Picks of the Week

Not a bad start to the season.  The missed Chargers field goal would have made for an excellent way to end the week, but alas, no comlplaints.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 v. Houston Texans
Not a great start to the week, but the visiting team on a short week for the Thursday games have a horrible record, plus a first start for a rookie, albeit talented, quarterback.  It was a really bad game, and Cincinnati really outplayed Houston, except for one play, and one drive.  Good start for Watson.

Chicago Bears +7 at Tampa Bay Buccanneers
Chicago played really tough, especially defensively, against an Atlanta team that lead the NFL in scoring last year.  Tampa Bay will be playing its first game after Hurricane Irma postponed week 1.  Tampa is everyone's favorite non-playoff team to make the playoffs this year, but I am not sure they will win by more than a touchdown.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
For the past few years, I have not been able to figure out the Baltimore Ravens, and last week was no exception.  I do know that Cleveland played the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team many think could usurp the New England Patriots in the AFC, tough.  DeShone Kizer looks like he belongs in this league.

Carolina Panthers -6 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
The Panthers thoroughly manhandled the San Francisco 49ers, but I suspect I will be writing some version of this sentence a lot this year.  Buffalo defeated an equally horrendous New York Jets team, but that game was closer than it should have been.  I'll take Carolina, who greatly benefits from a less than stellar starting schedule.

Indianapolis Colts +7 v. Arizona Cardinals
Carson Palmer looked horrendous in week 1, and who knows what will happen without do everything running back David Johnson.  Indianapolis looked downright awful last week, and who knows what will happen with Patriot castoff Jacoby Brissett.  I will take the local kid (at least for me) and points.

Tennessee Titans -1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
If I told you this would be a battle of a 1-0 team versus a 0-1 team, there is no way that anyone would ever have thought the Jaguars would be the team with the win.  As we saw Thursday night, it appears that Houston is not good, so I am going to discount the Jaguars win, until they show me more.  Tennessee is a dreaded road favorite, but 1 point isn't really a favorite, so I won't sweat it too much.

Kansas City -5 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia has won 3 of their last 4 against Kansas City, including the last 2 at Arrowhead, but this is not an ordinary Chiefs team.  They have speed in rookie running back Kareem Hunt and receiver Tyreek Hill, and Alex Smith isn't afraid to throw downfield.  Philadelphia looked really good against the Washington Racists last week.  However, it isn't clear to me that the Eagles have established a running game with LaGarrette Blount yet.  Although I think Kansas City will cover, this should still be close for most of the game.

New Orleans +6 v. New England Patriots
New England looked downright slow, and shall I say, old, against Kansas City in week 1, and this manifested itself on the edges of the defenses.  Unless New Orleans uses more of Alvin Kamara and less of Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson, they likely are not going to be able to take advantage of this Patriot DEFiciency.  They do, however, have Michael Thomas that can fly.  I honestly think the Patriots can win this game, just not sure it'll be by more than 6.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Minnesoata Vikings
My knee jerk reaction to week 1 would be to select Minnesota off their amazing performance last week.  But, I can't.  Sam Bradford is still Sam Bradford.  He could have a very good season behind an offensive line that looks revamped, and a spry Dalvin Cook.  However, Pittsburgh gets Le'Veon Bell back (not sure last week was "back") and they still have Antonio Brown.  Advantage Steelers.

Oakland Raiders -13 1/2 v, New York Jets
I hate this line.  I hate it, I hate it.  I would feel more comfortable teasing it down even 1 or 2 points, but that isn't the purpose of this exercise.  The Raiders defense with the exception of Khalil Mack is their weakness.  The Jets weakness is at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, offensive line, linebacker, corner back and special teams.

Miami Dolphins + 3 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers
I really like the CHargers this year, but Miami, a bit of a wildcard playing its first game of the season, looks to be well-balanced offensively.  Of course, Jay Cutler will do something stupid and lose some games the Dolphins should win, but the half point in this spread means a lot to me.  The Chargers, who would held primarily in check by the vaunted Broncos defense, should open it up a bit more this week, but not enough to blow out Miami.  I'll take Jay Ajayi and the points.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
Those that read this column regularly know that I hate road favorites.  especially in a game in which the road favorite has to play the Broncos defense after a subpar performance against a vastly inferior New York Giants team.  It looks like Denver is going to rely on the solid-if-not-spectacular C.J. Anderson to control the ball and let its defense hold the other team philosophy this year.  It could work here today.

Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 v. Washington Racists
Is it possible that the Rams have more firepower than the Racists?  Kirk Cousins needs a bounce-back game if he wants the big contract at the end of the season, which means he will want to throw it early and often this week.  Look for Trumaine Johnson to seal the deal with an interception on a pass forced by Aaron Donald pressure..

Seattle Seahawks -14 v. San Francisco 49ers
It's San Francisco.

Green Bay Packers +3 at Atlanta Falcons
For no other reason than Green Bay looked much better than Atlanta last week in their defeat of the Seahawks in week 1.  Green Bay looking to assert some early NFC dominance over a team that beat them in the regular season and playoffs last year.

Detroit Lions +3 at New York Giants
I feel that when it is all said and done the Giants will be a bottom dweller this year, and Detroit will  be one of the surprise teams.  I will gladly take points against the Giants.

Big Bet

Chicago Bears +7 at Tampa Bay Buccanneers
After what I saw last week and a much improved Bears defense, especially against the run, and a Buccaneers team without Doug Martin, I think the Bears at least keep this within a touchdown.  Altough I am getting more points with Cleveland, this bet seems safer.

Last Week's Record:  8-6-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  8-6-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $290
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  $290