Picks of the Week

Week 3 of the NFL Season, which means week 3 of my picks.  Hopefully I have learned some things about a few of the teams.  Also, I don't feel like doing much analysis due to the Jose Fernandez news.  So, I am just going to type this our while wearing  my Fernandez jersey.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

New England Patriots -1 v. Houston Texans

Belichick at home on a short week.  Now, I didn't expect what occurred, though.

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Yes, I am taking a road favorite, and a west coast team playing the early game on the east coast.  Both of those rules tell me to take Buffalo.  However, they are just that bad.

Carolina Panthers -7 v. Minnesota Vikings
First no Bridgewater, but Sam Bradford played well.  Now, no Adrian Peterson, and only Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata to replace him.  That will not work, as Cam Newton is rekindling his connections with Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen is the best tight end in the game right now.

Denver Broncos +4 at Cincinnati Bengals
I would not be shocked if Cincinnati won this game, but I do not foresee Denver's defense giving up enough points that Cincinnati covers the spread.

Detroit Lions +6 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
As every sportscaster/reporter has noted all week, Aaron Rodgers has not played like Aaron Rodgers in a long time.  But, Matt Stafford has.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 v. Baltimore Ravens

I am hoping that the egg Jacksonville laid last week was an anomaly, and that they turn it around this week.  Mike Wallace is looking like Mike Wallace was supposed to look for the Dolphins.  If Chris Ivory comes back to run, the Jaguars should have enough balance on offense to beat the Ravens.

Cleveland Browns +9 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

That is just a big number for a team that is playing with a lot of spirit.  Who knows, Cody Kessler may actually be the QB Cleveland has been searching for.  Ok, maybe not, but I see the Dolphins winning by a touchdown.

New York Giants -3 v. Washington Racists

Washington is horrible.  The Giants, well, they aren't horrible.

Oakland Raiders -1 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Tennessee surprised me against Detroit last week, but I do not expect them to win against two quality opponents in a row.  Although Oakland is a road favorite and a west coast team heading east, Nashville is in the central time zone, not the east, and 1 1/2 points is not that much of a favorite.

San Francisco 49ers +9 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks offense has been less than prolific against the Dolphins and Rams, so it might be hard for them to cover this spread, regardless of whether they win or not.  The 49ers have united behind Colin Kaepernick AND Blaine Gabbert, and they keep it close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams played great defense last week, but Seattle hasn't exactly been lighting things up.  Jameis Winston shoulders more of an offensive burden with Doug Martin's injury, and he will be up to the challenge.

Indianapolis Colts pick 'em v. San Diego Chargers

I have been saying for two weeks that the Colts are not going to make the playoffs.  Why do I pick them in this game?  The Chargers loss of Danny Woodhead, who does so many things for their offense, may be more of a loss than Keenan Allen, who is also out.  Plus, it's football and weird things happen.

New York Jets +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Brandon Marshall is playing today, although he might be on a snap-count.  Nevertheless, I think the Jets score just enough against the Cheifs defense to win outright by a field goal, so I will take the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
What the hell, I have already taken two road favorites.  Might as well make it 3.

Chicago Bears + 6 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

No, the Bears will not win as they quickly try to prepare DeShaun Watson to be their next quarterback, but they keep it within a touchdown.

Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Atlanta's offense is rolling, as they are first in passing yards and second in total yards.  New Orleans is 30th in passing defense and 31st in total defense.  And I get points?

Big Bet Game of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams played great defense last week, but Seattle hasn't exactly been lighting things up.  Jameis Winston shoulders more of an offensive burden with Doug Martin's injury, and he will be up to the challenge.  At home, giving up only a few points and they need to make a statement - all good reasons for me to pick the Buccaneers this year.

Last Week's Record:  7-8-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 17-14-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($30)

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $145

Picks of the Week

Week 2 of the NFL Season, which means week 2 of my picks.  A good start to my season, going 10-6 last week.  I hope to keep that momentum moving forward, and perhaps be more successful on my guaranteed pick.  A couple of notes, I reviewed last week's picks and I had listed the Jaguars at -4 1/2 against the Packers.  Of course that was supposed to be + 4 1/2.  Also, I watched the Thursday game with my buddy Glen, and I posted my selection, "Jets +1?!" on Facebook prior to kickoff.  This means I took the Jets, but was not happy about it.  Turns out, I was happy about it.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

New York Jets +1 at Buffalo Bills

Despite all of the statistics that showed how much the Ryan brothers own Ryan Fitzpatrick, a lot of that data came when Rex was the coach - and thus had at his disposal - the Jets defense when Fitzpatrick was toiling in Buffalo.  This time, Fitzpatrick has Matt Forte.  Let's not forget how bad Buffalo looked in week 1.

Carolina Panthers +13 v. San Francisco 49ers
I hate, HATE, that I am giving up virtually 2 touchdowns this early in the season before we get a really good feel of all of the teams.  But, San Francisco played the absolute latest game they could last week (the second Monday Night Football game starting around 10:00 p.m. Eastern), and they travel east to play the earliest of games this week.

Baltimore Ravens -5 at Cleveland Browns
I hate, HATE, giving up points on the road (the dreaded road favorite), but this Cleveland team is not good, super young (14 rookies!) and lost their starting quarterback last week.  The Ravens get a gift of schedule starting with Buffalo and Cleveland.

Detroit Lions -6 v. Tennessee Titans
The Lions looked good on the road against Indianapolis, whereas they now get to host the troubled Titans, who looked downright pedestrian against Minnesota.  Matt Stafford looked great without Calvin Johnson, spreading the ball around to everybody, with 6 receivers having at least 3 catches, and 8 receivers total catching balls in the game.

Kansas City Chiefs +1 at Houston Texans
It may take me a while to determine exactly what we have with Houston, as they seemed like two completely different teams last week against the Bears.  The same could be said about the Chiefs, except they are a more known quality, with an amazing team defense and a steady Alex Smith.  If the Chiefs can get to Brock Osweiler, this is a solid bet.

Miami Dolphins +6 at New England Patriots

This pick is completely counterintuitive for me, and I may rue the day that I made it, but, despite how impressive the Patriots looked against Arizona and how great a coach Bill Belichick is, but, the Dolphins played great defense against the Seahawks, and except for a dropped pass by Kenny Stills is the likely winner.  Not sure the Dolphins win this game, but should play within a touchdown.

New Orleans Saints +4 at New York Giants

The Giants defeated a tough Cowboys team last week in a game that was completely devoid of big plays.  The Saints lived on big plays last week in a loss to the Raiders.  I suspect that the Saints will make 1 or 2 big plays to at least cover this spread.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Boy did Pittsburgh look impressive last week, but I suspect that part of that display was due to the ability - or lack thereof - of their opponent, the Washington Redskins.  In a close divisional battle, I will usually take the points.  Plus, all three games last year between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh were won by the visiting team.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Washington Redskins

Boy did the Redskins look awful last week, but a large part of that could be attributed to playing the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Cowboys defense could be exactly what aids an ailing run defense.  What could also help the Redskins inept rushing offense is finding a running back that was more than a backup in college (I am looking at you Matt Jones and Chris Thompson).  Prescott looks like he could be really good, and if I am Josh Norman, I am not looking forward to playing Dez Bryant (oh wait, he probably won't).  Kirk Cousins should hit on a big play or two to DeSean Jackson.  With all of these thoughts, and the fact that this is a rivalry game, I'll take the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Arizona Cardinals

Do not be surprised if this turns out to be the best game of the weekend.  Jameis Winston is the real deal, and he spreads the ball around without just focusing on his star receiver Mike Evans.  This strategy was successfully used by the Patriots last week.  Arizona's offense can be prolific, but the linebacking corps of the Bucs, led by Lavonte David, is awesome.  I expect a great, close game.

Los Angeles Rams +6 v. Seattle Seahawks
This is my least favorite selection on the board.  But, I  just cannot select a second road favorite (see Baltimore v. Cleveland), and the Rams did defeat the Seahawks not once, but twice last year.  This sure does seem to be a much worse Rams team, but they still have some All-Pro players on defense, and Seattle did not look impressive against the Dolphins.  I will say that the Rams score a late touchdown to lose 28-24.

Denver Broncos -6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

I said last week that I did not think the Colts were going to be a playoff team.  The Broncos looked phenomenal against the Panthers.  Yes, the Colts scored lots of points last week against the Lions, but this Broncos defense is much more stout than the Lions defense.

Atlanta Falcons + 4 1/2 at Oakland Raiders

I am completely on the Raiders bandwagon, and I still feel that they can win this game.  However, the defense gave up too many big plays to the Saints, and the Saints do not have Julio Jones.  For that reason I look for the Falcons to cover this spread, and possibly win outright.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at San Diego Chargers
I have no idea what happened with San Diego last week against the Chiefs, as the Chargers looked like world beaters in the first half, and like beaten dogs the second.  Does Keenan Allen mean that much?  Perhaps.  The Jaguars played the Packers tough, even without any semblance of a running game.  It would appear to me that Chris Ivory will become the starting running back, once healthy, and that could make quite a bit of difference.  Can Travis Benjamin step in to fill Keenan Allen's shoes?  Probably not this soon.

Green Bay Packers -2 at Minnesota Vikings

OK, so here is my second road favorite, but the Vikings will be starting their second quarterback - Sam Bradford - in two games.  The Packers already won one game on the road - at Jacksonville - and the Vikings still looked lackluster despite their victory against Tennessee last week.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Carson Wentz looked good in his first game, but that was against Cleveland.  The Bears defense looked much better, led by free agent middle linebackers, Jerrell Freeman with 17 total tackles and Danny Trevathan with 11 total tackles, plus a sack.  The Bears should harass Wentz enough to give the Bears the victory.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Denver Broncos -6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

I said last week that I did not think the Colts were going to be a playoff team.  The Broncos looked phenomenal against the Panthers.  Yes, the Colts scored lots of points last week against the Lions, but this Broncos defense is much more stout than the Lions defense.
I generally like to get points for the Big Bet, but the fact that Denver's defense could neutralize Indianapolis's offense, coupled with the fact that CJ Anderson looks really healthy to start the season gives me confidence in the Broncos this week.

Last Week's Record:  10-6
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 10-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $175
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $175

Picks of the Week

It is back.  The NFL is back.  I know, it started Thursday, but I lost that pick so nobody can accuse me of cheating.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Denver Brocncos

The Panthers want to prove themselves I said.  Trevor Siemian is untested, I told myself.  What I should have said was, "Don't take road favorites".

Chicago Bears +6 at Houston Texans
No, this is not a homer pick.  I just don't think that Brock Osweiler is ready to lead a team to a 7 point victory when J.J. Watt is hampered by injuries and likely not 100%.  The Bears signing of Josh Sitton from the Packers was huge.

Tampa Bay +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
This is the year of the Winston, as Jameis starts strong, opening up a punishing fourth quarter rushing game by Doug Martin.  Atlanta - once again - is all flash an no substance.

Buffalo Bills +3 at Baltimore Ravens
Tyrod Taylor is bette than most people think, and I think the Ravens will be battling for the number 1 pick this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
Perhaps I learned my lesson about selecting road favorites.  I think the Jaguars look like they are going to good this year, in essence getting two first round picks with Dante Fowler returning to action.  Chris Ivory will provide some punishing runs.

Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers

Honestly, I have no idea what we have in the Chargers.  With the Chiefs, we have an incredible defense and a steady Alex Smith.

Oakland Raiders +1 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Since New Orleans is in the central time zone, I don't have to worry about the west coast team playing the early game in the east coast theory, so I can take points and bet on the up-and-coming Raiders offense.  I think Amari Cooper has a big game torching the Saints secondary.

New York Jets +2 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Ryan Fitzpatrick proves he should have been the glimmer in the Jets' management eyes the entire time.  Plus, home team getting points.  The Bengals are down to only A.J. Green as returning receivers, so it may take a few games for the offense to start gelling.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

I almost went the other way with this one, but it may be a few weeks too early to start picking them to cover, as they kept all 14 of their draft picks on the roster.  Not sold on Philadelphia either, but they may just be happy that Chip Kelly is gone.

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Ladies and gentlemen, Shaun Hill is getting 2 1/2 points.  SHAUN HILL?!

Miami Dolphins +10 at Seattle Seahawks

Way too early in the season to start giving double digit spreads.  If Arian Foster can still run, this should be a close loss for the Dolphins.

New York Giants pick 'em at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas was -22 in turnover margin last year (last in the NFL) and now they are starting a rookie quarterback.  Although Prescott is talented, he will make mistakes.  Eli is a solid veteran, but even with an unsteady running game, he has ODB!

Detroit Lions +3 at Indianapolis Colts

I feel the Colts are a bit overrated, and may not make the playoffs this year.  Detroit's offense was one of the league's best the last quarter of the season last year, and look to continue that production.

Arizona Cardinals -7 v. New England Patriots

Arizona has both one of the league's most explosive offenses, and one of the most staunchest defenses.  New England has Jimmy Garropolo and only 4 receivers on the entire roster.

Washington Redskins +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I will take points at home, and the Redskins have the making of a really nice offense with Kirk Cousins, Matt Jones - if he can hold onto the ball - and a revitalized DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon out wide, and Jordan Reed up the middle.  If their defense can finish middle of the road or better, this team can win their division.

San Francisco 49ers +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Even though Blaine Gabbert is starting, this team is coalescing around Colin Kaepernick.  Expect a healthy dose of Carlos Hyde.  The Rams need an identity, and you would think it would revolve around Todd Gurley - and it ultimately may - but we need to see it.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Ladies and gentlemen, Shaun Hill is getting 2 1/2 points.  SHAUN HILL?!

I really was not sure which game to pick here, but I did find a home team getting points, and going against Shaun Hill.  I expect Mariota to have an excellent season this year, especially with a more potent running game than last year.

Last Week's Record:  0-0
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-0
Year-to-Date Record: 0-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $0
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $0

Are you Ready for some Football?!

It is that time of the year again, time for the start of college football.  We have already had a fascinating start to the season with 6 ranked teams losing (and a record-breaking 7th to fall tonight, as FSU and Ole Miss - two ranked teams - faceoff in Orlando).  What would the start of college football be without a preseason All-American list? Once again, I am here to give you my preseason All-Americans. As usual, there will be more than 11 on each side, to account for the different types of formations (spread, three receiver set, 4-3, 3-4, etc). I explain some of my picks, while others I do not. Why? Because I can.  (Starters in capitals).

Offense

QB - DESHAUN WATSON, Clemson; Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech; Greg Ward, Jr.,  Houston  - Watson is one of the easiest selections on this list.  Mahomes might be the biggest and strongest quarterback that Kliff Kingsbury has ever had at Texas Tech and Greg Ward, Jr. is the best quarterback nobody (except Florida State) has heard of.

RB - LEONARD FOURNETTE, LSU; CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY, Stanford; Dalvin Cook, Florida State; Nick Chubb, Georgia; Samaje Perine, Oklahoma - The returning talent of this group is absolutely astounding.  Any of these five could be the load-carrying feature on this all-star team.  I start McCaffrey because he blocks, and catches better than Cook.

WR - JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER, USC; MIKE WILLIAMS, Clemson; Christian Kirk, Texas A & M; Calvin Ridley, Alabama; Corey Davis, Western Michigan - Nowhere near the names of the other positions (especially running back), but this is an exciting group of receivers.  Kirk is a threat to score every single time he touches the football.

TE - O.J. HOWARD, Alabama; Jake Butt, Michigan - Howard makes his third straight appearance on this list.  Although Butt will likely have better stats because of the overall talent of the skill positions at Alabama, Howard is a beast.

OL - CAM ROBINSON, Alabama (T); RODERICK JOHNSON, FSU (T); PAT ELFLEIN, Ohio State (C); DAN FEENEY, Indiana (G);  DORIAN JOHNSON, Pittsburgh (G); Zach Banner, USC; Conor McDermott, USC; Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame - Elflein returns from last year's All-American team, and Feeney is one reason why Jordan Howard was such an effective runner at Indiana last year.  Robinson and Johnson are the prototypical college star tackles.

Defense

DE - MYLES GARRETT, Texas A & M; JONATHAN ALLEN, Alabama; Charles Harris, Missouri - Between Garrett and Allen, we could see 50+ tackles for loss this  year.  Harris completes the SEC trifecta on the outside of the line.

DT - MALIK MCDOWELL, Michigan State; CARLOS WATKINS, Clemson; Lowell Lotulelei, Utah - Not just big space eaters, McDowell and Watkins both make plays from the interior of the defense.

LB - RAEKWON MCMILLAN, Ohio State, REUBEN FOSTER, Alabama; DEVONTE FIELDS, Louisville; Anthoney Walker, Northwestern; Jabrill Peppers, Michigan; Tim Williams, Alabama - With McMillan on the field, you better diversify your plays, bitches.  Foster is a tackling machine, and Fields is the type of playmaker that has moved Louisville into the upper echelon of college football programs.

CB - DESMOND KING, Iowa; JOURDAN LEWIS, Michigan; Jalen Tabor, Florida - Desmond King won the Jim Thorpe award as the nation's best defensive back last year, with 8 interceptions.  Lewis had 20 passes defensed.  Tabor is the second consecutive Jalen to make this list.

S - DERWIN JAMES, Florida State; BUDDA BAKER, Washington; Jamal Adams, LSU - JAMES is the heir apparent to Jaylen Ramsey, while Baker returns after a phenomenal year last year for the Huskies.

Special Teams

K - ANDY PHILLIPS, Utah - Phillips was on the team last year (behind Aguayo) for no reason that I just thought we should have three kickers on the team (kickers means kickers and punters).

P - JK SCOTT, Alabama - A booming punter who grew 1 1/2 inches this offseason.

KR/PR - EVAN BERRY, Tennessee - Berry led the nation in kickoff return average last  year, beating second place by almost 5 whole yards per return.  No backups needed because the two Christians can also return very well (McCaffrey and Kirk - not a religious reference).