianapolis 17.2 per game and Tennessee 19.2 per game), I am going to want to take the points in the spread.  Plus, Matt Ryan is second in passing yards whereas Tennessee's defense is last in the NFL in pass defense.  This is a tough pick because Derrick Henry could have a huge game against Indianapolis' 20th ranked rush defense.

New York Giants +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, the 5-1 Giants are underdogs on the road against Jacksonville.  Although I feel that New York's 5-1 record is not truly indicative of how average a team they are, they seem to come through when it matters most.  Plus, they are tied for 7th in scoring defense.  I'll take the points.

Carolina Panthers +13 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thirteen points in the NFL, on the road, in an intra-divisional game is A LOT of points.  I don't care if they did just trade Christian McCaffrey.  

Washington Commanders +4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

So, did you know that Green Bay only averages 1 passing yard a game more than Washingon?  Sounds crazy, right?  Well, that changes as the Packers have the number 1 passing defense in the NFL, and Washington cannot run very well (24th in the NFL).  Of course, Brian Robinson is back and he looks lively.  So, you know what?  I am going to take the points, and expect a Taylor Heinicke bump.

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit can score, as they are 3rd in the league in scoring offense.  But, the are alos last in the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of 32 points per game.  You read that right, 32 POINTS PER GAME!  Dallas's offense has looked pedestrian, at best, under Cooper Rush.  But, Dak Prescott is back.  Dallas makes a statement.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Honestly, this line looks a little high.  It should be about 4 1/2 in my estimation, but I am not an actuary (and THOSE people are the smartest people on the planet.)  Still, I am going to give the points for two reasons:  (1) Cincinati is 9th in passing offense and Atlanta is 31st in passing defense; and (2) Cincinnati is 3rd in third down percentage offense and Atlanta is 30th in third down percentage defense.  Frankly, you can score a lot of points if the other team cannot stop you on third-down.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Our third consecutive 6 1/2 point spread, and trust me, I hate giving points on all three of the games.  But, I am going to do it, most reluctantly on this game and here is why.  Rushing.  But Pepster, Cleveland has the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL led by Nick Chubb, with some Kareem Hunt thrown in.  Correct, they do.  But, Baltimore is 8th in rushing defense, and could slow down the Browns' runners, some.  And, even with J.K. Dobbins out, Kenyan Drake is averaging more yards per carry than Nick Chubb.  Plus, Lamar Jackson is the 4th leading rusher in the NFL himself.

Denver Broncos +1 1/2 v. New York Jets

This pick is amazingly stupid, except there is a reason the spread is only 1 1/2.  First, the Broncos only give up 16 points per game.  Second, the Jets are travelling to altitude.  Third, is it possible that Wilson being out is the ultimate addition-by-subtraction?  Do the Broncos get a Brett Rypien/Josh Johnson bump?  I say yes.  Or even if they don't, Jets win 10-9.  Denver did play Monday night, which does not bode well for this pick, but Russell Wilson will not play today, and I think that makes the difference.

Houston Texans +7 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders might be the most disappointing team in the NFL right now, and, if they really want to make the playoffs, they have to start winning somewhere.  This looks like the right spot for that.  Easy pickings.  But, we know that sometimes the obvious bet isn't the smartest play.  Houston - as is typical in Lovie Smith-led teams - doesn't give up many points (13th in the league), and if they can hold true to that form today, they will win the bet, if not the game.  Josh Jacobs has himself a game, but the Raiders only win 27-21 in a backdoor cover (which I think is my first backdoor cover prediction this season.)

Los Angeles Chargers -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith has been playing great football, and Kenneth Walker is an emerging star at running back, but the Chargers have won 3 in a row, doing it primarily by passing the ball with the 3rd best passing offense in football.  AND, Just Herbert gets Keenan Allen back from injury after having not played since week 1.  I hate this pick because the Chargers played Monday night, but Keenan Allen didn't, so I will keep it.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 at San Francisco 49ers

Honestly, I am picking the Chiefs because I believe there will be a over-exaggeration of the impacts on the Christian McCaffrey trade.  First, San Francisco can always run the ball, no matter the running back. Second, more passes to McCaffrey means a few less to Deebo, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.  Third, that just seems to be the way the NFL works.  Plus, with San Francisco's expected increased reliance on their running game, Kansas City has the defense (4th in the NFL in rushing defense) to try and combat it.  Now, next week's game for the 49ers with a full week of practice for McCaffrey may be a whole different matter.

Miami Dolphins -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I hate overexaggerating the effects of one player, or one action, or just one of anything.  But, I am going to do it here.  Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa returns, and means the world to the Dolphins and their 2nd ranked passing offense - which now gets the Steelers and their 30th ranked passing defense.

New England Patriots -8 v. Chicago Bears

I have no faith that the Bears can score meaningful points against anyone, much less a Bill Belichick coached team.

Byes:  Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet:

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit can score, as they are 3rd in the league in scoring offense.  But, the are alos last in the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of 32 points per game.  You read that right, 32 POINTS PER GAME!  Dallas's offense has looked pedestrian, at best, under Cooper Rush.  But, Dak Prescott is back.  Dallas makes a statement.

More points than I want to give up for a big bet, but worth it in this case, I think.  Dallas's defense has been amazing, and now the offense can be as well.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  45-44-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($445) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($440)

Picks of the Week

 

An easy win on a big bet salvaged an otherwise losing week.  If one is to select each and every game every week, losing weeks will happen; the key is to make sure those losses are limited and the 49ers definitely helped me there.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Chicago Bears +1 v. Washington Commanders

Despite dominating, Chicago could not pull it out at home.

Minnesota Vikins -3 at Miami Dolphins

Not a big fan of having to take road favorites, but 3 is a small number, and this is the Dolphins of Skylar Thompson.  

New England Patriots +3 at Cleveland Browns

This might be some of the best coaching that Bill Belichick has ever done, and his team is only 2-3.

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I also hate picking west coast teams flying east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, but with Atlanta's 26th ranked defense (29th against the pass), along with their pedestrian offens (22nd overall and 30th in passing), going against the number 1 total defense, number 1 rushing defense and scoring defense, and number 3 passing defense), I'll take my chances with San Francisco.  Especially since they won in the 1:00 time slot at Carolina last week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Ordinarily this would be an absurd bet.  However, Pittsburgh is reeling, and they are still trying to find their footing under Kenny Pickett.  And even though Tampa Bay's office has struggled at times this year, they are still the 3rd passing offense in the league whereas Pittsburgh passing defense is 30th, giving up over 287 yards per game.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at New Orleans Saints

This Saints offense is better than most people would think, ranking 5th in the NFL in total offense, and 10th in rushing and their defense is about the same as the Bengals, but Joe Burrow is returning to the Caesar's Superdome, so I expect him to have a huge game.  Also, the Saints have the 23rd ranked rushing defense so perhaps Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine can get the running game on track.

New York Giants + 5 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore's defense is horrible this year, as they are 28th in total defense, and last in passing defense.  The Giants on the other hand are 2nd in rushing offense, and stingy in giving up points, being 9th in scoring defense.  I think Baltimore wins this game, but the Giants should keep it close.

Green Bay Packers -8 v. New York Jets

On the season, the Jets have a better passing game than the Packers (9th to 19th), but most of that is based upon Joe Flacco's work, not Zach Wilson's.  Strangely, the strength of the Packers this year is defense (2nd in passing defense, 4th in 3rd down defense and 5th in total defense).  Plus, Green Bay has bounced back after every loss this year.  Honestly, I wanted to take the points in this game, but changed my mind as I typed.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Both of these teams are remarkably similar:  16/13 in total offense; 15/13 in passing offense; 7/6 in total defense; 14/16 in passing defense; 6/4 in rushing defense.  So, being that close, I will take the points, plus the fact that Indianapolis is last in scoring in the NFL.

Arizona Cardinals -2 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

The Geno Smith resurgence is an amazing story, but this Seahawks defense is sooooo bad (last overall, and in rushing defense, 31st in scorind defense and 26th in passing defense).

Los Angeles Rams -10 v. Carolina Panthers

So the Rams are playing nowhere near good enough to be a double digit favorite against anyone, except for all of the news that the Panthers are listening to trade offers for absolutely everyone, including Christian McCaffrey.  That cannot be good for morale.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

This should be the most exciting game of the year, on paper, and points should be flying across the board as both teams average over 30 points per game.  But, Buffalo also has a defense (1st in scoring, 2nd overall, 2nd rushing, 5th passing), which will be the difference in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys being undefeated under Cooper Rush is a nice story, but that is exactly what it is.  They are 27th in passing offense, and 24th in points.  The Eagles have a great offense (2nd overall, 5th in scoring, 5th in rushing, 7th in passing) AND a stout defense (4th overall, 6th passing, 7th scoring, 10th rushing).  The Eagles solidify the top spot in the NFC East.

Los Angeles Chargers -5 v. Denver Broncos

This is definitely strength versus strength - The Chargers passing offense (2nd) versus the Broncos passing defense (1st).  Although Denver may be tough to score against, they also have problems scoring themselves, averaging only 15 points per game.  The Chargers by a touchdown.

Byes:  Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I also hate picking west coast teams flying east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, but with Atlanta's 26th ranked defense (29th against the pass), along with their pedestrian offens (22nd overall and 30th in passing), going against the number 1 total defense, number 1 rushing defense and scoring defense, and number 3 passing defense), I'll take my chances with San Francisco.  Especially since they won in the 1:00 time slot at Carolina last week.

I am going to regret this by going to the well one too many times but this bet - that goes against all of the rules for a bet in general, much less a big bet - but I will give it a shot.

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  39-36-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($140) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $5

Picks of the Week

 

So the damn big bet got me this past week, as I finished with more wins than losses, but still lost money.  Guess I need to pay more attention to the big bet.  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Denver Broncos -3 v. Indianapolis Colts

God was this awful.

Green Bay Packers -8 v. New York Giants (in London)

This game is coming to us from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.  I feel like Green Bay will win big because they are basically the Tottenham Hotspur of the NFL, so this should feel like a home game.

Minnesota Vikings -7 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

The Bears still have not given up a touchdown in the second half.  I don't know if that streak will continue, but it probably won't matter.

Detroit Lions +3 at New England Patriots

Let the Bailey Zappe era begin (and end!)

Pittsburgh Steelers +14 at Buffalo Bills

This is just a lot of points.

New York Jets +3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

You would be shocked if I told you that the Jets total offense was better than the Dolphins (8th to 10th) and the Jets defense was WAY better than the Dolphins (8th to 28th.)  Yes I will take the points at home.

Atlanta Falcons +10 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a lot of points considering that the Buccaneers only score 20.5 points per game, and Atlanta is actually 8th in scoring offense in the league.

New Orleans Saints -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle's defense is next-to-last in the NFL is total defense and scoring defense, 29th against the rush and 28th against the pass.

Jacksonville Jaguars -7 v. Houston Texans

I honestly had no idea what I was going to do here, but Jacksonville is the 6th leading scoring team in the NFL, and the Texans are only 26th.  That is as good a place to start as any.

Tennessee Titans -1 at Washington Commanders

I still love typing "Commanders" instead of "Football Team" and "Racists."  This game should be one that nobody wants to watch.

Cleveland Browns +1 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles is a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, so of course I am picking the Browns.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

I was thinking this would be 3 1/2 or 4 points, but I am still taking it at 6 1/2.  Carolina is last in the league in total offense and 18th in total defense.  Those numbers are not going to get it done.

Dallas Cowboys +5 at Los Angeles Rams

The teams are remarkably similar on offense (Rams 26th; Dallas 28th), but Dallas's defense is much, much better.  Los Angeles's defense just doesn't look the same.  Perhaps Von Miller was important?

Philadelphia Eagles -5 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona has been incredibly disappointing so far, and the Eagles are great on offense (2nd overall) and defense (3rd overall.)

Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is one-sided, this time over-relying on its offense as the defense struggles (30th overall, last in oassing defense, 23rd in scoring defense.)

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Patrick Mahomes loves prime time.

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

I was thinking this would be 3 1/2 or 4 points, but I am still taking it at 6 1/2.  Carolina is last in the league in total offense and 18th in total defense.  Those numbers are not going to get it done.

Honestly, I hate taking road teams, much less road favorites, for my big bet, but this seems like the easiest game to pick to me.

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  32-29-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($135) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $145

Picks of the Week

 

So this past week is more the norm for most seasoned gamblers; tremendously close.  We just hope that we finish slightly ahead most week; and thankfully that happened last week.  I will always take a plus week.  Can I keep that up?  We shall see.  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Cincinnati Bengals -4 v. Miami Dolphins

Two Thursday night wins in a row!  Follow the rules and everything eventually comes out allright.

Chicago Bears +3 at New York Giants

I am accused of picking the Bears because they are my favorite team.  I would not do that to my wallet.  I am 1-1-1 on Bears picks this year so far.  I pick them here not because in the back recesses of my mind I think they will win, but because I am getting 3 points against a team that is playing a 1:00 game on a short week.  Plus, the Bears are the numbr 2 rushing offense in the NFL and the Giants are the 25th rushing defense.  I will gladly take those points, especially with Leonard Williams out.

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints (in London)

No Jameis Winston, no Alvin Kamara, no Michael Thomas, no Noah Vannet, no Andrus Peat, no Marcus Maye, etc., etc., etc.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 at Houston Texans

If you look just at the scores, you would think that Houston has played everyone tough and close - and you would be right.  But, you really have to look at the real numbers.  Houston is 29th in total offense (25th in passing, 27th in rushing, and 26th in scoring) all while being in last in third-down conversions.  On defense Houston is 31st, while being last in rushing defense.  Their salvation, tied for 12th in scoring defense.  Those numbers cannot hold.  I'll take the Chargers.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Detroit went from playing everyone tough last year to actually playing this year, at least on offense.  The Lions are 2nd in scoring offense, 3rd in total offense and rushing offense.  Yes, they will miss Amon-Ra St. Brown, and yes the defense isn't quite up to the offense's levels (last in scoring defense), but Seattle is a poor offensive team.  I'll take the Lions.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

In most seasons, a 2-1 Jaguars team that is first in their division would be the story to date in the NFL.  Not this year.  The story this year is the Philadelphia Eagles and their dynamic offense (1st overall, 3rd in passing, 5th in scoring and 7th in rushing - not to mention 2nd in 3rd down conversions.)  The Jags are lead by their defense however (1st in rushing, 4th in scoring, 7th in total defense), but their 21st ranked passing defense will let them down.  They have nobody to cover A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.

New York Jets +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Zach Wilson is back, but I am not sold on him yet.  What I am sold on is that the Steelers defense is lousy (17th in scoring, 22nd in passing, 25 in total, 28th in rushing), and their offense is even worse (last in total offense, 28th in passing, 22nd in rushing, and thanks to some defensive touchdowns, 19th in scoring).  And Pittsburgh is GIVING points.  I'll take them.

Cleveland Browns -1 at Atlanta Falcons

Stop me if you have heard this before ... Cleveland has the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL.  They will bruise and batter the Falcons, who are a respectable 16th against the run, but 23rd in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Neither of these teams are where they thought they would be at this point, but both teams had their first victory - and good ones at that - last week, with the Titans beating the Raiders and the Colts defeating the Chiefs.  Both teams have been below par offensively, while the Colts have at least been playing defense (6th against the rush, 3rd overall.)  I, however, don't think the offensive rankings are indicative of either of these teams capabilities, so I am just going to take the points.

Dallas Cowboys -3 v. Washington Commanders

I just love typing "Commanders" instead of "Football Team" and "Racists."  But, I am going to take Dallas here.  Their offense has been very respectable under Cooper Rush, and they are at home.  Washington's previously strong defense has not been so this year (28th in total defense and scoring defense).  Washington has been winning the third down battles on offense (6th) and defense (5th), but that isn't sustainable when you aren't getting the job done on the other downs.

Buffalo Bills -3 at Baltimore Ravens

This game should be incredibly exciting.  The Ravens have the top scoring offense in the NFL while the Bills are 3rd.  However, the Bills have the number 1 passing offense and the Ravens are last in the NFL (granted a lot of that occurred in 1 game, but still).  Giving the points on the road because of the Bills defense (1st overall, 2nd in rushing and passing, 4th in scoring.)

Arizona Cardinals +1 at Carolina Panthers

Nobody wants to watch this game.  I mean nobody.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders at 0-3 are the most disappointing team so far in the NFL.  They are 28th in rushing offense, 21st in total defense, and just generally boring.  Denver has been playing great defense (2nd in scoring, 3rd in total and passing, 6th in rushing) and are getting points in a division rivalry.  I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers -9 1/2 v. New England Patriots

I know, I know Bill Belichick blah, blah, blah.  Also Brain Hoyer.  I would actually be excited to see Bailey Zappe come and sling it around, but we probably won't.  At least I have Damien Harris in fantasy.

Kansas City Chiefs +1 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa's offense has been horrible (28th in total offense, 25th in rushing offense, 22nd in passing and 22nd in scoring).  The defense has given up the fewest points in the NFL, but we all know Kansas City can score points.  So, I'll take some here.

Los Angeles Rams +1 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

The Rams offense has been paltry so far this year, but they have too many players for that to last.  Unfortunately they are runing up against a tough 49ers defense (1st against the pass, 2nd in total defense, 3rd in scoring defense and 4th against the run.)  Everything says take the 49ers at home.  So, I am going the opposite direction.  The Rams finally shed their Super Bowl hangover.

Big Bet:

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Detroit went from playing everyone tough last year to actually playing this year, at least on offense.  The Lions are 2nd in scoring offense, 3rd in total offense and rushing offense.  Yes, they will miss Amon-Ra St. Brown, and yes the defense isn't quite up to the offense's levels (last in scoring defense), but Seattle is a poor offensive team.  I'll take the Lions.

Detroit is playing at home, and not giving up too many points - which is the recipe I like for a big bet.  My other thoughts were the Chargers (giving up points on the road), Philadelphia (giving up too many points) and the Browns on the road).   Man, I really want to take Cleveland here.

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  24-22-2

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $180 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $280