Picks of the week.

Decent week last week.  Travelling today so no time to write my analysis - only picks.  Will update my totals soon.

Miami +3 at Baltimore (Thursday)
Minnesota -10 1/2 over Cleveland (in London)
New Orleans -9 1/2 v. Chicago
Oakland +2 1/2 at Buffalo
Cincinnati -10 1/2 v. Indianapolis
New England -7 v. Los Angeles Chargers
New York Jets + 6 1/2 v. Atlanta
San Francisco +13 1/2 at Philadelphia
Carolina + 1 1/2 at Tampa Bay
Houston + 6 1/2 at Seattle
Washington + 2 1/2 v. Dallas
Pittsburgh -3 at Detroit
Kansas City -7 v. Denver

Picks of the Week

Absolutely horrible week,  but I cannot be mad at that.  How was I supposed to know that the likes of Brett Hundley and Ryan Fitzpatrick were going to figure prominently in my losses.  I am away this weekend, so very limited analysis on my picks.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City -3 at Oakland Raiders
I never would have taken a road intra-divisional favorite on a short week.  However, since I have missed almost every Thursday night game, I went the opposite.  Damnit.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Carolina Panthers
The Bears have played good teams tough at home (See Atlanta, Pittsburgh).

Tampa  Bay Buccaneers +3 at Buffalo  Bills
Buffalo's offense is horrific.  There 3-2 record is basically smoke-and-mirrors.

Tennesse Titans -6 at Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is a trainwreck.  Tennessee is starting to get in sync.

New Orleans -3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Although a road favorite, Brees has passed for over 300 yards each of the 6 times he has played Green Bay.  The Packers' offense - which already was a house of cards in the run game, now has questions in the passing game without Aaron Rodgers.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Indianapolis Colts
Admittedly, this pick is based upon Leonard Fournette being able to play in this game, which is still up in the air.  I just have to think Chris Ivory is enough to run on the Colts if Fournette cannot play.

Arizona Cardinals +3 at Los Angeles Rams
I really like this Rams team, but it appears Adrian Peterson might have rejuvenated the Cardinals offense - although yards might be tougher against the Rams defense.  Arizona is 5-0-1 in the last 6 games against NFC west opponents and 9-3-1 in the past 13 versus the division.  I don't need Arizona to win, just keep it close.

Miami Dolphins  -3 v. New York Jets
Miami was not ready for the Jets the first game, and I don't think the Dolphins will overlook them this time.  The way Cutler is playing, we should expect a healthy dose of Jay Ajayi against the Jets 28th ranked rush defense.

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
I changed this pick 3 or 4 times.  I have no idea, except that Minnesota is better than Chicago, and the Bears handled the Ravens.  Minnesota is shorthanded offensively because of injuries.  Baltimore is just shorthanded offensively.

San Francisco 49ers +6 v. Dallas Cowboys
Every game the Cowboys get Elliott will be important for the rest of the season, but of San Francisco's last 5 losses have been by a total of 13 points.  I'll take a home favorite.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 1/2 v. Cincinnati Steelers
The Steelers really have their offense going, with both Bell and Brown being focal points (as they should be).

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers
Hey, it's the Chargers and I only have to give 1 1/2?  OK.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at New York Giants
While I am already picking too many road favorites.

Atlanta Falcons +3 at New England Patriots
This is not last year's Patriots.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 1/2 v. Washington Racists
The Eagles are flying high, and I don't see that slowing down with a loud crowd at home on Monday night against a divisional rival.

Big Bet

Tennessee Titans -6 at Cleveland Browns
So a road favorite as my big bet?  New rule - always pick against the Browns.  They played strong and with emotion the first couple of weeks, but now they don't even know which of the 3, yes 3, quarterbacks they want to use.  Other options for me were:  Jacksonville, New Orleans and Pittsburgh.  I didn't select Jacksonville here because of the uncertainty with Fournette; I didn't select New Orleans because Green Bay always does something to piss me off; and I didn't select Pittsburgh because Cincinnati would be dominated and then score a last minute touchdown to cover, or something equally as weird.

Last Week's Record:  4-10-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  41-48-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($550)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,255)

Picks of the Week

Two weeks without analysis, that ended up OK.  Let's see what happens this week with some actual pick analysis.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Short week road teams are not supposed to cover, much less win outright.

Chicago Bears +5 at Baltimore Ravens
I don not expect the Bears to win this game, but I don't fully trust the Ravens either.  The Bears played the Vikings relatively close last week, so I expect that to continue, and Baltimore is only averaging 18 points per game anyway, so it might be tough to cover.

Miami Dolphins + 13 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
The Dolphins look like a trainwreck right now, but Atlanta may not have anyone to catch the ball for them except for Julio Jones, who is  a great option, but it does help to have at least somebody else on the other side for the defense to have to cover.

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
DeShaun Watson is coming into his own, and the Browns have already made a QB change to Hogan.  The Texans are 4th in the league in scoring at 28.8 points per game, and the Browns are only 25th in points allowed.  Look for Watson, Miller, Hopkins, et. al. to have huge numbers today.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Minnesota Vikings
I don't normally like taking road divisional favorites, but Green Bay has won 5 of their last seven at Minnesota.  Coming into this game, statistically speaking, the Vikings are more dominant on offense (9th in total yards to 16th), whereas it is the Packers who are more dominating on defense (6th in passing defense to 20th).  Aaron Rodgers likes those numbers.

Detroit Lions +5 at New Orleans
Raise your hands if you know that Detroit is outscoring New Orleans per game this year?  No you didn't.  Detroit is also third in rushing defense, going against a team that is trying to run the ball to take pressure off Drew Brees.  They are going to have to keep relying on Brees in this game.

New England Patriots -9 at New York Jets
The Jets have gone three-and-out on every opening drive this year.  If they do that to the Patriots, they could end up down 14-0 to a Patriots team that is 1st in passing and total yards, and 3rd in points.  For as much talent as people say the Jets have on their defense, they are 30th in rush defense and 25th in total  yards.

Washington Racists -10 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
I hate this line.  I was hoping for 7 1/2 or 8.  But, I have to take Washington as San Francisco is travelling from the west coast to play an early game, which is murder on the road team historically.  That and San Francisco is bad offensively (22nd in total yards and 25th in points scored) and just as bad on defense (28th in total defenses and 22nd in points allowed).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Another road favorite, ugh.  Carson Palmer has led the Cardinals to the second most passing yards in the league, but he has almost as many INTs (5) as TDs (6).  Some of Palmer's yards can be attributed to the fact that they HAVE to pass, since they cannot run after the loss of David Johnson.  I am not sure that Adrian Peterson can help with that.  Palmer, and possible Peterson, are shells of their former selves.  Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is second in passing yards per game, with Dough Martin now back after a full game under his belt.

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 v. L.A. Rams
The Jaguars - behind Leonard Fournette - are number one in the league in rushing at 165.2 yards per game, and the Rams are 27th in rushing defense.  Gurley will get his yards as well, but this game is about Leonard Fournette.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Yes the Chiefs are undefeated.  Yes the Steelers have not been as dominating as expected this year (see loss to Chicago Bears).  So, this looks like Kansas City in a romp.  However, Kansas City's defenses is 27th in total  yards allowed and 25th in passing yards allowed.  I think Antonio Brown is going to have a huge game.  Kareem Hunt can have a big game as well as the Steelers are 28th in rushing defense.

Oakland Raiders -3 v. L.A. Chargers
Offensively the Raiders have been horrible (30th in total yards; 26th in passing yards), but Derek Carr's return has to give them a spark and Amari Cooper some receptions, right?

Denver Broncos -13 v. New York Giants
Big line for a Sunday night game, but the Giants are horrible, and they lost almost every receiver on their roster.  It is time for the practice squad to try to step up against Denver's 1st ranked defense.  Won't happen.

Indianapolis Colts +7 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
The only winners in this game are those that do not watch.  Bad offenses (Indianapolis is 25th and Tennessee is 24th).  Bad defenses (Colts are 31st and Titans are 22nd).  I'll take the points, because, why not.

Big Bet

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
DeShaun Watson is coming into his own, and the Browns have already made a QB change to Hogan.  The Texans are 4th in the league in scoring at 28.8 points per game, and the Browns are only 25th in points allowed.  Look for Watson, Miller, Hopkins, et. al. to have huge numbers today.
A lot of points to give up for a big bet, but the Texans are at home, whereas the Packers are giving up points on the road, and Denver is giving 13.  I also thought about Jacksonville, but its Jacksonville.

Last Two Weeks' Record:  16-13-1
Last Two Weeks' Big Bet:  1-1
Year-to-Date Record:  37-38-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $155
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($705)

Picks of the Week

Since I am literally travelling home right now from a college football game, and because it is close to start time, no analysis this week, just picks.  I was 8-8 last week, and will update my record when Ibget somewhere stationary.

On to the picks:

Tampa Bay +4 v.  New England Patriots

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v.  Buffalo Bills

New York Jets - 1 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Carolina Panthers + 1 1/2 at Detroit Lions

San Francisco 49ers +1 at Indianapolis Colts

Miami Dolphins -1 v. Tennessee Titans

New York Giants -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Philadelphis Eagles -6 v. Arizona Cardinals

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Los Angeles Rams -2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Oakland Raiders -3 v. Baltimore Ravens 

Green Bay Packers + 2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys 

Houston Texans +2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Chicago Bears +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Big Bet:  Green Bay +2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Divisional Series Roundtable

So, the corny, but fascinating one-and-done wild card games are completed, and the major league divisional series start shortly.  The guys at WeMakeItRain gathered together to discuss the four series before they unfold.

Pepster:  So guys, we are going to give our thoughts and predictions for the four divisional series.  Who do you got?

Hopps:  Cubs over Dodgers, Yankees over Indians.  Cubs over Yankees; that will make for great tv.

Pepster:  Those are some good predictions, but why don't we start with the divisional series,  you know, the games that are starting today.  Let's take them in the order they commence. Boston and Houston. 

Hopps.  Sox lose in 3.  Astros definitely.

Pepster:   But wait, don't you live in New England?  Must be the old defeatist attitude is back.  Sinickal?

Sinickal:  Houston.  I hate Sox fans more that I hate that flat, smelly city in Texas.

Pepster:  Ah yes, Houston.  The city that ALWAYS sleeps.  But, I will take them.  All-World starting pitcher Dallas Kuechel complained about the Astros' lack of activity at the trade deadline worked, as Houston then went after - and got - Justin Verlander.   And, their lineup is stacked with Altuve, Springer, Correa, Reddick, Gurriel, and the old man - who always seems to produce in the playoffs - Carlos Beltran.  Especially if David Price ends up playing a major role.  Then definitely the Astros.

How about the other American League series, the Yankees and Indians?  I like the Indians, and not just because of the winning streak.  Cory Kluber is the best single pitcher in this series, including the Yankees bullpen, and because Chapman is still shell-shocked from all the innings in the World Series last year.

Hopps:  (On the phone with someone else) I'll take Tampa and the over tonight.  Oh, right, sorry.  Yankees.  What a World Series if its Cubs/Yankees.

Sinickal:  Indians.  Cleveland will pull out all the stops to ensure that Gabrielle Union stays after leaving Chicago.  She is clearly the good luck charm here.

Pepster:  No wonder you went Houston.  You are rooting for the Kate Upton - Gabrielle Union ALCS.  To the national league, the Nationals versus the Cubs.  Silas, you have an interesting rooting interest as you live down the street from Nationals Park but are a lifelong Cubs fan.

Silas:  That's right on both accounts.  My father taught me growing up that New Hampshire was a suburb of Chicago.  But, I cannot openly root for the Cubs; that's bad luck.  Besides, WE don't have Gabrielle Union anymore. 

Pepster:  D-Wade did leave Chicago, that is true.  But, experience means something, and so long as Trae Turner doesn't get on base with Jon Lester pitching (or else he will steal everything in the park, not just the bases), the Cubs will win this series.

Hopps:  I have Chicago in the World Series, so I have to pick them to win this series.

Pepster:  That is solid logic. OK, out west.  Colorado and Los Angeles.  I pick the Dodgers.  Yes, they lost 16-17 recently, but they have the magical Cuban with the amazing batflips - and Yasiel Puig to boot.  (I was referring to Yasmani Grandal, for those that don't get it).  Bellinger, Seager, Turner and veterans to go with Kershaw, Yu and Jansen on the mound.  L.A. it is.

Hopps:  Dodgers.

Sinickal:  L.A.  Gabrielle Union went to high school there, and works there.

Pepster:  I am sensing a theme, and I like it.

Hopps:  I'm enjoying the use of the word "WE".  Like you were involved.

Pepster:  On that note, we are going to have to wrap-up our roundtable discussion.  Enjoy the divisional series, and see everyone back here for the ALCS and NLCS.

Picks of the Week

Boy was last week brutal.  I am a bit busy this morning, so no analysis, just picks.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears +7 at Green Bay Packers

New Orleans Saints -4 v. Miami Dolphins in London

Atlanta Falcons -6 v. Buffalo Bills

Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 at Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Cleveland Browns

Los Angeles Rams +6 at Dallas Cowboys

Houston Texans +3 v. Tennessee Titans

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Carolina Panthers +9 1/2 at New England

Jacksonville Jaguars -4 at New York Jets

San Francisco 49ers +6 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Philadelphia Eagles +2 at Lost Angeles Chargers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. New York Giants

Oakland Raiders +3 at Denver Broncos

Indianapolis Colts +13 at Seattle Seahawks

Washington Racists +7 at Kansas City Chiefs

Big Bet

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. New York Giants

Last Week's Record:  5-11
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  21-25-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($875)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($860)