Picks of the Week

 

A winning week, but just 2 plays away from a HUGE week, as the Big Bet pushed, and the Patriots covered on a last-minute punt return.    UGH!!!  But, I will take a winning week for sure.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Detroit Lions +9 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Dallas Cowboys -10 v. New York Giants

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 v. New England

Home teams on short weeks cover just over 2/3rds of the time, and that is exactly what happened here!  A Micah Parsons unsportsmanlike conduct penalty which directly led to a Giant touchdown with 12 seconds left is the only thing that kept this from being a sweep!

New York Jets -7 v. Chicago Bears

A lack of Justin Fields, and a lack of Zach Wilson, wins this for the Jets.  And let's be straight - Justin Fields SHOULD NOT play!

Denver Broncos -1 at Carolina Panthers

In a captivating 22nd overall offense versus 32nd overall offense, I'll take the 2nd ranked defense.  Plus, Denver is in the Mountain Time Zone, not the Pacific, so the 1:00 start time doesn't worry me as much.

 

Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta barely survived the bad defense that is the Chicago Bears, and Washington is much, much better in that part of the field (5th overall, 6th against the rush).  This Washington team seems rejuvenated by Taylor Heinecke and with the re-emergence of Antonio Gibson.

Houston Texans +14 at Miami Dolphins

Two touchdowns is a lot of points to give up at the start of an NFL game.  Houston with a backdoor cover, maybe?

Tennessee Titans +1 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, this Bengals team is a pass-first, run-second offense (4th in the NFL, 28th in the NFL respectively).  But, at least the threat of Joe Mixon could slow down a safety every now and then.  Now, with no Joe Mixon, Joe Burrow is going to have to do it all, likely without J'Marr Chase.

Cleveland Browns +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is largely a pick on emotion.  Not my emotion, but picking on Cleveland's emotion.  This might be Jacoby Brissett's last start as DeShaun Watson is due back, and he is coming off a 324 yard, 3 touchdown game.  Brissett's audition for a team for next year goes well.

Baltimore Ravens -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

This is just a gut bet as statistically these teams are very similar (Baltimore 14th total offense and 16th total defense; Jacksonville 8th total offense and19th total defense), except in scoring.  Baltimore scores just enough to cover - 27-20.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Arizona Cardinals

In this game of mediocrity, I will take points at home, especially with Kyler Murray returning.  Well, that was my initial thought, but then I remembered that Arizona played on Monday night, so the Chargers it is.  Stay with the rules and you cannot overthink these things.  Or can I?  Ugh!

Las Vegas Raiders +4 at Seattle Seahawks

The Raiders are riding the high of last week's overtime victory over the Broncos, and continue on an upward trajectory to the 15th pick in the draft.

New Orleans Saints +9 at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco wins this, but on a short week it is closer than it ordinarily would be.

Los Angeles Rams +15 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Wow how the Super Bowl Champs have fallen.  15 1/2 POINTS?!!!  Seriously?  Kansas City jumps out early only to have a late letdown to win 35-24.

Philadelphia -6 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Green Bay is averaging 222.3 passing yards a game.  Philadelphia is averaging 228.1, and they have a better running game and defense.

Pittsburgh +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Sam Ehlinger is still awaiting his first passing touchdown, and Kenny Pickett has started to play a little better the last couple of games.  Not great, but better.

Big Bet:

Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta barely survived the bad defense that is the Chicago Bears, and Washington is much, much better in that part of the field (5th overall, 6th against the rush).  This Washington team seems rejuvenated by Taylor Heinecke and with the re-emergence of Antonio Gibson.

I seriously don't like any of these that much.  I considered Denver, because I think they will win, but I don't want to take a road favorite, even if only 1 point.  I thought about Tennessee as Cincinnati is without Joe Mixon, but Cincinnati beat Tennessee at Tennessee last year while giving up 1,400 sacks in the game.  So, I'll take the Commanders at home.

Last Week's Record:  7-5-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  79-77-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $150

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($700)

Picks of the Week

 

Another approximately .500 week, but capped off by a big bet loss, mostly because of a fluke ending quarter for the Bears, but that is a game that should have ended differently - the crazy lament of the gambler.  In Boston today, so all I hear is Patriots, Patriots, Patriots.  I super hope that all of this doesn't subliminally affect any AFC East picks.  Lets see ...

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Home team on a short week.  Glad the Packers lost, hate it for my picks.

Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons

So the Bears defense has been significantly underperforming the offense this year (who would have ever thought that).  But that being said, Atlanta's offense is the 26th ranked in the league.  Both teams are great offensively on third down (7th and 8th), and horrible on third down defense (31st and 29th).  This is a recipe for a close game so I will take the points.

Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I really don't like this pick, but I am trying not to overthink it.  Philadelphia is on a short week, having played a tough game on Monday night.  Indianapolis has the 4th ranked defense, so they could keep this close, even if Philadelphia wins.

 

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Pacific time zone team only traveling to the central time zone, not eastern, but they bring with them the worst total offense in the NFL and the worst rushing offense in the NFL.   Defense is still stout (4th in rushing, 4th overall), but this is much more than just a Super Bowl hangover.

Houston Texans +3 v. Washington Commanders

I also don't like this pick, but the Commanders are coming off a hugely emotional win on Monday night, and the combination of a letdown and a short week means Washington wins 21-20.

New York Jets +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Bill Belichick blah, blah, blah, can't be outcoached in a big game, blah, blah, blah, no way the Jets can take over 1st place in the AFC East, blah, blah, blah.  New England has the 27th ranked offense, and the Jets have the 6th best total defense (9th in passing, 11th in rushing).  Jets with points, yes please!

Detroit Lions +3 at New York Giants

Are the Giants the better team?  Yes.  Are the Giants playing at home?  Also yes.  But, Detroit has the 7th best total offense, which is balanced between passing (8th) and rushing (10th).  Detroit also has the worst defens in the NFL, both total and scoring, but the Giants are only 22nd in scoring.  This means a big game for Saquon Barkley that results in a 30-28 victory.

Carolina Panthers +13 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Two touchdowns is a lot of points.  This will probably happen then, since I have been generally bullish on the double digit underdogs to little avail.  I am hoping that Baltimore welcoming back Gus Edwards keeps them just rusty enough to not cover, and Baker Mayfield is just feisty/angry enough to keep this close-ish.

Cleveland Browns +8 at Buffalo Bills

I seem to be a big fan of the underdogs today, and that train continues rolling as the Bills have two consecutive losses, and two relatively close games prior.  I'll take Nick Chubb and the points.

Denver Broncos -2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Derek Carr's emotion during last week's press conference could galvanize the team, but it is more likely that the Raiders find it difficult to score against the best scoring defense, and number 2 total defense in the NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Cincinnati appears to have figured out their offense sans J'Marr Chase.  They will need Burrow to keep up his 102.6 passer rating in order to avenge their early-season loss to the Steelers.

Dallas Cowboys +1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

This game is in the 4 p.m. time slot, which means that Kirk Cousins will probably underperform.  Seriously, the Noon Nightmare (the 1:00 eastern time slot starts at noon in Minneapolis) is a much better quarterback during the early games.  Yes, his failings ordinarily occur during prime time games, but that must mean he plays progressively worse throughout the day.

Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

A healthy Keenan Allen makes this Chargers offense immensely better, however, we don't necessarily know if Keenan Allen is going to be fully healthy yet.

San Francisco 49ers -8 at Arizona Cardinals

Colt McCoy.

Byes:  Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Big Bet:

Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons

So the Bears defense has been significantly underperforming the offense this year (who would have ever thought that).  But that being said, Atlanta's offense is the 26th ranked in the league.  Both teams are great offensively on third down (7th and 8th), and horrible on third down defense (31st and 29th).  This is a recipe for a close game so I will take the points.

I am going to the well for a second straight week, as I think the Bears getting points are much more dangerous than when the gave points to Detroit.  My other thoughts were the Jets, but I didn't want to bet against Belichick; Denver, except they have been so erratic offensively, and the Bye against the Jaguars, but nobody would take that bet.

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  72-72-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($235)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($850)

Picks of the Week

 

A bad week, which although just under .500 was capped with a big bet loss, that I knew was a bad pick.  I even mentioned during the pick.  Oh well, perhaps that will count as a good sacrifice to the gambling gods which could help with this week.  Another unpopular Thursday night pick,  which became a home-team/short-week victory for me.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Home team on a short week.  Worked out, AGAIN!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle has been better this year, but it is a heckuva long way to travel from Seattle to Germany, and is it possible that Brady's game-winning drive turns the season around for the Buccaneers?  At the very lease, I feel like Brady is starting to really trust Otten.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

I believe we have witnessed the ascension of Justin Fields!

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I am not sure that Tennessee can score enough points. Sure, Derrick Henry is having another stellar year, but Tennessee is 26th in total defense and last in total offense.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Believe it or not, but Cleveland has a better offense (4th) than Miami (5th), and a better defense (14th) than Miami (23rd), but Miami's team is way more explosive, and those total offense numbers are hindered by Tua being out a couple of games.  Miami covers at home.

New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Alvin Kamara is the difference-maker in this game, although it does look like T.J. Watt will be back.  New Orleans is just better offensively (6th v. 28th) and defensively (11th v. 29th).  I don't like that New Orleans is on a short week.

Minnesota Vikings +3 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Case Keenum is a professional quarterback, and likely could be starting somewhere, but he is no Josh Allen.

New York Giants -4 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Giants coming off a bye, and even though Dameon Pierce is having a great season, he cannot do it alone, which it seems like he is being asked to do.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

How did Patrick Mahomes throw for 446 yards last week and Kansas City only score 20 points?  That will not happen this week.

Las Vegas Raiders -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jeff Saturday has an inauspicious start, bascially because of a rookie quarterback, Sam Ehlinger.

Dallas Cowboys -4 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay continues their tumultuous fall, making the Pittsburgh Steelers question not taking Green Bay's second-round pick for Chase Claypool because they thought Chicago's would be a better pick.

Los Angeles Rams -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

And we thought this would be an important game when the season started.

San Francisco 49ers -7 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers offense has performed admirably without Keenan Allen(4th in passing), but they really need Allen against the number 1 defense in the NFL.  Plus, San Francisco gets Deebo Samuel back.

Washington Commanders +11 at Philadelphia Eagles

Double digit is way to much for an intradivisional battle.  Philadelphia wins 30-20.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, New York Jets

Big Bet:

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

I believe we have witnessed the ascension of Justin Fields!

No, I am not reading too much into last week, as the offense was spectacular against a tough Dallas defense the prior week.  Detroit's defense is last in the NFL in total defense, scoring defense, abd 3rd down defense, 31st in rushing defense and 29th in passing defense.  Chicago is 1st in rushing in the NFL, and 9th in third-down conversions.  Fields keeps several drives alive with big third-down plays.

Last Week's Record:  6-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  65-65-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-3-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($335)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($615)

Picks of the Week

 

Another .500 week, but with the Big Bet being spot-on again, I inch a little closer to the break-even point.  (Yes, I know that cursed me to lose the big bet this week.)  So, a winning record overall, and just a bit in the red for the year, it might be time for me to make my move.  Also, starting off with a Thursday win that practically everybody doubted is a good start.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Houston Texans +14 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Home team on a short week.

Miami Dolphins -4 at Chicago Bears

The Bears have some good young cornerbacks in Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, but against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle the problem is that they are  young.  Oh yeah, and Johnson is out.  Give me Tuanigamanuolepola for the win!

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Washington Commanders

I really hate taking two road favorites in a row, but I feel like I have to do that here.  Taylor Heinecke is a decent option at quarterback, but this teams just doesn't score enough points.  For Washington to have a chance, they are going to have to get off the field on third-down, something that they are third-best in the NFL at doing.  They just don't have enough firepower.

Carolina Panthers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals

Honestly, I think Cincinnati is angry at how they lost Monday night and might be raring to come out firing against a bad Panthers team.  However, their firepower is limited without J'Marr Chase (Higgins and Boyd are excellent, but Chase just puts so much pressure on a defense.)  Plus, it is a short week for Cincinnati.

Buffalo Bills -11 at New York Jets

This is preposterous.  An 11 point favorite on the road in an intra-divisional battle.  However, I am so old that I remember when the Jets were on eof the best passing teams in the league.  That was way back when Joe Flacco was starting and not third-string, a postition to which he was recently demoted.  Now, the Jets are 14th in passing.  The Bills, are 1st in total offense, 3rd in scoring offense, 1st in scoring defense, and 3rd in total defense.  Loooooooong day for Zach Wilson.

New England Patriots -5 v. Indianapolis Colts

These Patriots might be the worst 4-4 team of all time.  They are 21st in total offense, 19th in total defense, but would you want to go against a Belichick defense if you were a rooke quarterback, huh Sam Ehlinger?

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

All of Jacksonville's losses have been within 1 score, which means they will keep in close.  Never trust a west coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, as they fail to cover approximately 2/3 of the time.  Plus, Darren Waller is out.

Detroit Lions +4 v. Green Bay Packers

A home underdog in a division rivalry game always seems right.  But, especially this game as Green Bay must be downtrodden after doing ABSOLUTELY NOTHING at the trade deadline, including losing Chase Claypool to the Bears because Pittsburgh thinks Chicago's 2nd round draft pick will be higher than Green Bay's.  Perhaps not the way Green Bay is playing.

Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

First, the Chargers (along with the Raiders) have to be the most disappointing team in the NFL.  As far as this game goes, Atlanta is 5th in rushing, and the Chargers are 27th in rushing defense.  The Falcons are 6th in scoring and Los Angeles is 31st in scoring defense.  Plus, the Chargers are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time zone slot.  Wait, anybody know the numbers on this during "fall back" weekeng?

Seattle Seahawks +2 at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle, seriously, is the 4th-highest scoring team in the NFL.  Arizona is the 30th-ranked scoring defense team.  Plus, Kenneth Walker moving into the starting lineup has been a serious game-changer for Seattle.  This kid is a star!

Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I honestly didn't know what to do with this game at first.  Both teams are disappointing, and are not playing up to their potential.  These are the two worst rushing offenses in the league.  Both have pretty good to great defenses.  I'll just take points.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Double digits are always a lot, but double digit favorites have covered more than they should have already this year.  Patrick Mahomes and his #2 passing offense in the NFL is facing the 24th-ranked passing defense.  And, he has a new toy in Kadarius Toney (to go with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Hardman, et. al.).  Derrick Henry is still a beast, but Kansas City can slow him down by taking a big lead (and they have the 3rd best rushing defense.)  Plus, a rookie quarterback is making a start after only throwing 10 passes in his starting debut last week.  Kansas City it is.

Baltimore Ravens -2 at New Orleans Saints

Do not let the 5-3 record deceive you, this Ravens team lost a few games at the very end.  They are still losses, but it means they are better than New Orleans.  Andy Dalton might throw for quite a few yards, but the Ravens should run all over the Saints.  Both teams do a good job of converting 3rd downs (9th/8th), and stopping 3rd downs (8th/6th), so whichever team wins that battle will likely win the game.  My guess is Baltimore because of Lamar's scrambling ability.

Byes:  Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Double digits are always a lot, but double digit favorites have covered more than they should have already this year.  Patrick Mahomes and his #2 passing offense in the NFL is facing the 24th-ranked passing defense.  And, he has a new toy in Kadarius Toney (to go with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Hardman, et. al.).  Derrick Henry is still a beast, but Kansas City can slow him down by taking a big lead (and they have the 3rd best rushing defense.)  Plus, a rookie quarterback is making a start after only throwing 10 passes in his starting debut last week.  Kansas City it is.

This bet is absolutely nuts for a big bet.  No way should I take a prime time game with this big of a spread.  But seriously, Malik Willis, albeit talented, is a rookie that did not have much big game experience in college.  A Kansas City touchdown plus a key turnover on the next drive makes this a two touchdown lead very quickly.  Other games considered, Miami (except they are on the road), Jacksonville (except they are Jacksonville), Seattle (they are on the road), and New England (quarterback issues and competition with Jones v. Zappe.)  If Zappe was starting, I would have New England here.

Last Week's Record:  7-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  59-58-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-2-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $80

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($280)