Three straight 8-8 weeks, but this is not helping me cut into my deficit. I have a good feeling about this week.
My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else, a reminder. Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Denver Broncos -3 at Indianapolis Colts
Denver has no offense. Indianapolis has no offense OR defense.
Chicago Bears +5 at Detroit Lions
Detroit has won 8 of its last 9 against Chicago, and I don't expect that to change today. What I do expect is a close game given how the Bears defense has been playing, and Ameer Abdullah's injury and fumble problems. If he is in the game, he will fumble. If he isn't, then Detroit becomes one-dimensional on offense.
Los Angeles Chargers -1 at Kansas City Chiefs
So technically this is a road, intra-divisional favorite on a short week, but it is only one point and it is Saturday night rather than Sunday morning, so not that short. The Chargers have outscored their opponents 131-53 in the last four games, all wins. Kansas City has a long way to go to recapture their early season offensive form.
Miami Dolphins +3 at Buffalo Bills
If the season ended today, Buffalo (with only 1 more win than the Dolphins) would be in the second wildcard position and make the playoffs. I do not believe they are a playoff-worthy team. Neither do I believe in Miami, so I will take the point. Both teams offenses are awful (Miami 28th in yards, 24th in points; Buffalo 26th in yards and 23rd in points). So I do not expect a lot of points to be scored in this game, so I will take the extra 3.
Carolina Panthers -3 v. Green Bay Packers
So Aaron Rodgers is coming back from a broken collarbone. It'll be interesting to see if and how much he plays, as Brett Hundley is still technically the starter. Doesn't really matter as Carolina has the 7th best pass defense to accompany the 4th best rush defense (5th overall). They will eat Hundley alive, and Aaron Rodgers - as great as he is - will be a bit rusty. I see the allure in playing Rodgers as Green Bay is still technically in playoff contention, but there really is no reason to rush him back this year.
Cleveland Browns +7 v. Baltimore Ravens
Yes, I know, I always pick against Cleveland, and it usually works. But, Cleveland has been playing much better as of late (see last week's overtime loss to Green Bay, and Baltimore's offense, despite being 9th in the league in scoring is 27th in total yards and 29th in third down percentage. Baltimore by 6.
Houston Texans +11 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars will win. The question is, "by how much:". Eleven points is a lot in an intra-divisional battle (See Dolphins hosting Patriots from last week), and Houston's defense is 10th against the rush (Jacksonville's forte) and 5th in third-down percentage. Jacksonville 27-17.
Minnesota Vikings -11 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Eleven points is still a lot, but this is not an intra-divisional matchup, and Cincinnati looks like they have given up. Chicago - of all teams - took them behind the woodshed last week. Minnesota should do the same. Minnesota is third in total defense and 7th in total offense, whereas Cincinnati is 32nd in total offense - DEAD LAST - and 19th in total defense. Minnesota big.
New Orleans Saints -16 v. New York Jets
With Josh McCown in the game, the Jets would have a fighting chance, and the spread would not be 16. As it stands, the Jets lead the league in Bryce Pettys and Christian Hackenbergs. This line couldn't be high enough to make me take the Jets.
Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2 at New York Giants
Yes, Carson Wentz is out, but Nick Foles does have experiencing starting. The Giants have experience in being 29th in offense and 32nd in defense, including 31st against the run. If the Eagles want to simplify things for Foles, they can run LaGarette Blount, Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement at this 31st ranked run defense.
Washington Racists -4 v. Arizona Cardinals
Washington is a disappointing 5-8 right now, but the Racists are at home, and although Arizona is not in the Pacific time zone, they are west travelling east for an early game. And they are starting Blaine Gabbert.
Los Angeles Rams +2 at Seattle Seahawks
A hugely important game in the NFC, and arguably more important than the Patriots/Steelers game. If any team will attempt to exploit the Seahawks depleted secondary it will be the Rams. And, Los Angeles has the horses to get after Russell Wilson, who has played extraordinarily this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. New England Patriots
This should be a tough, close game, which is why I am taking the points at home. I do not discount New England much after last week, as every team has their down day and Gronkowski is back, so I do expect them to play Pittsburgh tough. Pittsburgh's defense might still be playing emotionally after losing Ryan Shazier, but his production cannot be overlooked. He led the team in tackles, interceptions, passes defensed and forced fumbles. Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell do lead the league in receiving and rushing respectively, but New Enlgand leads the league in Belichecks and Bradys. Give me points.
San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
San Francisco - who played teams tough despite losing early in the season, now has a two game winning streak with Jimmy Garapolo at the helm. Tennessee, although 8-5 and in the playoff hunt, just doesn't seem like a playoff team. Their offense is 22nd in the league, and their defense, despite being 9th overall, is 22nd against the pass. A tough close game, but San Francisco gives Tennessee's playoff hopes a ding.
Dallas Cowboys -3 at Oakland Raiders
After a few game hiccup, the Cowboys have now won two games in a row after Tyron Smith has returned at left tackle. Do not underestimate his importance to the team. If you don't believe me, go back and watch the weeks 10-12 games against Atlanta, Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Chargers. Oakland, on the other has won 3 of its last 5, but those victories have come against Miami, Denver and New York Giants (losing to New England and Kansas City). I don't even recognize this Oakland offense from what I expected after last season. I blame Marshawn Lynch. Seriously.
Atlanta Falcons -6 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is another huge disappointment this season, and Atlanta, after struggling earlier this season, seems ot be hitting their stride having gone 5-2 in their last 7, including wins against Dallas, Seattle and New Orleans, as wwell as a 14 point victory over Tampa Bay.in week 12.
Big Bet
Carolina Panthers -3 v. Green Bay Packers
So Aaron Rodgers is coming back from a broken collarbone. It'll be interesting to see if and how much he plays, as Brett Hundley is still technically the starter. Doesn't really matter as Carolina has the 7th best pass defense to accompany the 4th best rush defense (5th overall). They will eat Hundley alive, and Aaron Rodgers - as great as he is - will be a bit rusty. I see the allure in playing Rodgers as Green Bay is still technically in playoff contention, but there really is no reason to rush him back this year.
This was a tough decision for me as I honestly thought about selecting 5 different games for the big bet. This was the home team giving up the fewest points. Other home teams considered were Minnesota (-11) and Washington (-4). Eleven was just too many points and Washington is too erratic. Away teams considered include Dallas (-3) and Atlanta (-6). Both teams were visiting teams and in the case of Atlanta, a Monday night game, which is always more difficult to bet.
Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 102-100-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($245)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($710)
