Picks of the Week

WOW - what an amazing week.  And a couple of plays from an even BETTER record.  Even with losing the big bet (thanks for nothing Minnesota,) I still made enough to put myself in the black for the year.  Of course, since I mentioned it that means that I am due for big losses this week.  Not hoping for that, but we shall see.  Picks going up early because of Christmas and family, so I hope no major injuries or benching hurt my selections.

Also, I am still waiting for the Space Force Academy to start playing college football (IYKYK!)  Not sure when that will happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 at New York Jets

This is going against the betting rules, but San Francisco's obvious win as a road team on a short week last week gives me some optimism to take the Jaguars, who have been looking really good lately, as opposed to Zach Wilson.

Chicago Bears +8 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Not because the Bears are so good, but because the Bears have been playing teams relatively close.  They might give up 6 sacks, but boy is it going to be fun watching defenses try to catch up to scrambling Justin Fields and Josh Allen.

New Orleans Saints +3 at Cleveland Browns

Primarily because of the defense (8th total and 7th in passing), and because even while gaining decent yards, Nick Chubb has not looked exactly like Nick Chubb recently.

Atlanta Falcons +7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have scored 3, 16, and 10 points in their last 3 games, and suddenly are threatened by the likes of the the surging Chargers for the playoffs, even at 9-5.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at New England Patriots

I don't like road favorites, but Cincinnati is just better.  Although New England's defense is tough (6th overall/9th passing/9th rushing), Cincinnati's defense is 10th overall, so Joe Burrow taking over in the 4th quarter for the win is a likely scenario.

New York Giants +4 at Minnesota Vikings

Even when the Noon Nightmare is putting up huge numbers, Minnesota has looked like they are a team in decline.    And although the Giants offense is pedestria, the Vikings defense is even worse (last in the NFL overall and 28th in scoring defense.)

Detroit Lions -2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Detroit is going to end up in the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 v. Seattle Seahawks

I hate giving up double digits, but Seattle has fallen off a cliff.  They have won 1 of their last 5, but that was against the horrible Rams, and it was close.  Kenneth Walker is back, which helps, but as good of a story as Geno has been for most of the season, Seattle is cooked.  And, teams are 1-12 in weeks after they have played the San Francisco 49ers.  That is straight up and not against the spread, but it is indicative of just how much the 49ers beat up teams.

Houston Texans + 3 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Houston is coming off two consecutive covers - at Dallas and against the Chiefs.  Granted, those spreads were huge, but for large parts of those games Houston was the better team.  Given the way they have been playing, the better cover against the Titans.  The last ranked rush defense is worrisome against Derrick Henry, but eventhen, Tennessee is only 15th in rushing. 

San Francisco 49ers -7 v. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have been a feel good story this year, especially with the surprise that is Taylor Heinicke, howver, some of that shine is coming off and the Commanders are contemplating turning to Carson Wentz.  San Francisco might just be hitting their stride, and very well could be the favorites to win the Super Bowl right now.

Philadelphia Eagles +5 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

No doubt this line has a lot to do with the fact that Jalen Hurts is not playing, but never underestimate the power of the Minshew.  He is not going to be scared of any defense, even Dallas's (15th total, T7th scoring, 3rd passing), because he faces his own defense in practice every day (2nd total defense, 6th in scoring defense, 1st in passing defense.)  He doesn't have the mobility of Jalen Hurts, but he can fling it - so A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith could have a big day.  This spread should be 2 1/2.

Las Vegas Raiders +2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Both teams are hot with the Raiders winning 4 out of their last 5 and the Steelers winning 3 of their last 4.  There is hope that the Steelers can slow down Josh Jacobs, as they are 7th against the rush.  But, in a game that should be close I am taking the points.

Miami Dolphins -4 v. Green Bay Packers

Both teams looked good last week, Mimai in a loss to Buffalo and Green Bay in its Monday night win over the Rams.  Buffalo is much tougher than the Rams, and they are on a short week.  So, home team against the team on a short week.

Denver Broncos -2 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are on a short week, and are not very good.  Baker Mayfield struggled last week, and Denver's defense is better than Green Bay's (5th overall, 5th passing defense, 3rd scoring defense, 2nd third down percentage).  Denver wins.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is in a free fall, having lost 4 in a row after beating a bad Rams team.  Tampa Bay will survive the "challenge" from the other NFC South teams for the automatic playoff spot.  Plus, Colt McCoy.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

I said it last week, and I'll say it again - the Chargers just look different when they line up Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.  That also makes Austin Ekeler that much more dangerous.

Big Bet:

Atlanta Falcons +7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have scored 3, 16, and 10 points in their last 3 games, and suddenly are threatened by the likes of the the surging Chargers for the playoffs, even at 9-5.

Baltimore definitely misses Lamar Jackson and Atlanta plays almost all of its games close (L3, L3, L6, W3, L10, L3, W3) in its last 7.  I don't expect any difference in this game.

Last Week's Record:  10-5-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  114-101-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-6-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $285

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $130

Picks of the Week

I still don't know if that Space Force team is any good (way too inside of a joke.)  Anyway, albeit small, another winning week.  I will keep taking wins over losses.  No more byes means 16 games from here through the end of the regular season.  Hope that is a good thing.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Yes, San Francisco is waaaaay better, and yes Seattle has fallen off a cliff.  But man, I didn't realize the cliff was THAT high.  Well, home team on a short week isn't a 100% lock (although hopefully the rule occurs a lot more this week - foreshadowing.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Minnesota took it on the chin last week, but a loss to Detroit is not the laugher that it ordinarily was.  Indianapolis' defense is pretty stout (5th overall), but they give up points (21st).  Minnesota is looking to clinch the division, and is at home on this Saturday game.  Interesting note, for teams that have Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook, they are horrible at rushing the ball (Colts - 26th/Vikings - 27th.)

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

I do not like this line at all.  But, the rules are there for a reason, take the home team on a short week.  Although not impressive Tyler Huntley has been more than serviceable, and even beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh last week - with the Steelers playing much tougher since TJ Watt has returned.  Nevertheless, and despite the San Francisco win, or perhaps because of it, I will stay with the home team and just not like the pick.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. Miami Dolphins

Yes Miami beat the Bills last time they played, but did you watch the game?  The Bills beat the pants off of Miami, they just didn't win.  Plus, being a Saturday night game, another short week/home team bet.  I would have liked this spread to have been about 4 1/2 or 5 though.

Chicago Bears +9 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Only because the Bears should be rested after a bye week.

New Orleans Saints -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

You cannot get much worse that Atlanta's passing offense (31st in passing; 28th overall), but then you insert a rookie quarterback.  Good luck Desmond Ridder.

Jacksonville Jaguars +4 v. Dallas Cowboys

Jacksonville has been playing well of late and Trevor Lawrence (passer rating of 95.4) is starting to emerge as the franchise quarterback that the Jaguars thought they were drafting.  Dallas may still win this, but it should be close.

Detroit Lions + 1/2 at New York Jets

Zach Wilson!!!  Yes the Jets defense might be good enough to slow down the Lions, but I do not think the Jets offense is good enough to score - well, at least not score enough (Insert generic Zach Wilson's mom's friend joke here!)

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

I honestly don't know what to do here.  The Steelers defense have been playing amazing the last 3 weeks, giving up 16, 16 and 17 points, but Sam Darnold has also been playing well.  Kenny Pickett is doubtful, but does that make Pittsburgh better, or worse?  In a tough betting situation, I take the points.

Houston Texans + 14 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs, even in winning, have looked a bit sluggish.  The chance to clinch the division notwithstanding, I am not sure what this game with Houston really means to them.  I am not saying Houston will win, but more than two touchdowns is a lot of points when betting.

Las Vegas Raiders -1 v. New England Patriots

Las Vegas has won 3 of the last 4, and only lost by one in last week's loss to the Rams.  New England is playing on a short week, having beaten Arizona on Monday night.

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals are on a short week, and it looks like a Brett Rypien-Colt McCoy matchup to miss.  Whatever the under is - TAKE IT!  Even if it is 12.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Tennessee Titans

This team is SOOOOO much different - and better - with Mike Williams on the field, not to mention Mike Williams and Keenan Allen!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I am surprised that the Florida Gator fans in central/southwest Florida are not clamoring for Kyle Trask yet.  Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both questionable, but with J'Marr Chase playing, if only one of them plays, Tampa could be in for a loooooong day.

New York Giants +4 1/2 at Washington Commanders

I fully expect the Commanders to win this game and eventually make the playoffs.  However, these teams did just play to a 20-20 tie two weeks ago.  With the Giants getting routed last week by Philly, and the Commanders coming off their bye, I expect this not to be a tie, but a 3-point win for Washington.

Los Angeles Rams +7 at Green Bay Packers

I am not saying that Baker Mayfield is the end-all/be-all for the Rams.  But, he is more exciting than John Wolford, and Baker has a full week of practice.  Plus, there is no way that this line should be a full touchdown.  That is the ridiculous part - even if Green Bay wins.

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Minnesota took it on the chin last week, but a loss to Detroit is not the laugher that it ordinarily was.  Indianapolis' defense is pretty stout (5th overall), but they give up points (21st).  Minnesota is looking to clinch the division, and is at home on this Saturday game.  Interesting note, for teams that have Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook, they are horrible at rushing the ball (Colts - 26th/Vikings - 27th.)

I am getting the big bet out-of-the-way early.  This is my big bet because Minnesota is likely angry, they can clinch the division, and the "Noon Nightmare" will have a huge game.

Last Week's Record:  8-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  104-96-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-5-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $85

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($155)

Picks of the Week

My head is still spinning from the tumultuous Space Force - Coast Guard college game last night.  If you don't know - ask me about it.  Hope I can get that conversation out of my head and concentrate on today's game to keep up my winning streak, as last week was very good!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Los Angeles Rams + 6 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Baker Mayfield comeback notwithstanding, home team on a short week wins again.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh has won 3 of its last 4, and Baltimore is without Lamar Jackson.  Pittsburgh has been playing a lot better since T.J. Watt returned.

Minnesota Vikings +2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

This line is utterly ridiculous, and it seems way too obvious to pick the Vikings.  Not quite sure why I am doing it then, but, I have to.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville is better offensively than the Titans (11th to 29th), and even in rushing (10th to 15th), and exactly the same defensively (both T25th overall).  Sounds like I will take the points in what should be a close game.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at New York Giants

The third overall offense and the 2nd overall defense versus the Giants, who are in the bottom third of each.  Philly rolls.

New York Jets +10 at Buffalo Bills

Double digits is a big spread against a team that has recently made a dramatic upgrade at quarterback in Mike White, and which beat the Bills just over a mvonth ago.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 v. Cleveland Browns

DeShaun Watson looked pedestrian against the Texans last week.  Another week of practice should help, but playing the Bengals will not.  Joe Burrow leads a Cincinnati team that is 4th in passing to a bunch of scores.

Houston Texans +17 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I really want to take the Cowboys here just to say I did, but if I lost because Houston covers, I would be kicking myself.  If I lose this bet as it stands, I still stand by my bet.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at Denver Broncos

The Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring, whereas Denver doesn't score.  This might be a bit too many points for a divisional rival, though, so I don't feel safe with this one.

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brock Purdy looked pretty good last week, but more importantly, Tampa Bay played Monday night.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I bet Carolina wishes they had a quarterback as good as Geno Smith.  Hell, I bet they wish they had a quarterback as good as Baker Mayfield.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

I wonder how the travel of the last two weeks affects the Dolphins (they played at San Francisco last week).  They are still better than the Chargers and their 27th ranked defense, so the Dolphins' 4th ranked total offense should move the ball and score.

New England Patriots -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

I honestly cannot believe I am giving up points here, but the Patriots are on a two-game losing streak, and who thinks Belichick loses three in a row?  Also, the Patriots defense is solid (7th in total defense, T7th in scoring defense), whereas Arizona is next-to-last in giving up points.

Byes:  Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Washington Commanders

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings +2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

This line is utterly ridiculous, and it seems way too obvious to pick the Vikings.  Not quite sure why I am doing it then, but, I have to.

This pick literally pains me, as I have been a huge proponent of betting on the Lions, but, in this case they are giving up points.  In the 1:p.m. game slot, the Noon Nightmare strikes again.

Last Week's Record:  9-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  96-91-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-4-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $390

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($240)

Picks of the Week

 

Alright, stop me if you have heard this before... another .500 week.  And, another small winning week.  I would, of course, love a big winning week, but anytime you finish in the black.  Hope this continues.  But, it is Packers week, with the Kentucky Wildcats playing hoops in Michigan at the same time.  Gotta keep my head on a swivel today.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Buffalo Bills -4 at New England Patriots

A rare occasion when I select the road team on a Thursday.  But, by virtue of Buffalo having played on Thanksgiving, this was not a short week for them.  

Chicago Bears +4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Not since the year before the DeShaun Watson draft, I mean the Mitchell Trubisky draft, have I been this excited for losses (GO WILL ANDERSON!!!), but a cover I will take. Not sure of the Aaron Rodgers situation (although I know he is playing, and the Bears defense is 27th against the rush, but the Packers defense is 31st against the rush and the Bears are the number 1 rushing team in the NFL thanks to the dynamic Justin Fields.  Packers by 3.

Philadelphia  -4 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

By almost any analysis this should be a close game, except something tells me A.J. Brown might have something to prove.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 at Detroit Lions

I have been on the Detroit Lions betting train all year, but Jacksonville is seriously underrated as a bet also.  Both teams have about the same level of offensive numbers overall, and the Jaguars defense is mediocre whereas the Lions defense is putrid.

Cleveland Browns -8 at Houston Texans

Do I expect DeShaun Watson to be rusty in his first game back in forever?  Yes.  Do I think 8 points is too much to give in such a game?  Also yes.  Why I am picking them?  Houston has the worst offense in the league overall, and are 30th in scoring offense.  They are also 29th in the league in overall defense, but last in rushing defense.  Nick Chubb carries this day while Watson shakes off the rust.

New York Jets +3 at Minnesota Vikings

The Jets are much, much better with Mike White behind center, and the Vikings are dead last in the NFL in passing defense.  Jets do just enough to cover against the Noon Nightmare Kirk Cousins at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at Atlanta Falcons

The Steelers have won 2 of their 3 games after the bye, and their loss was by one score to the Bengals.  More importantly, they just seem to be playing better.  Plus, I need the Falcons to lose so when they trade up to 2 with the Bears to draft whomever is left after CJ Stroud or Bryce Young goes first, that the Bears get like the 4th or 5th pick so they can still get Will Anderson.

Denver Broncos +9 at Baltimore Ravens

Don't get me wrong, the Broncos won't win this game.  But, after racing out to a big lead, the Ravens collapse in the fourth and Denver back-door covers with a late field goal to cut it to 8.

Washington Commanders -2 at New York Giants

The Giants are going backwards, having lost 2 in a row and 3 of their last 4 (the other a victory over the Texans), whereas the Commanders have won 3 in a row, and have looked like a playoff team since settling on Taylor Heinicke as the starting quarterback.  Plus, the Commanders at 8th in the NFL in rushing defense have the ability to slow down Saquon Barkley.  This is dangerous, though, in picking a road intra-divisional favorite, but I am going to do it.

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

This is THE game of the week to watch.  A dynamic offense in Miami (2nd in passing, 3rd overall, and 6th in scoring) versus THE defense in the NFL in San Francisco (1st overall, 1st in scoring, 1st in rushing, 11th in passing).  But, San Franciso's offense - which is overall 11th in the NFL - has a boost in that Christian McCaffrey is becoming more and more familiar with the scheme and the team.  San Fran here.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Another road favorite in an intradivisional game, except the Rams are starting John Wolford.

Las Vegas Raiders -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers are banged up and Raiders have won two in a row.  I believe they can make it three.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Two quarterbacks playing at really high levels - Mahomes 105.3 rating; Burrow 101.7 rating.  And, with J'Marr Chase being back, I will take points at home.

Indianapolis Colts +10 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

With Matt Ryan back, I think the Colts can play smart enough to cover this double-digit spread - or at least I hope.  I hate giving up 10 or more points, so I will take them.

New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In a game that I will likely not even watch, I am just taking the points.

Byes:  Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at Atlanta Falcons

The Steelers have won 2 of their 3 games after the bye, and their loss was by one score to the Bengals.  More importantly, they just seem to be playing better.  Plus, I need the Falcons to lose so when they trade up to 2 with the Bears to draft whomever is left after CJ Stroud or Bryce Young goes first, that the Bears get like the 4th or 5th pick so they can still get Will Anderson.

I hate giving up points in the Big Bet, so -1 isn't really giving up points.  But, I also hate picking road teams more for a Big Bet, so, I am picking a road team. I considered Washignton (-2 at Giants) and San Francisco (-4 1/2 v. Dolphins) here.

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  87-85-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-4-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $70

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($630)