Playoff Picks

Boy was I way off the reservation last week. 11-0 is way gone, both straight-up and against the spread. I need a big comeback week to try to get back to respectability, after a darn good season of picks.

New Orleans Saints -3 at San Francisco
New Orleans Saints

The Saints have consistently been the second best team in the league this year (excepting the Packers). They have a ton of weapons. I know that the 49ers may have the defense to stop almost anybody, but their most experienced playoff performer is David Akers (now watch him hit the winning field goal). Drew Brees is white hot, and I look forward to the Saints-Packers rematch next week.

Denver Broncos +13 1/2 at New England Patriots
New England Patriots

I fully expect the Patriots to move on to next week's AFC Championship game, however, their defense is so bad, that I do not think they will outscore the Broncos by two touchdowns. "But Pepster, they already did". I know, but that was with the aid of three turnovers. If they do not get the turnovers this week, it will be a much closer game. I expect it to be close, but the much maligned defense of the Patriots will make two big plays, one by Vince Wilfork in stuffing a third or fourth and short, and one in the secondary by Patrick Chung. Also going against Denver, the playoff team playing a Saturday game after winning on the previous Sunday is 4-14 since 1990.

Houston Texans + 7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens

Once again, I pick the AFC favorite to win, with the underdog to cover. With both teams playing great defense and running the ball exceptionally well, I fully expect this game to have 2/3 of the possessions of the average game - maybe 8 or 9 a piece. This severely limits the amount of points one team can score, making it harder to cover a touchdown spread.

New York Giants + 7 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has been the best team all year, and the week of rest helps them get their offensive line healthy (which they will need against the Giants) and an extra week of rest for Greg Jennings. the Giants front 7 will keep the game close, and the Giants offense will score enough against the Packers to make this a good game. I once again have to mention the player who I felt has played the best this season, regardless of position and regardless of statistics; Jason Pierre-Paul.


Playoff Record To Date

Straight Up: 1-3
Against the Spread: 1-3

Playoffs Picks

My attempt to go 11-0. I will pick against the spread and straight up.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 at Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals

Injuries finally catch up to Houston, as the Bengals' rookie QB is better than the Texans'.

Detroit Lions +10 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints

Detroit has the firepower to hang with New Orleans, so they should cover, but New Orleans is way too potent at home to lose this shootout.

Atlanta Falcons +3 at New York Giants
Atlanta Falcons

This should be a very close game. The Falcons massive draft day trade to get Julio Jones pays off as they play the horrific Giants secondary. I do want to mention that I think Jason Pierre-Paul has played the best football of anyone I have watched this year - and I watched a lot of football.

Denver Broncos +8 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't think Denver can win this game, but their defense, coupled with the injuries to Mendenhall, Pouncey and Roethlisberger, should keep this game close. I am intetested to see how Brady Quinn might do, if he plays as is being reported.

Picks of the Week

Last week was my first big losing week of the season, even at 8-8 (damn Big Bet). A quick refresher: Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Seattle Seahawks
So it turns out that Philly is much worse than everyone thought and the Seahawks are much better. And the Eagles have the DeSean Jackson drama, Maclin and Vick out, McCoy - who knows? But, that is better than Sidney Rice on IR and the starting quarterback with a torn pectoral muscle.

Chicago Bears -7 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Caleb Hanie at least showed that he can move the ball - Tyler Palko didn't. However, Orton should play, and then it is a whole different ball of wax. Nevertheless, the Bears D is gelling, with Peppers garnering NFC Defensive Player of the Month honors.

New England Patriots -20 v. Indianapolis Colts
This spread is so absurd, that I have to take New England, just to say I bet on a 20 point NFL favorite. The Pats offense is cruising; just when people learn they have to guard the two tight end offense, the Pats have two receivers hang 100 plus. And, we might have found an offense that the Pats D can stop.

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Chris Johnson has awaken. The Bills are still playing better than anyone believed, but it is going to be hard for any of their receivers to get open because of Jason McCourty, the guy I believe is playing the best of any corner in the NFL.

Houston Texans +3 v. Atlanta Falcons
This is a weird game to pick, because we just have no idea what we are going to get out of T.J. Yates. But, we do know what we will get from the Texans defense and their running game, so I'll take the points and hope for a close game.

Denver Broncos + 1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
Is it possible to have a 0-0 game with 0 total yards from scrimmage?

Washington Redskins +3 v. New York Jets
I don't know why, I just feel that the Redskins have been playing well, the Jets haven't, and I want the points. Plus, the Redskins get a chance to see what they really have in Helu.

Carolina Panthers +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers running game seems to be getting back on track, and that will really open things up for Cam Newton.

Oakland Raiders +3 at Miami Dolphins
Both teams are playing much better than expected, but the Raiders running game is much stronger, and on that basis, I want the Raiders.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati by 7 at Cincinnati, should be by more in Pittsburgh.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
I am not sure anyone should really be a 6 1/2 point favorite in this division, but I like the Ravens much more than the Browns. I hope the divisional rivalry thing doesn't make Cleveland play better than they really are.

Green Bay Packers -7 at New York Giants
Only Jason Pierre-Paul is really playing an effective defensive line for the Giants, and without a major pass rush, Rodgers can pick the defense apart. Plus, Brandon Jacobs is a shell of his former self, and cannot be an effective starting running back. The Giants need Bradshaw back.

St. Louis Rams +13 at San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis has not been winning a lot of games, but they have the offensive firepower to stay close. I'll take almost two touchdowns.

New Orleans Saints -9 v. Detroit Lions
With Suh out, the Lions interior rush falls to rookie Nick Fairley. New Orleans showed that they could run-and-gun with Green Bay, now they are fresh and looking to put their stamp on the second best team in the NFC sweepstakes.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. San Diego Chargers
The Jaguar defense played amazingly in their previous Monday Night Football appearance, and I look for an inspired performance this week after the del Rio firing and news that the purchasing owner will keep the team in Jacksonville. Gabbert really needs to perform much better, if he is given the chance to play.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys -4 at Arizona Cardinals
Dallas is playing much better since DeMarco Murray has been inserted into the starting role, and DeMarcus Ware is having a Defensive MVP type season. I heard a line today that sums up Arizona. "We finally found a way to defend Larry Fitzgerald - John Skelton".

Previous Week's Record: 8-8
Year to Date: 74-68-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Beat Year to Date: 9-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $(245)
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $1105

My Argument Against Alabama

Okay, so it appears to be a foregone conclusion that LSU and Alabama will meet in the BCS Championship Game in January to determine college football's National Champion. I think it is the wrong game, and I think LSU is being penalized for being maybe the 2nd best team I have seen in college football. I am going on record now as being in favor of an LSU - Oklahoma State matchup (assuming OSU handles its business against OU next week), and I give you the following for your consideration:

1. I have never agreed with premise that a team should be eligible for the championship game if it does not win its conference. Alabama is not even going to play in the SEC Championship game next weekend. This is ridiculous! LSU has gone through the West Division of the SEC undefeated and is rewarded by having to play an extra game against a much improved Georgia team in Atlanta. I don't think it is going to matter if LSU loses since they have beaten three teams in the top 3 this year and seven ranked teams overall. However, the risk of a loss at the end of a season is significant considering that Alabama is going to be sitting at home resting and watching.

2. Why will Alabama be sitting at home resting next weekend? Because they lost to LSU earlier this month...AT HOME! So, just to be clear, LSU will now be required to beat Alabama twice - once in Tuscaloosa and once on a neutral field. LSU is really getting the short end of the stick here. Hell, I might argue that even if LSU were to lose to Alabama in a championship game, I would STILL give them the trophy for beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa!

3. I don't like the BCS, but it is all we have at the moment. The intent of the BCS is to put the number 1 and 2 teams together every year. This year it is difficult, but not impossible. The computers overwhelmingly have OSU as the second best team in the country. I recognize that the computers don't watch games, but it is an integral part of the formula and again, it is all we have. Also, OSU's only loss was in two overtimes, on the road, on a day when the athletic department lost two basketball coaches in a plane crash. I imagine that the players weren't very close to those involved in the crash, but it must still be traumatic. I don't know, I am thinking about giving them a pass for that.

4. I will not entertain arguments for Virginia Tech (pitiful schedule that they should have murdered), Stanford (embarrassed at home), Houston (please), or Boise State (lost at home to TCU). Nice seasons, but not part of this conversation.

I am not going to say that OSU is a better football team this year than Alabama. I don't know the answer to that and there is no playoff to determine who is better. What I do know is this - LSU is better than Alabama. It was proven at the University of Alabama on national television. It is unfair to LSU to make them prove it again on a neutral field.

My BCS Championship Game is LSU vs. OSU. And there shouldn't be an argument.

Thanksgiving Picks of the Week

Happy Thanksgiving, and welcome to the "picks of the week". A quick refresher: Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +6 v. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay's defense has not looked that great, and Detroit's offense has a lot of firepower. Stafford is a different quarterback at home. I am not saying that the Lions beat the Packers, but they definitely score enough to keep it within a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have looked really good the past 3 or 4 weeks, and they have not given up a touchdown in what seems like forever. That stops today. Cowboys smell the opening to win the division, and I expect them to take a big bite toward that title today.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Very short week and travel from west coast to east coast will be detrimental to the 49ers. Yeah, I know I know they have won every east coast game this year, but the Ravens are not the Redskins. Plus, Torrey Smith has brought an additional dimension to the Ravens offense.

Chicago Bears +4 at Oakland Raiders
I have bet the Raiders more times than most this year, but I think this Bears team is really gelling on defense. If Hanie can get a good full week of practice in before the game, and if he continues to show the strengths he brought to the second half of the NFC Championship game, then the Bears should be all right. Plus, they have the non-Aaron Rodgers MVP of the league in Matt Forte.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have been a big disappointment for a lot of people this year. Although they still have some good, young talent, the Titans are a really tough team. Johnson might be rounding into form, and whether Hasselback can play or not, Jake Locker looks like he can play.

St. Louis Rams No Line v. Arizona Cardinals
I think that you are starting at QB for Arizona this week.

New York Jets -9 v. Buffalo Bills
The loss of Fred Jackson cannot be overestimated. The fact that the Bills were on a downward spiral with Jackson doesn't help either. The only reason this isn't a 15 or 17 point spread is because the Bills have the better quarterback.

Houston Texans -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
I have no idea what we are going to get in Matt Leinart, and nobody else does either. Not even the Texans. Especially not the Texans. However, the Jaguars know exactly what they are getting in Blaine Gabbert.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Indianapolis Colts
Boy are the Colts bad without Peyton.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Andy Dalton is making a run at NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Browns are in complete disarray.

Atlanta Falcons -9 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota's offense is reeling, and the Falcons seem to be out of the funk they were in at the beginning of the season.

Washington Redskins + 3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
I am still not picking Seattle.

San Diego Chargers -6 v. Denver Broncos
The Chargers have not been very good and they turn the ball over, but that's OK because this Broncos offense cannot move the ball effectively. If Rivers doesn't throw interceptions, the Chargers are due for a win.

New England Patriots -4 at Philadelphia Eagles
So the league has figured out that the way to stop Welker is to play him man-to-man, but the Pats have Gronkowski and Hernandez. The Eagles don't even know if they will have Vick, although I suspect they will. I expect a shootout, with the Pats winning by a touchdown.

New Orleans Saints -7 v. New York Giants
The Saints offense was hitting on all cylinders just prior to the bye week. I think the week off will do nothing but refresh them. The Giants have been Jekyll and Hyde this year, but I think the Saints score enough anyway.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh Steelers -10 1/2 at Kansas City
I hate to make a double digit spread my "Big Bet of the Week", but then again, have you seen Kansas City play? Mike Wallace has emerged as one of the best receivers in the league, Mendenhall is a solid running back, and they still have that Steeler defense (although not as Steel as in the past).

Previous Week's Record: 6-6-2
Year to Date: 66-60-5
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 9-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $90
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $1350

Picks of the Week

It is time for the "picks of the week". A quick refresher: Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

Denver Broncos +6 v. New York Jets
The Jets should win this game, but with the Broncos new rushing attack, possessions will be fewer. Plus, this line has grown 1 1/2 points since open, meaning, I will go against the majority of Americans almost every time. Plus, the Jets have only had 1 practice to get ready for the college offense of the Broncos, having played late Sunday night.

Dallas Cowboys -7 at Washington Redskins
Boy are the Redskins bad. The Cowboys may have really found a player in this DeMarco Murray.

Miami Dolphons -2 v. Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins have never quit in any game this year, and played some good teams close. Buffalo is no longer a good team.

Green Bay Packers -14 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Unlike the Dolphins, Tampa Bay has a tendency to quit in games. That will be easy to do once Rodgers gets up on them.

Detroit Lions -7 v. Carolina Panthers
There is no way that Detroit lays two eggs in a row, so after that beatdown at the hands of the Bears, I look for Detroit to give a similar beatdown to Carolina. For the Panthers, Newton has looked spectacular at time, but lately, he is getting absolutely no help from the running game. They need Williams and/or Stewart to step up to help Newton.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 at Cleveland Browns
There is no reason whatsoever that I want to watch this game, nor do I really care who wins. I'll take the points, nay, point.

Cincinnati Bengals +7 at Baltimore Ravens
I still think that the Ravens are going to win, but Cincinnati showed last week against Pittsburgh that they can hang with the big boys. The Ravens showed that they can lose to anyone.

Chicago Bears -3 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers
Gates is playing like he is old, Philip Rivers is playing like he has no offensive help, and the Bears are cruising right now, and they are at home.

Arizona Cardinals +9 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
Arizona beat Philadelphia last week, and they way they played, they could keep it close. I like the 49ers to win, perhaps by a touchdown, but with a run-first offense and a strong defense, the clock will keep running down and limit possession, hopefully keeping the score close, even if San Fran dominates.

St. Louis Rams -2 v. Seattle Seahawks
I don't care who they beat last week, I cannot bet on Seattle.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
Green Bay is simply the best team in football, and we need to set up the Packers being undefeated going into the Thanksgiving game at Detroit.

Tennessee Titans +6 at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons looked pretty good against the Saints, but this team could meltdown knowing that 1 loss could keep them out of the playoffs, especially when that one loss can be laid strictly at the feet of one really stupid decision.

New York Giants -4 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are nowhere near as good as everyone thought they were going to be. In fact, we can offically call them BAD.

New England Patriots -14 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
We have had some really bad Monday night games this year, including a couple of blowouts. Let's add another to the list.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Oakland Raiders -1 at Minnesota Vikings
Carson Palmer is starting to hit a bit of a groove and Michael Bush is a more than capable backup to Darren McFadden. Christian Ponder has had his moments, but this is not a good Vikings team. Without Jared Allen and Adrian Peterson, this team would be nothing this year. And with Janikowsi and Lechler, this team can play field position football with absolutely anybody.

Previous Week's Record: 8-6
Year to Date: 60-54-3
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 8-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $290
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $1260

NFL Picks

It is time for the "picks of the week". A quick refresher: Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

New York Jets +2 at Buffalo Bills
I really don't know what to think of this game, and in that situation, I always take the points. Plus, the Jets should be a bit healthier after the bye week.

Dallas Cowboys -11 v. Seattle Seahawks
Just to keep betting against Seattle.

Cleveland Browns +10 1/2 at Houston Texans
This has nothing to do with Peyton Hillis, but more to do with the fact that the spread is double digits. I really don't think Cleveland can win, but could lose by 10.

Atlanta Falcons -7 at Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is not good. Falcons should run the ball on them all game.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 v. Miami Dolpins
If this Chiefs defense plays anything like Monday night, Miami does not have a chance. They are playing hard, the Dolphins just aren't good.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
LaGarrette Blount is back, and the Saints will make just one too many turnovers to cover this spread.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
Cincinnati is play surprisingly well, and since every other defense has bottled up Chris Johnson this year, the Bengals should be able to do so as well.

Oakland Raiders -8 v. Denver Broncos
Darren McFadden is much, much better than anything the Broncos have. Plus, Janikowski is back.

St. Louis Rams + 1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
John Skelton.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
Green Bay is simply the best team in football, and we need to set up the Packers being undefeated going into the Thanksgiving game at Detroit.

New York Giants +9 at New England Patriots
It appears that teams have figured out that playing Welker man-to-man is the way to slow down the Patriots offense. After watching the Giants against the Dolphins, that may not be enough for them to win, but it may be enough for them to cover.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
With the exception of the first game of the season, this game is always close. Ravens have not been playing as consistent since, and the Steelers are playing better since, so this game should be close this time around.

Chicago Bears +8 at Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles give up around 5 yards a carry, and Forte gains about 5 yards a carry. The Eagles looked great last week, but the Bears are rested after a bye. I'll take the 8 points gladly. If the Bears weren't my favorite team, I might have made this my Big Bet.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 at Washington Redskins
Jim Harbaugh has the 49ers playing tough, and good, football. The Washington Redskins, well, not so tough or good.

Previous Week's Record: 6-7
Year to Date: 52-48-3
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 7-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: ($20)
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $970