Week 2 of the NFL Season, which means week 2 of my picks. A good start to my season, going 10-6 last week. I hope to keep that momentum moving forward, and perhaps be more successful on my guaranteed pick. A couple of notes, I reviewed last week's picks and I had listed the Jaguars at -4 1/2 against the Packers. Of course that was supposed to be + 4 1/2. Also, I watched the Thursday game with my buddy Glen, and I posted my selection, "Jets +1?!" on Facebook prior to kickoff. This means I took the Jets, but was not happy about it. Turns out, I was happy about it.
My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else, a reminder. Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.
New York Jets +1 at Buffalo Bills
Carolina Panthers +13 v. San Francisco 49ers
I hate, HATE, that I am giving up virtually 2 touchdowns this early in the season before we get a really good feel of all of the teams. But, San Francisco played the absolute latest game they could last week (the second Monday Night Football game starting around 10:00 p.m. Eastern), and they travel east to play the earliest of games this week.
Baltimore Ravens -5 at Cleveland Browns
I hate, HATE, giving up points on the road (the dreaded road favorite), but this Cleveland team is not good, super young (14 rookies!) and lost their starting quarterback last week. The Ravens get a gift of schedule starting with Buffalo and Cleveland.
Detroit Lions -6 v. Tennessee Titans
The Lions looked good on the road against Indianapolis, whereas they now get to host the troubled Titans, who looked downright pedestrian against Minnesota. Matt Stafford looked great without Calvin Johnson, spreading the ball around to everybody, with 6 receivers having at least 3 catches, and 8 receivers total catching balls in the game.
Kansas City Chiefs +1 at Houston Texans
It may take me a while to determine exactly what we have with Houston, as they seemed like two completely different teams last week against the Bears. The same could be said about the Chiefs, except they are a more known quality, with an amazing team defense and a steady Alex Smith. If the Chiefs can get to Brock Osweiler, this is a solid bet.
Miami Dolphins +6 at New England Patriots
This pick is completely counterintuitive for me, and I may rue the day that I made it, but, despite how impressive the Patriots looked against Arizona and how great a coach Bill Belichick is, but, the Dolphins played great defense against the Seahawks, and except for a dropped pass by Kenny Stills is the likely winner. Not sure the Dolphins win this game, but should play within a touchdown.
New Orleans Saints +4 at New York Giants
The Giants defeated a tough Cowboys team last week in a game that was completely devoid of big plays. The Saints lived on big plays last week in a loss to the Raiders. I suspect that the Saints will make 1 or 2 big plays to at least cover this spread.
Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Boy did Pittsburgh look impressive last week, but I suspect that part of that display was due to the ability - or lack thereof - of their opponent, the Washington Redskins. In a close divisional battle, I will usually take the points. Plus, all three games last year between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh were won by the visiting team.
Dallas Cowboys +3 at Washington Redskins
Boy did the Redskins look awful last week, but a large part of that could be attributed to playing the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cowboys defense could be exactly what aids an ailing run defense. What could also help the Redskins inept rushing offense is finding a running back that was more than a backup in college (I am looking at you Matt Jones and Chris Thompson). Prescott looks like he could be really good, and if I am Josh Norman, I am not looking forward to playing Dez Bryant (oh wait, he probably won't). Kirk Cousins should hit on a big play or two to DeSean Jackson. With all of these thoughts, and the fact that this is a rivalry game, I'll take the points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Arizona Cardinals
Do not be surprised if this turns out to be the best game of the weekend. Jameis Winston is the real deal, and he spreads the ball around without just focusing on his star receiver Mike Evans. This strategy was successfully used by the Patriots last week. Arizona's offense can be prolific, but the linebacking corps of the Bucs, led by Lavonte David, is awesome. I expect a great, close game.
Los Angeles Rams +6 v. Seattle Seahawks
This is my least favorite selection on the board. But, I just cannot select a second road favorite (see Baltimore v. Cleveland), and the Rams did defeat the Seahawks not once, but twice last year. This sure does seem to be a much worse Rams team, but they still have some All-Pro players on defense, and Seattle did not look impressive against the Dolphins. I will say that the Rams score a late touchdown to lose 28-24.
This is my least favorite selection on the board. But, I just cannot select a second road favorite (see Baltimore v. Cleveland), and the Rams did defeat the Seahawks not once, but twice last year. This sure does seem to be a much worse Rams team, but they still have some All-Pro players on defense, and Seattle did not look impressive against the Dolphins. I will say that the Rams score a late touchdown to lose 28-24.
Denver Broncos -6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
I said last week that I did not think the Colts were going to be a playoff team. The Broncos looked phenomenal against the Panthers. Yes, the Colts scored lots of points last week against the Lions, but this Broncos defense is much more stout than the Lions defense.
Atlanta Falcons + 4 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
I am completely on the Raiders bandwagon, and I still feel that they can win this game. However, the defense gave up too many big plays to the Saints, and the Saints do not have Julio Jones. For that reason I look for the Falcons to cover this spread, and possibly win outright.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at San Diego Chargers
I have no idea what happened with San Diego last week against the Chiefs, as the Chargers looked like world beaters in the first half, and like beaten dogs the second. Does Keenan Allen mean that much? Perhaps. The Jaguars played the Packers tough, even without any semblance of a running game. It would appear to me that Chris Ivory will become the starting running back, once healthy, and that could make quite a bit of difference. Can Travis Benjamin step in to fill Keenan Allen's shoes? Probably not this soon.
I have no idea what happened with San Diego last week against the Chiefs, as the Chargers looked like world beaters in the first half, and like beaten dogs the second. Does Keenan Allen mean that much? Perhaps. The Jaguars played the Packers tough, even without any semblance of a running game. It would appear to me that Chris Ivory will become the starting running back, once healthy, and that could make quite a bit of difference. Can Travis Benjamin step in to fill Keenan Allen's shoes? Probably not this soon.
Green Bay Packers -2 at Minnesota Vikings
OK, so here is my second road favorite, but the Vikings will be starting their second quarterback - Sam Bradford - in two games. The Packers already won one game on the road - at Jacksonville - and the Vikings still looked lackluster despite their victory against Tennessee last week.
Chicago Bears -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Carson Wentz looked good in his first game, but that was against Cleveland. The Bears defense looked much better, led by free agent middle linebackers, Jerrell Freeman with 17 total tackles and Danny Trevathan with 11 total tackles, plus a sack. The Bears should harass Wentz enough to give the Bears the victory.
Big Bet Game of the Week
Denver Broncos -6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
I said last week that I did not think the Colts were going to be a playoff team. The Broncos looked phenomenal against the Panthers. Yes, the Colts scored lots of points last week against the Lions, but this Broncos defense is much more stout than the Lions defense.
I generally like to get points for the Big Bet, but the fact that Denver's defense could neutralize Indianapolis's offense, coupled with the fact that CJ Anderson looks really healthy to start the season gives me confidence in the Broncos this week.
I generally like to get points for the Big Bet, but the fact that Denver's defense could neutralize Indianapolis's offense, coupled with the fact that CJ Anderson looks really healthy to start the season gives me confidence in the Broncos this week.
Last Week's Record: 10-6
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 10-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $175
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $175
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