Picks of the Week

Another winning week to cut into the big deficit that hit me a few weeks ago.  Super short week with two Christmas Day games, so I have no idea what is going to happen this week.  Let's see how it goes.  

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

This seems like a really close game, especially given the short week and George Pickens coming back, but I think I have learned not to bet against Kansas City.

Baltimore Ravens -6 at Houston Texans

Houston deflated when Tank Dell was injured.  Wednesday is too short of a time frame for the team to get themselves out of that funk.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Chicago keeps it close at home on a short week; Caleb throws for over 300 yards to put himself in line to break the season-season record for the Bears.

New England Patriots +4 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Short week, west coast team flying east and playing in the 1:00 slot - ON A SHORT WEEK.  New England played Buffalo close last week as well, so they might be on a roll.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

If there is a defense that Bo Nix needs to rebound against, it is Cincinnati's, but the Burrow-Chase combination has been ridiculous this year, and I expect that to continue, especially on a short week.

Los Angeles Rams -6 v. Arizona Cardinals

It is time for Arizona to start examining the Kyler Murray era.

Dallas Cowboys +9 at Philadelphia Eagles

Yes Dallas is 7-8 and Philadelphia is 12-3, but Dallas has been playing much, MUCH better lately, winning 4 of its last 5.  And, with this being a divisional game, I did not expect the spread to be THIS high.  Philadelphia should still win, but 9 points is too much.  I'll take them.

New York Jets +10 at Buffalo Bills

Much like the above Dallas-Philadelphia game, this spread is way too high, especially given Buffalo's recent streak:  W+3, W+6, Loss.  I'll take the points, even though I expect a Buffalo win.

Las Vegas Raiders -1 at New Orleans Saints

Brock Bowers might be the only thing to watch in this game; unless you are just rooting for Cameron Jordan in his 58th season for the Saints.  New Orleans just got drubbed on Monday night, so it is a short week for them.

Indianapolis Colts -8 at New York Giants

The Giants gave up on this season a long time ago.

Carolina Panthers +8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I really wanted to pick Tampa Bay here, given that they are at home, but they beat Carolina a few weeks ago by only 3, and the Panthers have been in close battles lately:  W+6; L-16; L-6, L-3, L-3 (Kansas City), L-3, W+1, so all signs point to this being a close game.

Tennessee Titans -1 at. Jacksonville Jaguars

Mac Jones has actually been moving this team a bit in relief of Trevor Lawrence, but Mason Rudolph is a more steadying hand for the Titans than Will Levis was.  Plus, Tennessee has the number 1 defense in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -3 at Cleveland Browns

Dorian Thompson-Robinson and his 30.1 quarterback rating.

So, this spread has dropped to -3 from -6 1/2, in large part because Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa has been ruled out.  So, we now have an immortal qb matchup - Tyler Huntley versus Dorian Thompson-Robinson.  And, Thompson-Robinson still has a 30.1 quarterback rating.

Minnesota Vikings -1 v. Green Bay Packers

In what is essentially a pick 'em, I will take the home team because I have no idea who is going to win this game.

Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Last week's game was a big pick-me-up for this Commanders offense, which they continue this week against the 21st ranked passing defense and the 19th ranked scoring defense.  Plus, let's give some love to the Commanders and their 9th ranked total defense.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

This game almost seems unfair, especially since we never know who will be playing for San Francisco from one week to the next.  Either way, Detroit rolls.

Big Bets:

Carolina Panthers +8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I really wanted to pick Tampa Bay here, given that they are at home, but they beat Carolina a few weeks ago by only 3, and the Panthers have been in close battles lately:  W+6; L-16; L-6, L-3, L-3 (Kansas City), L-3, W+1, so all signs point to this being a close game.

Carolina was good to me for the big bet last week, so I will roll with them again for a second week in a row.

I had so many to choose from, Miami (road favorite), Las Vegas (same thing), Dallas, but rolling with the Panthers.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  118-112-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-7

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $390

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($325)

Picks of the Week

 

Winning record but lost money, thanks to the fact I forgot George Pickens wasn't playing.  Won't make that mistake today.  Thursday pick looked great for the first half, then the Chargers came to life.  Oh well.  Two Saturday games - let's get after it.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

Like I typed earlier, first half looked great.

Houston Texans +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, the away team on a short week.  Houston's defense is on a heater - moving up to 6th in total defense and 9th in scoring defense, and Kansas City, even though they win, don't blow anyone out.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

The aforementioned George Pickens loss makes Pittsburgh's offense really stagnant.

Detroit Lions -6 1/2 at Chicago Bears

The Bears snuck up on Detroit on Thanksgiving.  They will not do that this week.

Cincinnati Bengals -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Dorian Thompon-Robinson?  And Cincinnati has the 5th highest scoring offense in the NFL, going against the 26th ranked scoring defense.

 

Atlanta Falcons -9 v. New York Giants

I ordinarily hate picking a team starting a QB for his first ever NFL start, but Penix might just be what Atlanta needs after Kirk Cousins squandered a 6-3 start.  Plus, it's the Drew Lock-led New York GIants, and his 54.6 rating.

Indianapolis Colts -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Will Levis is officially looking over his shoulder; and a nervous Will Levis is a bad Will Levis.

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Arizona Cardinals

Carolina has not been bad since November, defeating the Saints and Giants, losing to the Chiefs by 3, to the Buccaneers by 3, to the Eagles by 6, but then being hammered by the Cowboys last week.  They have enough of a team to keep this close.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Road favorites in an intradivisional matchup are difficult picks, but not when that team is among the best in the NFL right now.  Philadelphia are 4th in total offense (1st in rushing) and 1st in total defense 1st in passing and scoring).

Los Angeles Rams -3 at New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers' destruction of a New York institution is almost complete.

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Seattle Seahawks

I might as well just keep picking road favorites!  How can that hurt?

New England Patriots +14 at Buffalo Bills

Only because the spread is two touchdowns.  Likely would have taken Buffalo if it was 10, maybe even 11.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Long live the Mac Jones Era!!!

San Francisco 49ers -1 at Miami Dolphins

Looks like the Dolphins will be without Jaylen Waddle AND Tyreek Hill.  I reserve the right to change this before game time if Hill plays.

Dallas Cowboys +4 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is playing like not only will they deserve to be in the playoffs, but they could make some noise.  But, Dallas has been playing a lot better recently, and if not for a weird blocked punt, muff for a Cincinnati first down, could be on a four-game winning streak.

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Look, do I think that New Orleans will win? No.  Do I think New Orleans will keep this close?  Also no. But 14 1/2 is a lot of points to give up in an NFL game.

Big Bet:

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Arizona Cardinals

Carolina has not been bad since November, defeating the Saints and Giants, losing to the Chiefs by 3, to the Buccaneers by 3, to the Eagles by 6, but then being hammered by the Cowboys last week.  They have enough of a team to keep this close.

Because it seems so crazy, I will take Carolina.  For most of my other choices they were either giving points, or on the road (or both?!), so I will take the points in a home game and hope for the best.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  109-106-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-7

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($35)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($715)

Picks of the Week

Slightly in the black (now a 3-week winning streak), and that is how we have to chip away at the deficit.  All 16 teams in action this week, so some room to really move up (or down!).

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams +3 at San Francisco

Glad I picked it, but boy was this game brutal.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

This game is really difficult to pick because this Cowboy team could either come out firing because of the tragic way this team lost on Monday night (blocked punt fumble recovered by Cincinnati for a first down), or just pack the season away.  I would ordinarily think the latter given no real chance at the playoffs for them, except Carolina is worst against the run in the entire NFL and Rico Dowdle has show some spark running.

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

I haven't had a strong feeling about a back-door cover in a long time, but the facts that this Chiefs defense is really good, but that somehow they generally play really close games.  Perhaps a late Jameis Winston TD to lose 24-20.

Miami Dolphins +3 at Houston Texans

Nico Collins being back is a game-changer, but the team - other than the Dallas game - has not been as dominating as it should be.  I think last week we finally got to see the true Tyreek Hill after a long drought (10-115-1).

Washington Commanders -7 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

What is a Jake Haener?

 

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I should pick Tennessee here because they have the #1 ranked defense against the pass (and second overall) and because Cincinnati played Monday night - but that just isn't how I see it.  Burrow throws for close to 300 and Cincinnati cruises.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 v. New York Jets

We are just weeks away from Aaron Rodgers joining the leadership of the Department of Health and Human Services, and we expect him to care about the Jaguars?  Also, Mac Jones has historically played really well against the Jets.

New York Giants +16 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

It is almost absurd that an NFL team is giving 16 1/2 points while at home, and I still seriously considered taking the Ravens.

Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I honestly think Pittsburgh could win this outright, so why wouldn't I take the Eagles?

Denver Broncos -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson's QB Rating is 64.3, primarily because his completion percentage is 47.44%.

Buffalo Bills +2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

The two best teams in the league right now, so I will take the points.  That is all I am basing this pick on.  Getting points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This is essentially a playoff game, as both teams are in playoff contention, and like the Bills pick above, I will take the points.  Plus, we do not know what we might get out of an injured Justin Herbert today.

Arizona Cardinals -6 v. New England Patriots

Arizona is just one of those teams that play great when you don't expect them to, and they play bad when you expect them to play well.  I don't know, so I'll just expect them to win here, and I hope they cover.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/5 v. Green Bay Packers

Seattle recently defeated Aaron Rodgers, so now I expect them to take out his former team.  Honestly, I think this Seattle team is way better than most people think, and they are getting points at home.  I'll take it.

Minnesota Vikings -7 v. Chicago Bears

Yes, the Bears have played the NFC Central extremely close, having recently covered against the Vikings at home.  This isn't the same as the Bears have fired Matt Eberflus and the team looked absent last week.  Vikings at home.

Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Desmond Ridder will feature prominently, and not for the Falcons.

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I honestly think Pittsburgh could win this outright, so why wouldn't I take the Eagles?

I would like this better if Pittsburgh at home, even though the spread then woul dbe like 3 or 2 1/2, but I still like this pick.  Two of the best total defenses in the NFL (Philly 1; Pittsburgh 5), but unless the Eagles get more balance on offense (1st in rushing, 31st in passing), then Pittsburgh's defense can just key on Barkley.  No George Pickens hurts, but likely not that much as Wilson likes to spread things around anyway.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-4-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  100-99-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-6

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 95

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($685)

Picks of the Week

 

Another week in the black!!!  Not enough to erase the deficit from a couple of weeks ago, but one winning week away from making it a streak.  Let's start that streak this weekend!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions -3 v. Green Bay Packers

Home team on a short week; and the Lions really wanting to prove something given that they eeked out a Thanksgiving Day win against Chicago.

Atlanta Falcons +6 at Minnesota Vikings

Atlanta has lost w in a row, and I do not expect them to end that streak, but Minnesota has played in a lot of one-possession games recently, and the one that wasn't, they only scored 23 against the Titans.  I expect this to be close, with Kirk Cousins and the 5th ranked passing offense keeping Atlanta in the game against the 28th ranked passing defense.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

I feel like the Jaguars offense played okay under Mac Jones after Trevor Lawrence went out last week, but not sure this Titans defense is where a backup quarterback can thrive.

New Orleans Saints -5 at New York Giants

At 4-8 the Saints are only two games off the NFC South lead; at 2-10 the Giants are staring at Shadeur Sanders or Cam Ward.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Mike Evans is a go, and besides, the Buccaneers are 6th in passing even having lost Godwin for the year and Evans for a bunch of games.  Plus, the Raiders are playing in the 1:00 window after travelling from the Pacific Time Zone.  The winner of this game should be called the Pittsburgh Pirates for the next year.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Cleveland defeated the Steelers in Cleveland just two weeks ago; and they took the Broncos to the brink on Monday night.  But that is the problem - it was Monday, meaning they are on a short week.  I think Pittsburgh remembers that loss and will want to avenge it.

Carolina Panthers +14 at Philadelphia Eagles

Yes, the Eagles are way better than the Panthers, but in Carolina's last 4 games they have won 2 and lost by 3 and 3 in the other two.  This spread looks a bit high.

Miami Dolphins -6 v. New York Jets

Miami has to win out for the opportunity to make the playoffs, and in the span of their last 5 games, they have the Jets, Texans, 49ers, Browns, and Jets.  Don't know how all 5 of the games are going to go, but this week New York is without Breece Hall and Sauce Gardner, so it should start off well for Miami.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

New interim head coach Thomas Brown takes over for deposed Matt Eberflus, but what hasn't changed is that the Bears have covered against the Packers, Vikings, and Lions in consecutive weeks.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle can add to its one-game lead in the west over the Cardinals (and the Rams).  This game seems really close on paper, and when it is close - I take the points.

Los Angeles Rams +3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This pick is just a hunch, as I think Buffalo might suffer from a bit of a letdown after clinching the AFC East last week.

Los Angeles Chargers +4 at Kansas City Chiefs

Despite their 11-1 record, Kansas City has not really blown anyone away.  The spreads in the last few games:  W2, W3, L9, W2, W6, W7.  If they win this game, this trend will continue; and a good chance exists that they may not even win this game.

Dallas Cowboys +5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

I expect a shootout Monday night as Cincinnati is the #1 ranked passing team in the NFL, and surprisingly, Dallas is 7th.  Cincinnati's pass defense is 27th whereas Dallas's is a respecatble 13th.  What does this all mean?  A passing shootout.  Dallas may not win, but this game should be fun and close.

Big Bet:

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

New interim head coach Thomas Brown takes over for deposed Matt Eberflus, but what hasn't changed is that the Bears have covered against the Packers, Vikings, and Lions in consecutive weeks.

I am going with the fired coach effect here.  The Bears were close in many games before Eberflus was fired; and they might just win this one outright.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  93-95-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-5

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $400

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($775)