Picks of the Week

 

Last week was horrible.  Just atrocious.  The kind of week that makes it virtually impossible to have a winning season no matter how many winning weeks I put together.  The type of week that would make a lessser man give up making picks forever, or at least for the rest of the year.  I am not that lesser of a man, especially after I eat Thanksgiving meal where I will literally be more of a man.  So, Happy Thanksgiving to all.

I am making my picks for the entire weekend, but I reserve the right to change my mind should a key injury occur before then, or if a key player doesn't play and that player factored into my decision.  But, for the most part, I am going to just let it roll.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +3 v. Chicago Bears

I wish this pick was as simple as selecting the home team on a short week, but there is much, much more involved.  Matt Nagy has lost the team, and the team has made that clear to management.  Then, apparently on Tuesday, ownership representatives met with Nagy to inform him that he was fired after today's game no matter what.  Then, Charles McCaskey holds a presser to say he specifically told Nagy that he would not be fired.  So, who to belive?  What to believe?  What I believe is that this team does not want to play for Nagy, and the backslide by ownership probably hurts more than helps.  And, Detroit has played tough for the most part.  #FireMattNagy

Dallas Cowboys -7 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have lost 3 games in a row coming out of their bye week.  Included in that stretch is a loss to the Giants, and giving up 41 and 32 in the last 2 games.  Dallas averages just under 30 per game.  They should win handily, even without Amari Cooper.  Oh yeah, and home team on a short week.

New Orleans Saints +6 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

So this is the one game out of the three that the automatic home team on a short week is not an obvious pick.  But, Buffalo has lost 2 out of 3, salvaging a blowout of the Jets between a miserable 9-6 loss to Jacksonville and last week's annihilation at the hands of the Colts.  The Saints have the 10th best defense in terms of yards and points, which should be enough to keep this game close.  Unless, of course, the Bills team that we though existed shows up.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 v. Atlanta Falcons

This might be the worst game on the slate, so give me the points.  Jacksonville has the 17th ranked rush offense and rush defense, and those are the two highest ranked units in this game.  Ugh!

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

This might be the worst game on the slate if not for the Jacksonville-Atlanta matchup.  So, not only did Houston ruin everyone's weeks last week by beating the Titans (and knocking Adrian Peterson off the Titans roster, and perhaps out of the league forever), but they are also 2-1 in games in which Tyrod Taylor starts and finishes this year.  Taylor actually can play a little.

New England Patriots -6 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

I'll admit that I don't like this spread.  I feel like it should be more around the 4 range, but, New England is hitting its stride and is now the 6th leading scorer in the NFL, and the best scoring defense in the NFL.  And Tennessee's problems extend whell beyond just missing Derrick Henry.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at New York Giants

Competing algorithms in this one:  never give up points on the road in the division, and don't pick teams on a short week.  But the Giants, who had been playing well, broke themselves by going for it on the rushed 4th and 1 on Monday night (at least if you want to go for it there, call timeout instead of rushing the play).  It also broke Jason Garrett as he was fired.  Philly is on a two game winning streak putting up 30 against Denver and 40 against New Orleans.

Cincinnati Bengals -4 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a difficult game to pick because Cincinnati might be the most Jeckyll and Hyde team in the NFL.  So, admittedly, this pick is based a lot on feel.  And that feeling is that Pittsburgh is not the same team with Ben Roethlisberger, in a bad way.

Indianapolis Colts +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Is Jonathan Taylor the MVP so far this year?  Yes.  Will Tom Brady win the award over Taylor?  Also yes.  The Colts have scored over 40 in two of the last three games, and have won 3 in a row.  Tampa needed a boneheaded decision and play on 4th down by the Giants on Monday night to help the cruise to an easy victory from what was a close game.  Oh yeah, and Tampa played Monday night.

Miami Dolphins +2 v. Carolina Panthers

Another difficult decision.  My rationale is taking points at home in what should be a short game, but really is based upon the fact that this team looks way better with Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa at the helm.  And yes, that is his full name.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Should be a tough, close game so I will take the points.  Denver has the 3rd best scoring defense in the NFL, and 9th in total defense.  And, in a super-surprise stat of the day, Teddy Bridgewater has a higher quarterback rating than Justin Herbert (98.8 to 98.4 - negligible to be fair) (and a better nickname, "Teddy Two Gloves").

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Both Minnesota and San Francisco have won two in a row to bring themselves into the playoff discussion.  Kirk Cousins is probably playing the best football of his life (106.3 rating with only 2 interceptions and 21 TDs).  But, San Francisco has the 6th best defense - 3rd against the pass), and Minnesota's team is grappling with the Everson Griffen situation.

Green Bay Packers +1 v. Los Angeles Rams

So, the Packers are 9-2 against the spread this year, but Covid-toe Aaron Rodgers is 0-1 against the spread, meaning this pick is probably the wrong way to go.  But, whenever Rodgers has something to prove, he is very dangerous - with apologies to Baker Mayfield.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

And speaking of Baker Mayfield ... Tyler Huntley - that is all.

Washington Football Team -1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

No team has confounded me more in the past few years than the WFT.  If Taylor Heinicke can keep down the turnovers, they could win on Monday night.

Big Bet

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

This might be the worst game on the slate if not for the Jacksonville-Atlanta matchup.  So, not only did Houston ruin everyone's weeks last week by beating the Titans (and knocking Adrian Peterson off the Titans roster, and perhaps out of the league forever), but they are also 2-1 in games in which Tyrod Taylor starts and finishes this year.  Taylor actually can play a little.

In this weird year, yes, I am taking the Texans a a big bet.

Bye Week:  Arizona Cardinals, Kansas City Chiefs

Last Week's Record:  5-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  84-81

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($450)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($1,065) 

Picks of the Week

Just when I was getting back to normal, and little back-slide last week, but at least my big bet covered.  Thank goodness for the Packers, who are 9-1 against the spread this year.  Maybe I should just keep selecting them as my big bet (ugh!).

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -7 at Atlanta Falcons

Home team/short week, right?  Not when the Pats are on a hot streak, and Atlanta is not only reeling, they are pretty boring too.

Chicago Bears +4 v. Baltimore Ravens

On the one hand, Lamar Jackson is 25-2 the first time he plays a team, and this is his first game against the Bears.  On the other hand, Jackson is suffering from an undisclosed illness and may not play today.  He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, practiced Friday, but suffered more effects yesterday.  The good thing for Tyler Huntley is that Khalil Mack is having season-ending foot surgery.

Jacksonville Jaguars +6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco looked great last Monday night in their victory over the Los Angeles Rams.  But, that is part of the problem. It was Monday night, which makes this a short week.  On top of that San Francisco is travelling east and playing the early game.  I'll take points in that situation.

Carolina Panthers -3 1/2 v. Washington Football Team

Washington played great in their victory last week over the Buccaneers, but their defense is still 28th in the league in scoring, whereas Carolina's is 6th.  I know this is the return of Cam Newton game, but to me most importantly is that Christian McCaffrey has a game under his belt.

Green Bay Packers -1 at Minnesota Vikings

Did you not read the stat above where the Packers are 9-1 against the spread?  They have a better record against the spread than their actual record.  Plus, Aaron Rodgers has had some practice this week to get used to playing with his sore toe.  Poor baby.

Cleveland Browns -13 v. Detroit Lions

I'll admit that this pick is completely counterintuitive, but there is a tendency to overvalue the immediate past game, in this case the Lions' tie with the Steelers and the Browns' blowout at the hands of the Patriots.  Because both of those games will be overvalued, all the public money will be on the Lions.  Mine will be on the return of Nick Chubb against Detroit's 30th ranked rush defense.  Oh yeah, and with Jared Goff out, Tim Boyle is starting.  Seriously go look at his college stats - 12 career touchdowns and 26 career interceptions.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. Indianapolis Colts

A lot of focus is going to be on Josh Allen and the team's 2nd best scoring offense, but this game will be won by Buffalo's defense which is 1st overall, 1st in scoring, 1st in 3rd down percentage, 2nd in passing defense, and 3rd in rush defense.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. New Orleans Saints

The ascendancy of Jalen Hurts continues.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at New York Jets

The Dolphins have the worst rushing offense in the league, but, the Jets have the worst total defense and scoring defense, the 31st passing defense and the 29th rushing defense.  Miami will find a way to score some points.

Tennessee Titans -10 v. Houston Texans

I am not even going to bother researching anything to do with the Texans and I am just taking Tennessee at home.

Las Vegas Raiders +1 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Both teams were shellacked last week.  In that scenario, I'll take points at home.  Expect lots of passing yards in this game with Las Vegas (2nd) and Cincinnati (8th) going against a mediocre pass defense in Las Vegas (12th) and a poor one in Cincinnati (24th).

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I try not to overvalue just one game, but I do feel like we have been waiting all year for the Chiefs to explode like they did last week.  Could that be a bit of a portent of something to come?  I believe so.  Especially with Tyron Smith and Amari Cooper out for testing positive for Covid (with Cooper missing at least two games - which means he was unvaccinated).

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't like this pick, but it looks like Colt McCoy will be starting.  And, since Russell Wilson has one game under his belt after recovering from injury thanks to his rehab of 29 hours each day, perhaps he might be close to his former self.

Los Angeles Chargers -5 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger returns.  Is this actually a good thing or not for Pittsburgh?

New York Giants +11 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Giants are improving and Tampa Bay is sliding.  Perhaps Antonio Brown has meant more to this team than previously thought?  He is also out agains this week.

Big Bet

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I try not to overvalue just one game, but I do feel like we have been waiting all year for the Chiefs to explode like they did last week.  Could that be a bit of a portent of something to come?  I believe so.  Especially with Tyron Smith and Amari Cooper out for testing positive for Covid (with Cooper missing at least two games - which means he was unvaccinated).

Banking on Kansas City being on an upswing after last week's performance.

Bye Week:  Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  79-71

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($130)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($615) 

Picks of the Week

 

A slight winning week by number of winners, but the damn big bet got me again.  I knew that Aaron Rodgers would come back to haunt me as the Packers covered late in the 4th quarter.  Ugh!  Well, let's see if the winning percentage at least still goes up!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -8 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

So, I was so exasperated by the fact that visiting teams have been doing well on Thursday night, that I just picked the visiting team without taking into account how poorly Baltimore has actually been playing.  That is on me.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 at Washington Football Team

Giving up double digits on the road is never a good bet, but, Tampa is first in scoring offense, 1st in passing offense, 2nd in total offense and 2nd in offensive third down conversions whereas Washington is 29th in scoring defense, 29th in total defense, and last in passing defense and third down conversion defense.  And, Washington is 25th in scoring offense.  This game should not be close.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

The fact that Ben Roethlisberger is out screams for a Detroit pick, except, we will probably get a huge dose of Najee Harris against Detroit's 29th ranked rushing defense.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. New Orleans Saints

Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara both out.  Seems like a wash from that standpoint, so Tennessee is a much better team overall.  Mark Ingram is likely to become the leading rusher in New Orleans Saints history.

Atlanta Falcons +8 at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas should win this game, but Randy Gregory being out is HUGE for the Cowboys.  He was easily their most disruptive player on defense.  A lack of a pass rush probably keeps this game close.

Cleveland Browns +2 1/2 at New England Patriots

I should be taking Belichick in such a tactical game as this with both teams missing their star running backs, but this is one of those games where I just have a feeling that the Browns defense (3rd overall and against the rush), step up and pull this out - especially getting points.

Buffalo Bills -13 at New York Jets

The Bills are coming off a disappointing loss last week to the Jaguars, and I look for them to rebound with a vengeance.  This is akin to week 2, where after the Bills lost to the Steelers in week 1, torched the Miami Dolphins 35-0.

Jacksonville Jaguars +10 at Indianapolis Colts

Perhaps the Jaguars derive a little momentum after their victory over the Bills.  My guess is that they keep it close.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

The Vikings should keep this close, since it seems like every game they are in is close.  Not sure how the civil suit filed against Dalvin Cook will affect his play, but the Chargers 32nd rush defense might look super appealing to him.

Carolina Panthers +9 at Arizona Cardinals

PJ Walker versus Colt McCoy.  Not how anybody would draw up this game, but that is what we have.  I completely underestimated Arizona with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins last time, but at least Christian McCaffrey is back.

Denver Broncos -1 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I really have no idea how this game is going to turn out.  Since there really isn't much of a spread, I'll take the home team.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Anybody really want to bet against Aaron Rodgers after the last two weeks he has had?

Las Vegas Raiders +2 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

We have to be honest, this year's Chiefs are NOT the Chiefs of the past 3 years.  There is just something missing.  And the offense is probably not going to steady itself against the 5th ranked passing defense.  Plus, the Raiders have the number 2 passing offense in the NFL, and they are going against the 21st ranked passing defense in Kansas City.

San Francisco 49ers +3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Odell Beckham, Jr. is not going to be ready to play, or at least make a difference, in this game, which is a pity as the Rams lost Robert Woods for the season earlier this week.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Anybody really want to bet against Aaron Rodgers after the last two weeks he has had?

I am going to be more specific, I will absolutely bet on Aaron Rodgers after the last two weeks he has had.  Still surprised he is not suspended, though.  (Who am I kidding, no I am not!)

Bye Week:  Chigago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, New York Giants

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  73-63

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year to Date Winnings (Losses):  ($485)

Picks of the Week

And of course, I cannot have three winning weeks in a row, so it ends up being a horrible week.  Oh well, it is time to start an epic comeback.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts -10 v. New York Jets

Hooray - a Thursday win!

Miami Dolphins -5 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Please, please, don't anybody watch this game.  The 29th (Miami) ranked offense versus the 31st (Houston) ranked offense.  The 29th (Houston) ranked defense versus the 31st (Miami) ranked defense.  Ugh!

Dallas Cowboys -10 v. Denver Broncos

For whatever reason, big favorites are covering a lot this year.  And, Denver's morale has to be reeling from the Von Miller trade.

 

Cleveland Browns +2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland's defense (3rd overall), prevails in a hard-nosed close game in which Cleveland's number 1 rushing offense closes the game out in the fourth.

Baltimore Ravens -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Baltimore bounces back from the Bengals trouncing, or, at least I hope.

New York Giants +3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Not taking the west coast team travelling east and playing the 1:00 game.

Atlanta Falcons +6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Another game with dreadful offenses (Atlants 24th; New Orleans 30th).  Just going to take the points in this situation.

Jacksonville Jaguars +14 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo wins this, and pretty easily.  I just think they coast in the second half.

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

I hate taking road favorites, but they do win sometimes, and home-field advantage is not what it used to be.  Plus, if New England plays like they did last week, P.J. Walker doesn't have a chance, unless .... McCaffrey is actually healthy.

Los Angeles Chargers -1 at Philadelphia Eagles

This is basically a pick 'em, and in those situations I pick the better team, especially in the 4 pm slot.  The Chargers 32nd ranked rush defense scares me, but their 7th ranked passing offense should more than compensate.

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray's status makes this pick tough, but I am guessing that Murray does not play.  Colt McCoy is still in the league?

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Green Bay Packers

Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!  How many games does the NFL suspend Aaron Rodgers for?  My guess is none, but it should be at least 3.  Seriously, can somebody tell me the difference between Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers?

Los Angeles Rams -7 v. Tennessee Titans

No Derrick Henry does mean more passing opportunities for A.J. Brown, who is great.  Except, A.J., meet Jalen Ramsey.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

I am just hoping that Justin Fields keeps progressing.

Big Bet

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Green Bay Packers

Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha! Ha!  How many games does the NFL suspend Aaron Rodgers for?  My guess is none, but it should be at least 3.

Honestly, I couldn't figure out who should be my big bet.  And since Aaron Rodgers has already screwed both my fantasy teams (although Derek Carr is a more than adequate backup in one), he might as well have his team screw me over in my picks, too.

Bye Week:  Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Football Team

Last Week's Record:  6-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  65-57

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($555)

Year to Date Winnings (Losses):  ($460)