Picks of the Week

 

Merry Christmas weekend everybody, and the NFL is in full effect trying to take over another holiday.  Games on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, and going head-to-head with the NBA's marquis matchups on Christmas Day.  As you will see from my first pick, which league won yesterday.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Minnesota Vikings +6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

So, after family time, and family lunch, this house had on the NBA games (GO HEAT!!!)  Paying so much attention to what is technically the real  not actual start to the NBA season (although this year is the actual start to the season), that we basically forgot about this game.  So much so that I did not put my pick out in the ether.  But, everyone that reads this blog regularly knows that I prefer home teams on short weeks, so this makes this game an easy win, right?  Nope.  Being so discombobulated by rushing the selection, my dumb ass selected Minnesota because for some reason I thought they were the home team.  I realized it before the first score, but, cannot change a bet after the game starts.  Oops.

Detroit Lions +10 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

So yes, the home team on a short week, but also a home team getting double digit points.  Tampa Bay has not been dominating teams, even in wins, and Detroit has played some difficult teams close, despite being run through by the Titans last week.

Arizona Cardinals -5 v. San Francisco 49ers

I would love nothing more than to cheer for a Cardinals loss this week, potentially putting them into a tie with the Chicago Bears for the final playoff spot, but I do not see it happening here, especially with a depleted San Francisco team coming off three straight losses to the Bills (understandable), Washington (OK) and Dallas (huh?).

 

Miami Dolphins -3 at Las Vegas Raiders

Not the home team on a short week, but home teams on short weeks win about 2/3 of the time - perhaps this is the third time.  (Although with my luck Tampa covers and the Raiders win this game - but that is why they call it gambling).  The Dolphins have a shockingly good defense, and by shocking it is because they are 18th in passing defense, 19th in rushing defense, and 20th in total defense, but 1st in scoring defense).  The Raiders are not good enough on offense to exploit this, so I will take the Dolphins, even as a road favorite, especially since the Dolphins are starting to open up the playbook for Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa.

Chicago Bears -7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

So your boy is still holding out hope that he might be able to attend the game (currently in Jacksonville).  Why would I pick the Bears as a more than TD favorite on the road?  Well, the Jaguars are currently 28th in passing defense, 30th in rushing defense, 30th in scoring defense and dead last (32nd) in total defense.  Trubisky and the Bears offense are clicking a bit under Bill Lazor's playcalling and they should score a lot of points this week.

New York Jets +9 v. Cleveland Browns

The Browns have won 5 of their last 6, but each game has been close (3 points, 5 points, 2 points, 6 points, 5 points and a 14 point victory over the Giants last week).  The Jets have little hope of winning two in a row, but their rushing defense is 14th in the league, so perhaps they slow down Chubb and Hunt enough to keep this close.

Baltimore Ravens -10 1/2 v. New York Giants

The Ravens, who are first in the league in rushing offense, have scored over 34 in each of their last 3 games (all wins), behind a sudden surge of passing from Lamar Jackson (6TDs, 1 INT) during that span.

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

We should not overreact to the Bengals victory over Pittsburgh last week, as Pittsburgh was slipping by some teams even during their winning streak, but, the Texans are spiraling, having lost 3 in a row by a combined 42 points.  However, two of those losses were to the Colts.  Houston's is getting an MVP-type season from DeShaun Watson (second in passing yards and QB rating).  Plus, Cincinnati is on a short week.

Atlanta Falcons +11 at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City has won 9 in a row, by (from most recent) 3, 6, 6, 3, 4, 2, 26 (Jets), 27 (Broncos), and 9.  Atlanta has the 4th best passing offense in the league, and although missing Julio Jones, should still score enough points to keep this game close.

Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis, with a win here, could possibly move up to second in the AFC playoff standings, whereas a loss by Pittsburgh could put them in to a tie with the Browns for the AFC North title, one game up on the Ravens.  This would set up fireworks in the final week with the Steelers playing the Browns (and Ravens playing the Bengals).  I expect all of this to happen.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Denver Broncos

Justin Herbert has had a great rookie campaign, and looks to finish strong against a Broncos defense that might be missing rusher Bradley Chubb.

Washington Football Team -1 v. Carolina Panthers

I am making this selection on the premise that Alex Smith returns from his calf injury for the game at 80-85%.  If this doesn't happen, this pick is not going to win.

Los Angeles Rams +1 at Seattle Seahawks

The Rams got caught looking ahead to this game last week, and dropped a game to the Jets that could have put them in a tie for the division lead with Seattle.  Because of that, Seattle can clinch the division with a win today.  The Rams counter with an amazing defense that ranks 3rd in scoring, 2nd in 3rd down percentage and rushing defense, and 1st in passing and total defense.  Russell Wilson certainly will challenge any defense, but I expect Los Angeles to be up for the challenge.

Philadelphia Eagles -2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

So Dallas is playing better with Tony Pollard in the backfield instead of Ezekial Elliott, but Philadelphia has been playing MUCH better with Jalen Hurts at quarterback instead of Carson Wentz.  Both teams still have a shot at the playoffs, but Jalen Hurts has a much more recent winning background, so I will take the Eagles in this game.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has had a disappointing season against the spread, and a mediocre run defense which will take on the the NFL's leading rusher and biggest offensive tank in Derrick Henry.  It would not surprise me if Tennessee won this one outright, but I do think the run game keeps Aaron Rodgers off the field enough that this game will be close.

New England Patriots +7 v. Buffalo Bills

These teams have already played once this year, with the Bills squeeking by the Patriots with a three point win in Buffalo.  The Bills have gone 5-1 since that point, but the Patriots are a respectable 4-3 since that game as well.  And, do we think Belichick has learned more or less about the Bills since then?  I expect a close game in Foxboro.

  

Big Bet

Arizona Cardinals -5 v. San Francisco 49ers

I would love nothing more than to cheer for a Cardinals loss this week, potentially putting them into a tie with the Chicago Bears for the final playoff spot, but I do not see it happening here, especially with a depleted San Francisco team coming off three straight losses to the Bills (understandable), Washington (OK) and Dallas (huh?).

Honestly, I just want to get my Big Bet out of the way early, and have something to cheer for today, in case I do have the opportunity to go to the Bears game tomorrow.  Other games I considered were Ravens (double digits) and Indianapolis (visiting team), so I selected Arizona.

Last Week's Record:  6-9-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  115-104-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($555)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $205

Picks of the Week

 

Worst week of the year.  Just horrible.  With a capital HOR!  Took away all my earnings from the year, and possibly puts me in the negative.  I won't know until I get to the bottom of this column and actually calculate it.  [Ed. Note - It did erase all my profits for the year.] Oh well.  Stretch run here we come.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Home team, short week.  Chargers with virtually no receivers.  Then Derek Carr gets hurt, then fumbles, then field goals instead of touchdowns and that's football.

Denver Broncos + 5 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Denver has been playing teams really close, winning by 5 at Carolina and by 6 at Kansas City in the last two games.  This game is a home game, on a short week in altitude.  Plus, Denver is a respectable 11th in third down percentage, and getting the defense off the field is important, especially in Denver.

Green Bay Packers - 8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Packers are 2-1 in the last 3 games against a spread in which they were favored by more than 1 touchdown.  The "will he or won't he play" thing with McCaffrey has to be wearing on this team that has played really tough all season despite its 4-9 record.  The Packers are just too much right now.  Plus, I pick the home team on a short week.

  

Chicago Bears +3 at Minnesota Vikings

Let's not kid ourselves, I am taking whichever team is getting points in this clunker.

Indianapolis Colts -7 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Two weeks ago, I would have taken Houston in this game behind DeShaun Watson's remarkable season, figuring that the Texans lost by 6.  Now, the Texans are reeling, coming off a humbling at the hands of the Chicago Bears.  Houston's defense is 31st in total defense, 24th in passing defense, 31st in rushing defense, and 25th in scoring defense.  Jonathan Taylor to have a great game.

Detroit Lions +11 at Tennessee Titans

I know that Green Bay is a divisional rival of Detroit, and those games are always tough, but the Lions only lost by a touchdown to Green Bay.  I just think 11 points is too much.  Detroit 31-21.

Atlanta Falcons +6 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Who knew that Atlanta was going to play an important part in this year's playoff hunt, playing the Buccaneers twice in the last three games.  Tampa Bay is 21st in the passing defense and Atlanta is 6th in passing offense.  Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley keep Atlanta in this game.

Baltimore Ravens -13 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

This spreak is difficulty, because the streaky Jaguars, despite losting 12 in a row after an opening week over the Indianapolis Colts (who would have guessed that at this point in the season), have had some close losses.  Not this week as it will be tough with the Jaguars and their 30th ranked rush defense take on the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL.   Short week for Baltimore, so the spread is probably too high, but why not.

Miami Dolphins -2 v. New England Patriots

Miami always plays New England tough in Miami Gardens, even when a great disparity between the quality of the two teams existed.  This is a much different season, and Miami learned a lot about themselves in a tough loss to Kansas City.  Plus, Tuanigamnualepola Tagavailoa.

Seattle Seahawks -6 at Washington Football Team

West coast team travelling east playing the early game, except Russel Wilson has flipped those stats covering about 80% of the time in that situation.  Make it 100% of the time with Dwayne Haskins starting.  I still love typng "Football Team".

Dallas Cowboys +3 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco has had a strong season considering they lost all 41 starters to injury, 22 of them in the same game.  But, as the season has grinded along, they are just worn down.  I expect Dallas to capitalize on that.

Los Angeles Rams -17 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a ridiculous line in an NFL game, but the Jets have lost by 17 or more 7 times this year.  And, this bet makes this game actually exciting.  Well, that and I have Jared Goff in the semi-finals of one of my fantasy leagues.

Arizona Cardinals -6 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Did Arizona right the ship last week by beating the Giants after 3 consecutive losses?  Or, is Jalen Hurts the remedy that Philadelphia needed to start to scare some teams and make a playoff run?  I think Arizona is playing the NFC East at just the right time.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at New Orleans Saints

The Saints desperately need Drew Brees back, as Taysom Hill is limited.  I think the Saints wished they played Jameis Winston a bit more during Brees' absence.  As it stands, they are going to lose their playoff bye.

New York Giants +6 v. Cleveland Browns

Cleveland is by far the better team in this game.  But, now hear me out, the Giants are 7th in the NFL in rushing defense, and might be able to slow down the Browns vaunted running game, which is third in the NFL.  That, and Cleveland has to experience a bit of a letdown after their stunningly close loss to Baltimore on Monday night (and this is a short week for Cleveland).

Pittsburgh Steelers -13 at Cincinnati Bengals

Brandon Allen.  Did I say Brandon Allen?  I meant Ryan Linley!

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers - 8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Packers are 2-1 in the last 3 games against a spread in which they were favored by more than 1 touchdown.  The "will he or won't he play" thing with McCaffrey has to be wearing on this team that has played really tough all season despite its 4-9 record.  The Packers are just too much right now.  Plus, I pick the home team on a short week.

I really, really wanted to select Seattle here, but it is always better to take a home team.  In Aaron Rodgers we trust.  In Aaron Rodgers we hate, but we trust.

Last Week's Record:  4-12

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  109-95-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($985)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $760

Picks of the Week

 

Another really good week.  Could have been a great week, but for the damn Big Bet, and the damn Bears, who never once looked like they were going to lose until the strip sack in the fourth quarter.  Otherwise, the money would have been great.  Still up thanks to a 10-5 record.  Hopefully we can keep this rolling.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots +5 at Los Angeles Rams

Yes, I know, always take the home team on a short week.  But, the Patriots played in LA last week, and stayed on the west coast, so no travel.  I thought, for once, perhaps Belichick and found a way around the betting rules.  I thought wrong.  Perhaps it is because they were not at home for an entire week plus.

Houston Texans -2 at Chicago Bears

Just to think, DeShaun Watson was supposed to be playing in this game, except for the home team.  I will never forgive the Bears for that (or picking Curtis Enis over Randy Moss, but I digress.)

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville gets a jolt at home, to lose by 7.  Interestingly, the Jaguars have not allowed Derrick Henry to rush for 100 yards in any of his 4 games in Jacksonville, which is virtually Henry's home.  That fact, and perhaps the Titans let up just a bit against the Jaguars means they win, but don't cover.

Carolina Panthers -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

This game is an absolute crapshoot.  I have heard from lots of "experts" and talked to a lot of friends, and the consensus is all over the board (meaning no consensu).  I'll just take the home team, if I have to have a reason to justify it.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys' defense is atrocious (last in the NFL in rushing defense and scoring; 24th in total defense.)  Add that to the fact that Dallas is playing on a short week, and giving points.  I will take them.

Miami Dolphins +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City, although winning, has not been dominant.  In fact, there last 4 wins have been by a combined 15 points, and that is only because they beat Denver by 6 last week.  Miami has been playing tough, solid football in all three phases of the game.  On top of that, Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa is starting to get comfortable on the field behind center.

New York Giants +2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

This was a really tough one for me to choose.  Arizona has lost 3 in a row after defeating Buffalo. So, does that mean they are sliding, or does that mean they are due?  Well, they aren't quite a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing at 1, but they are coming from the Mountain time zone, so I am going to take the home points.  Should the Giants when this game, they would have identical records with Arizona.

Minnesota Vikings +6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

How is this not a 3 point spread?  I know Tampa Bay is at home, but geez, 6 1/2 seems high.  Strength on strength in this game as Minnesota - which relies heavily on Dalvin Cook - will be challenged by the NFL's number 1 rated rush defense.

  

Las Vegas Raiders +3 v. Indianapolis Colts

Honestly, I just didn't want to pick a road favorite here.  No other reason.

New York Jets +15 at Seattle Seahawks

I know that Seattle is very, very good offensively (3rd in total offens, 4th in scoring offense), and their defense has played much better as of late, but the Jets have recently lost by 3 to the Raiders, 6 to the Chargers, 3 to the Patrtiots, and 8 to the Bills.  They only other games in their last 6 have been a 24-0 shutout and a 20-3 loss to the Dolphins, who clearly have their number.  They have been playing teams pretty close, so I will take 2+ touchdowns.

Green Bay Packers -8 at Detroit Lions

Seems like I have to pick another road favorite.  If this spread was 10, with it being an intra-divisional game, I would have gone the other way, but at 8, I will take Aaron Rodgers.

Atlanta Falcons +1 at Los Angeles Chargers

I don't know what think about this one.  This is also strength-on-strength, with Atlanta's passing offense (without Julio Jones) going against the Chargers passing defense (5th in the NFL).  Everything about this game tells me to take the Chargers, so I am taking the Falcons.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Maybe Jalen Hurts is just the jolt that the Eagles need, however the announcement that Jason Peters is done for the season - and his career - is going to be too much.

Washington Football Team +3 at San Francisco 49ers

This defense line for Washington is outstanding - and first rounders all (Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen.)  Plus, Alex Smith is THE best story in the NFL this year.  And, San Francisco is on a short week.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

No, I am not overreacting to Pittsburgh's loss to Washington last week as everyone should have seen that coming after Pittsburgh's tumultuous prior week regareding scheduling of their game with the Ravens.  But, before that, they had not looked particularly dominant.  Despite Buffalo playing on a short week, I am taking the Bills due to the fact that they have been clicking of late.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

The Browns played their absolute best last week against Tennessee, and there is no way that they play like that twice in a row.  Yes, I am violating all types of gambling rules in this one (visiting intradivisional favorite; taking a team on a short week) but I feel the Browns aren't yet ready for this particular challenge.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -8 at Detroit Lions

Seems like I have to pick another road favorite.  If this spread was 10, with it being an intra-divisional game, I would have gone the other way, but at 8, I will take Aaron Rodgers.

So, really?  I am taking a road favorite in an intra-divisional game, favored by 8 nonetheless, as my big bet.  Yes I am.  Why?  Because Detroit can't do that to me twice in a row, right?  And, because I have more faith in the Packers than the Saints (with Hurts being an unknown betting commodity) and Minnesota getting points.  Washington was a thought also.

Last Week's Record:  10-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  105-83-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $285
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1745

  

What a week.  The NFL schedule week 12 literally took an entire week, starting with the Houston Texans defeat of the Detroit Lions on the traditional Thanksgiving Thursday game, and ending with a thrice re-scheduled and finally played on Wednesday Pittsburgh Steelers win over the Baltimore Ravens, which featured Trace McSorley.  And really, Colin Kaepernick can't play in this NFL?  C'mon.  But, despite the length of the week, it was a fantastic bounce back game for your boy, going 11-5 and nailing my big bet.  So, I will take it and hopefully put together a winning-week streak.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

Yes, the Green Bay Packers hammered the Bears last week, but hear me out.  This was the first game Bill Lazor called the plays with Mitchell Trubisky playing quarterback, and they actually moved the ball.  One horrendous interception in the end zone and one missed face mask on a Trubisky fumble, and the game ends up a lot closer.  I only mention this because the Lions defense is atrocious - 25th in the league in 3rd percentage, 26th in passing defense, 28th in rushing defense, 29th in total defense, and 31st in scoring defense.  Lazor is going to have the Bears moving the ball up and down the field this week, giving Bears fans hope, which Trubisky will take away 2 to 3 weeks later.

Atlanta Falcons +3 v. New Orleans Saints

This Atlanta team might be the best 4-7 team ever, and if they had some coaching and a bit more savvy and clock management on the field would be 7-4.  I'll take points at home in an intradivisional game.  They key is which team's strength wins out - Atlanta's passing offense, or New Orleans' tough passing defense.

Houston Texans +3 v. Indianapolis Colts

For much the same reason as above, I will take the points at home in an intradivisional game.  This is a tough game to figure out as the Texans lose Will Fuller to a suspension for use of performance enhancing drugs, but they gain David Johnson back after 3 weeks on the injured reserve.  All of this may not mean much against Indy's defense (4th in total defense, 6th in passing defense, 7th in rushing defense and 9th in scoring defense).  But, I'll bet that you didn't realize DeShaun Watson has a 112.5 quarterback rating this year, did you?  That puts him third in the NFL behind only Aaron Rodgers 115.5 and Patrick Mahomes (115.5).

New York Jets +8 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are a west coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, and the Raiders are playing without Josh Jacobs.  With Jacobs the Raiders have the 8th best rushing offense in the NFL.  Without him, who knows, but the Jets do have the 11th best rushing defense.

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

This game is likely to be the first game completed on Sunday, as we should expect a lot - and I mean a lot - of running plays.  Cleveland, behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, have the best rushing offense in the NFL whereas Tenneesse - behind Derrick Henry - is no slouch itself; second in the NFL in rushing offense.  The difference is that Cleveland is 9th in rushing defense while Tennessee is 17th.  Honestly, I pick the other way if this is a 2 1/2 or 3 point spread, but with 4 1/2, I'll take those points in a game in which possessions are likely to be limited due to a running clock because of the ground game.

Miami Dolphins -10 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

I am honestly torn on this one, having gone back-and-forth between Miami and Cincinnati before finally settling on Miami.  Cincinnati played the New York Giants close last week, behind a subpar game from Brandon Allen (really what did we expect), but, it was the Giants and Colt McCoy made an appearance.  So basically, they are not good.  I am making this pick based upon Ryan Fitzpatrick starting over Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa, which still really hasn't been officially announced yet, but Fitzpatrick would love to feast on the 22nd ranked pass defense in Cincinnati.

Jacksonville Jaguars +10 at Minnesota Vikings

Mike Glennon is starting for Jacksonville, but he did last week and the Jaguars only lost to Cleveland by 2.  Like Cleveland, Minnesota relies heavily upon its rushing game (6th in rushing offense; 17th in passing offense).  Plus, Minnesota has not looked good lately.

Los Angeles Rams -3 at Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are coming off two straight losses on the road (to the Seahawks and Patriots), and will have to fight to end that streak at home against the Rams and their stout defense (4th in 3rd down % and rushing defense, 3rd in passing defense and scoring defense, and 2nd in total defense).  Kenyan Drake has not been playing well since his return from injury making me wonder when the Cardinals will go back to Chase Edmonds.

  

Seattle Seahawks -11 v. New York Giants

Colt McCoy.  I don't think that even Seattle's short week can make up for the fact that Colt McCoy is playing.

Green Bay Packers -8 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Aaron Rodgers, as mentioned before, has the best QB rating in the NFL this year.  And although the Giants have a pretty good defense, they are vulnerable against the pass (19th in the NFL).  And, Philadelphia is floundering despite being only 1/2 game out of first place in the NFC East.  Plus, Philadelphis is on a short week.

New England Patriots +2 at  Los Angeles Chargers

The Patriots have won 3 of their last 4 games, their only loss being by 1 touchdown at Houston.  New England is 5th in rushing offense and the Chargers are 18th in rushing defense.  Los Angeles is 2nd in passing offense, so we could see some explosive plays, but New England is playing about as good as this version of the Patriots can.

Denver Broncos +13 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

So, before anybody gets carried away, the Chiefs are going to win this game, but 2 TDs is just too much.  But, Kansas City has only won its last 3 games by a combined total of 9 points, and that was to Carolina, Las Vegas, and Tampa Bay.  All good teams, certainly, but not the upper echelon of the league.  So, with some quarterbacks back this week for the Broncos, and being an intra-divisional game, I expect this one to be close-ish.  Kansas City by 10 wouldn't shock me.

Washington Football Team +7 at Pittsburgh Steelers

An incredibly short week for the Steelers, having played on Wednesday afternoon and now having this game moved from Sunday to Monday afternoon at 5:00.  At least they were home on Wednesday, and on this Monday.  The game against the Ravens was a tough, physical battle, as this one is likely to be as well.  The Steelers will be tested by Washington's defense, ranked 7th in scoring, 6th in total defense and 2nd in passing defense.  The Steelers very well may pull out a victory, but 7 seems high under the circumstances.

Buffalo Bills +1 at San Francisco 49ers

I cannot figure out these San Francisco 49ers, and if you say you have, you are a liar.  So, to be fair, I have no idea what is going to happen in the traditional Monday Night game.  But San Francisco's passing defense is 4th in the NFL (5th in total defense), and Buffalo's passing offense is 7th in the NFL (21st in rushing), so it'll be interesting if the 49ers can contain Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and company.  I think not, for no real particular reason.

Dallas Cowboys No Line at Baltimore Ravens

No line pending the Covid-19 situation surrounding Lamar Jackson.  Mark Ingram II, Calais Campbell and others came off the Covid-19 list today.  The announcement on Jackson is expected to be made Monday.  I will make a pick once the line is set.

Bye Week - Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Big Bet

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

Yes, the Green Bay Packers hammered the Bears last week, but hear me out.  This was the first game Bill Lazor called the plays with Mitchell Trubisky playing quarterback, and they actually moved the ball.  One horrendous interception in the end zone and one missed face mask on a Trubisky fumble, and the game ends up a lot closer.  I only mention this because the Lions defense is atrocious - 25th in the league in 3rd percentage, 26th in passing defense, 28th in rushing defense, 29th in total defense, and 31st in scoring defense.  Lazor is going to have the Bears moving the ball up and down the field this week, giving Bears fans hope, which Trubisky will take away 2 to 3 weeks later.

Honestly, I hate making my Big Bet a Chicago Bears game, but I honestly feel like I saw something with the playcalling last week.  Not something like go far in the playoffs, but something that should be able to move the ball well against Detroit, with Allen Robinson getting like 10 catches, 143 yards type of movement.  And, I like some of the other lines, but I don't love them.  Atlanta and Green Bay I considered here, with Atlanta getting points at home a serious consideration, but I will stick with my original thought here.

Last Week's Record:  11-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  95-78-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $700
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1460