Finally, an absolutely amazing week. An 11-5 record, thanks to a late switch from the Bears to the Vikings once I learned the Bears' entire secondary was out due to Covid protocols. With a win in the big bet, I was able to erase a whole lot of losses. Perhaps in a season that was entirely unpredictable even before the Covid resurgence (Thanks Omicron!), perhaps all it took was total chaos for me to right the ship. For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Tennessee Titans + 3 1/2 San Francisco 49ers
Both teams have a lot of players out of this game, so the home team seemed right in a short week, which seemed shorter since we had 2 games on Tuesday night to finish last week, especially receiving points.
Green Bay Packers -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Two starting offense linemen, the strength of the Browns, missed this game due to Covid protocols, so it should have been easy for the Packers to cover. But alas, they lightened up from a sure cover to give up a late touchdown (but not late enough to call it a backdoor cover). Plus, the Browns were on a super-short week (Monday-Saturday). Of course, though, we should have guessed Aaron Rodgers hates Christmas.
Indianapolis Colts +3 at Arizona Cardinals
This was a super-easy pick, even with arguably the best player in the NFL out due to Covid protocols Quenton Nelson, (And yes, Quenton Nelson is in that conversation - if you don't believe so, you don't watch football). Did anybody see how Detroit ran all over Arizona last week? Jonathan Taylor Thomas must have been licking his chops watching film this week. My only regret is that I didn't type up my picks earlier so that I could designate this my big bet.
Detroit Lions +7 at Atlanta Falcons
Can anybody honestly look at these teams and not at least question if 2-win Detroit isn't better than 6-8 Atlanta? Of course we question that, so, give me the 7.
Philadelphia Eagles -10 v. New York Giants
Mike Glennon. Plus, the Eagles are 1st in the league in rushing, and the Giants defense is 26th in the league in stopping the run. Ten points in an intradivisional game is a lot to give up, but crazy things have happened this year. I hate that the Eagles played Tuesday night, but at least they are home.
New York Jets -2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence hasn't thrown a touchdown in forever, and the Jaguars may need the rest of the year to cast off the pall of Urban Meyer.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
First an angry Tom Brady is a great Tom Brady, and Brady is angry after his performance last week. Plus, Sam Darnold might make an appearance.
Los Angeles Chargers -11 1/2 at Houston Texans
Give up double digits on the road? In 2021, sure. Chargers haven't scored fewer than 28 points in the last 3 weeks, and Justin Jackson is more than a capable backup with Austin Ekeler on the Covid list. Houston is 31st in the league in scoring, so hopefully the numbers hold up.
New England Patriots Pick 'Em v. Buffalo Bills
Other than a win over hapless, directionless Carolina last week, the Bills have not been playing well, and, Belichick's game plan of throwing the ball 3 times in the Patriots victory 3 weeks ago has to be playing mind tricks on the Bills' coaching staff.
Los Angeles Rams -3 at Minnesota Vikings
The Rams are really rounding into their status as pre-season NFC favorites, no 6th in the league in total offense and 5th in scoring offense. Minnesota will be hard-pressed to keep up without Dalvin Cook and possibly without Adam Thielen. Rams played Tuesday, but Minnesota played Monday, so both teams on a short week makes this pick tougher.
Cincinnati Bengals -7 v. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have been resilient in their last 3 games, even though all 3 have been losses (by a total of 4 points). But being without Lamar Jackson AND Tyler Huntley will press Josh Johnson, who hasn't played since the Obama administration [Ed. Note - Hyperbole], into a starting role.
Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 v. Chicago Bears
Short week for both teams with the Bears having played on Monday and the Seahawks on Tuesday, but at least Seattle is home. Fire Matt Nagy!!!
Denver Broncos -1 at Las Vegas Raiders
Both teams mediocre, as is this pick. I would hate it either way.
Kansas City Chiefs -11 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
This seems preposterous, until you look and see that the strength of the Steelers, its defense, isn't actually a strength as they are 27th in total defense, and 22nd in scoring defense. And as good a season as Najee Harris is having, the Steelers are 31st in the NFL in rushing.
Dallas Cowboys -9 1/2 v. Washington Football Team
Dallas in the hunt for the number 1 seed in the NFC, and are cruising with 3 wins in a row. The Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard combination is WAY more dangerous than Ezekiel Elliott on his own. Plus, Antonio Gibson might not play.
Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
Saints down to Ian Book. Here's to hoping newly-signed Blake Bortles makes an appearance.
Big Bet:
Detroit Lions +7 at Atlanta Falcons
Can anybody honestly look at these teams and not at least question if 2-win Detroit isn't better than 6-8 Atlanta? Of course we question that, so, give me the 7.
Dan Campbell did say at the beginning of the year that nobody was going to play harder than his team - and he has been RIGHT!
Last Week's Record: 11-5
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0Year-to-Date Record: 119-105
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $700
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $700
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($235)
