My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else, a reminder. Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
I hate taking the road teams on the short week, but that extra half-point sold me at a time when both teams were playing extremely well.
Chicago Bears -7 v. Detroit Lions
This is not a homer pick, I swear. The Lions offense looked anemic even before trading Golden Tate, and they looked downright pitiful last week. The Bears have given up 17 or less in 4 of 5 home games, and the weather is going to be cold today, which isn't good for a dome team.
New Orleans Saints -6 at Cincinnati Bengals
Sometimes you just look at a line and say, this is obvious. Those times, you have to go the other way. New Orleans is the obvious pick here. But, even given that they are the obvious pick and given that road favorites tend to under-perform, the Bengals will be without their best player, A.J. Green, meaning the obvious pick, is THE pick here.
Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
The Falcons offense is really clicking, especially with the emergence of Calvin Ridley as a deadly threat. Cleveland, although playing better than the past 2 years, is still a train wreck.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is scoring in excess of 35 the past 5 games, but even Blake Bortles has feasted on the Colts defense in the past 2 years. With Fournette returning, the Colts will not win by much, if at all.
Kansas City Chiefs -16 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
This line is absolutely ridiculous, but Arizona is Arizona and they are travelling west, so why not.
Buffalo Bills +7 at New York Jets
Two new quarterbacks in Matt Barkley, yes, that Matt Barkley, and Josh McCown, yest that Josh McCown. The Bills defense should keep this game close and interesting, as they are 3rd in total defense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Washington Racists
Fitzmagic!!!
Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 v. New England Patriots
Mike Vrabel keeps the game with his mentor close.
Los Angeles Chargers -10 at Oakland Raiders
Road favorite and double digit division favorites never cover, much less if they are both in one game. But, the Raiders are a train wreck the likes that nobody except for Cleveland Browns fans have ever seen.
Miami Dolphins +10 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Just too many points, given that the Packers are mediocre in points per game and average to below average in total defense, rushing defense and scoring defense.
Seattle Seahawks +9 at Los Angeles Rams
The one thing that the Seahawks are is resilient, and although they may not win this game, they will likely play this game similar to the game against the Chargers last week, within 9.
Dallas Cowboys +7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
This line just seems way too big for a division game in which the teams are only separated in the standings by 1 game.
San Francisco 49ers -3 v. New York Giants
Two teams with a combined record of 3-14 means a Monday Night Football game I will likely miss.
Big Bet
New Orleans Saints -6 at Cincinnati Bengals
Sometimes you just look at a line and say, this is obvious. Those times, you have to go the other way. New Orleans is the obvious pick here. But, even given that they are the obvious pick and given that road favorites tend to under-perform, the Bengals will be without their best player, A.J. Green, meaning the obvious pick, is THE pick here.
No A.J. Green, and the Saints do it for Dez.
Last Week's Record: 8-5
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 70-58-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 4-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $400
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $395
