Picks of the Week

Wow - Last week was a complete annihilation, eliminating all of my gains for the previous three weeks.  Looks like a need a comeback week, and 2 for 3 on Thanksgiving is a good start.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +3 v. Chicago Bears
Chicago is better, but the are the visiting team on a short week, a road favorite in an intra-divisional game, and starting a backup quarterback.  I took the points at home, and I would do so again.

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Washington Racists
The contra scenario to the above.  I took the better team at home in an intradivisional game when the opponent was away on a short week starting a backup quarterback.

New Orleans Saints -12 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
If this game was Sunday, I doubt that I would have taken New Orleans, but on a short week ...

Oakland Raiders +12 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens win this easily, I just don't think they score enough to cover this spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Buffalo Bills
Hopefully the teams performance against the Steelers last week left a bad taste in the Jaguars mouth.  I am expecting retribution against Buffalo today.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks
Two teams fighting for their playoff life.  Carolina at home, and hosting the early game against a team from the Pacific time zone.  Carolina prevails, and covers.

Cleveland Browns +1 at Cincinnati Bengals
I just feel that Cleveland is ready to turn the corner, and a Cincinnati team struggling on offense (27th in total offense, though 11th in points) AND defense (last in total defense, rush defense and third down percentage; 31st in pass defense and points allowed), is ripe for a home loss.

New York Jets +12 1/2 v. New England Patriots
Yes Tom Brady is playing, but how hurt is he, really?  An improving Jets defense should keep this game close, enough.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 v. New York Giants
My gut really told me to take the Giants and the points here today, but the Giants defense really is not stopping anyone.  Coupled with the fact that despite Saquon Barkley, New York does not run the ball particularly well (29th in rushing offense).  Yes I know they hit Barkley out of the backfield, but including that and Beckham, they are still only 13th in passing offense.  For Philadelphia, it is now or never to go on a run to make the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
I originally took San Francisco here, but they are a west coast team travelling east for the early game, and I just couldn't do it.  Tampa in an ugly win.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at Los Angeles Chargers
Only because the spread is so high.  Arizona is 4th in passing defense and adequate (17th overall) i n total defense, so this might keep things close enough.

Miami Dolphins +9 at Indianapolis Colts
Nothing about the two teams' years says that Miami should win this game, and Indianapolis does score a ton of points (5th in the NFL), but with Drake and Gore running the football, the score stays close enough for Miami to cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Denver Broncos
I have to take Antonio Brown at his word that he is playing this week despite having/not having the sickle-cell trait.  Pittsburgh's defense is much, much better than at the beginning of the season, and their offense is 4th in points and 5th in total defense.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Green Bay Packers
Both of the teams need a win to boost any chance at the playoffs.  Minnesota's defense wins this for the Vikings.

Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans
Houston lost in week 1 to Tennessee, but this is not that same team as DeShaun Watson has some more experience under his belt post-injury.  Texans defense is very stout (5th in points allowed, 6th in rush defense, 7th in total defense and 8th in pass defense) whereas the Titans' offense is not (30th in total offense and passing offense and 28th in points scored).

Big Bet
Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans
Houston lost in week 1 to Tennessee, but this is not that same team as DeShaun Watson has some more experience under his belt post-injury.  Texans defense is very stout (5th in points allowed, 6th in rush defense, 7th in total defense and 8th in pass defense) whereas the Titans' offense is not (30th in total offense and passing offense and 28th in points scored).
I hate picking my big bet on Monday night, but Houston is at home, not giving up too many points, and the night will be emotional with the recent death of their founder/owner Bob McNair.


Last Week's Record:  3-8-2
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  80-72-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($745)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($160)

Picks of the Week

Three consecutive winning weeks!!!  I know at some point that streak will end, I just hope that it isn't today.  A silly push on Thursday, but at least it was't a loss!!!

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Green Bay Packers
After last week's Carolina debacle, I am going back to following the rules, don't bet on the visiting team on a short week.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
I really have no idea who to pick in this game.  Atlanta's offense and Dallas's defense are both really good, but the other sides of the ball stink.  Usually in a situation like this I take the points, but this time I am taking the home team as Dallas is coming off an emotion intra-divisional victory.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
I think this line is too high, especially given that Lamar Jackson might make his first NFL start.  That being said, with no A.J. Green, and with a great Ravens defense, it is hard for me to see the Bengals doing much of anything offensively.  It's the old adage - defense and running game - that I am betting on here.

Carolina Panthers -4 at Detroit Lions
You should know by now that I hate taking road favorites, but the Lions are not good and Carolina is 7-1 against the spread coming off a loss.  I will take a bounce back performance.

Tennessee Titans +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
This Titans team will make life tough for somebody in the playoffs.  They start by making a run toward the top of the AFC South with a win over the Colts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New York Giants
Both teams stink, so I will take the points.  Plus, Fitzmagic is coming off a good high from the Harvard victory over Yale yesterday at Fenway Park.  This likely means Cameron Brate scores a touchdown as well!

Houston Texans -3 at Washington Racists
Both teams are 6-3 and lead their respective divisions, but it seems like the Texans have more talent while Washington seems to be doing this courtesy of a horrible division.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
So the story comes out today that the Jaguars are open to trading Jalen Ramsey in the offseason.  On the morning of a game.  Ridiculous.

Arizona Cardinals -5 v. Oakland Raiders
Oakland is in utter disarray!

Denver Broncos +7 at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers should win this game, but it is an intra-divisional game, and I think Denver runs the ball enough to keep the game close.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
This is not last year's Philly team.  Middle of the road in total offense and defense.  Meanwhile, New Orleans is 5th in total yards, while first in points and first in rushing defense.

Chicago Bears -2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This should be a close game and the spread reflects that.  The Bears defense leads the way (2nd in rushing defense, 3rd in 3rd down percentage and 4th in total defense and points allowed), but the offense is 5th in points scored as well .  They could use a bit more of a running game against Minnesota which is 3rd in rush defense and 5th in total defense.  However, I honestly trust Mitchell Trubisky more in a big spot than I do Kirk Cousins right now.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Two high-flying offenses, but the Rams defense is 13th overall (10th against the run and 12th in points allowed), whereas the Chiefs defense is 29th overall (29th against the pass, 22nd against thr run and 18th in points allowed).  Given the emotional lift of all of the first responders to the California wildfires being given free tickets, I will take the Rams defense.

Big Bet
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
So the story comes out today that the Jaguars are open to trading Jalen Ramsey in the offseason.  On the morning of a game.  Ridiculous.
Ordinarily I would like to pick a home team and/or a team receiving points, but this Jalen Ramsey news is a bombshell.  What on earth is going on in that locker room.

Last Week's Record:  7-6-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  77-64-7
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $190

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $585

Picks of the Week

Two great wee\ks in a row (17-10), and although Thursday was an awful start to the week, I am confident that I can keep this winning streak going.  I have had a little more time to think about the picks today, so I sure hope that I do not overthink things, buChot what are the odds of that?

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
I hate taking the road teams on the short week, but that extra half-point sold me at a time when both teams were playing extremely well.

Chicago Bears -7 v. Detroit Lions
This is not a homer pick, I swear.  The Lions offense looked anemic even before trading Golden Tate, and they looked downright pitiful last week.  The Bears have given up 17 or less in 4 of 5 home games, and the weather is going to be cold today, which isn't good for a dome team.

New Orleans Saints -6 at Cincinnati Bengals
Sometimes you just look at a line and say, this is obvious.  Those times, you have to go the other way.  New Orleans is the obvious pick here.  But, even given that they are the obvious pick and given that road favorites tend to under-perform, the Bengals will be without their best player, A.J. Green, meaning the obvious pick, is THE pick here.

Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
The Falcons offense is really clicking, especially with the emergence of Calvin Ridley as a deadly threat.  Cleveland, although playing better than the past 2 years, is still a train wreck.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is scoring in excess of 35 the past 5 games, but even Blake Bortles has feasted on the Colts defense in the past 2 years. With Fournette returning, the Colts will not win by much, if at all.

Kansas City Chiefs -16 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
This line is absolutely ridiculous, but Arizona is Arizona and they are travelling west, so why not.

Buffalo Bills +7 at New York Jets
Two new quarterbacks in Matt Barkley, yes, that Matt Barkley, and Josh McCown, yest that Josh McCown. The Bills defense should keep this game close and interesting, as they are 3rd in total defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Washington Racists
Fitzmagic!!!

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 v. New England Patriots
Mike Vrabel keeps the game with his mentor close.

Los Angeles Chargers -10 at Oakland Raiders
Road favorite and double digit division favorites never cover, much less if they are both in one game.  But, the Raiders are a train wreck the likes that nobody except for Cleveland Browns fans have ever seen.

Miami Dolphins +10 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Just too many points, given that the Packers are mediocre in points per game and average to below average in total defense, rushing defense and scoring defense.

Seattle Seahawks +9 at Los Angeles Rams
The one thing that the Seahawks are is resilient, and although they may not win this game, they will likely play this game similar to the game against the Chargers last week, within 9.

Dallas Cowboys +7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
This line just seems way too big for a division game in which the teams are only separated in the standings by 1 game.

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. New York Giants
Two teams with a combined record of 3-14 means a Monday Night Football game I will likely miss.

Big Bet
New Orleans Saints -6 at Cincinnati Bengals
Sometimes you just look at a line and say, this is obvious.  Those times, you have to go the other way.  New Orleans is the obvious pick here.  But, even given that they are the obvious pick and given that road favorites tend to under-perform, the Bengals will be without their best player, A.J. Green, meaning the obvious pick, is THE pick here.
No A.J. Green, and the Saints do it for Dez.

Last Week's Record:  8-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  70-58-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $400
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $395

Picks of the Week

Travelling once again this morning, so no real time to type out all of my thoughts, but last week was my best week of the year and aI hope to continue that success this week.  On to the picks ...

San Francisco 49ers + 1 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders

Buffalo Bills + 10 v. Chicago Bears

Baltimore Ravens -1 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Carolina Panthers -6 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kansas City Chiefs -8 at Cleveland Browns

Miami Dolphins -3 v. New York Jets

Detroit Lions + 4 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Washington Racists -2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Houston Texans + 1 at Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Chargers +1 at Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles Rams -1 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Green Bay Packers +5 1/2 at New England Patriots

Tennessee Titans +4 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Big Bet
Kansas City Chiefs -8 at Cleveland Browns
Too much recent turmoil in Cleveland.

Last Week's Record:  9-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  62-53-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $500
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($5)