You can see my record for last week down below, but I am not commenting on the games here, except to say we at WeMakeItRain wish nothing but the speediest of recoveries to Damar Hamlin and the best to his family. Also, major kudos to the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals training and medical staff for performing exactly how I am sure they expected, in a situation they never expect to occur!!!
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks...
Las Vegas Raiders +9 v. Kansas City Chiefs -9
Two serious betting rules (at least for this year) could conflict in this game. First, I (almost) always want to take the home team on a short week, and Saturday games are a short week. But, this year the team that plays the San Francisco 49ers are 1-14 this year the week AFTER playing the Niners. Well, the betting gods help us here with a 9 point spread, because the Raiders can cover as the home team on a short week AND lose the game.
Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
Home team on a short week, AND also just the better team. The defenses are similar (25th/23rd overall; 15th/T12th scoring), but the offenses are way different. Jacksonville is 8th in total offense with a really balanced rushing (10th) and passing (10th) game. Tennessee is 30th in total offense and 29th in scoring offense. Jaguars to the playoffs after covering.
Minnesota Vikings -6 at Chicago Bears
Nathan Peterman throws for more interceptions than yards (148/127) as the Bears secure the number 1 overall pick.
Houston Texans +3 at Indianapolis Colts
Like I said, the Bears secure the number 1 overall pick.
Cincinnati Bengals -9 v. Baltimore Ravens
Under ordinary circumstances, this spread is way too large, except, the Bengals will be keyed up after having last week's game canceled, Lamar Jackson is out again this week, and the Bengals want to guarantee that a coin flip doesn't keep them from hosting a home playoff game if they play the Ravens next week. Baltimore has scored 13, 17, 13, 16, and 10 the last 5 games. That should be easy for Cincinnati to cover as Baltimore has the 24th ranked passing defense in the NFL.
New York Jets + 3 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
Getting points in a close divisional game? Yes please. Plus, Skylar Thompson is starting at qurterback for the Dolphins. For a team that has been bouncing back and forth between Tuanigamanualepola Tagavailoa, Teddy Bridgewater, and Skylar Thompson, Thompson is looking to be the first Dolphins backup quarterback to finish a game he started. If not, Mike Glennon and his neck could make an appearance. Joe Flacco starting in what is likely his final NFL game.
Carolina Panthers +3 at New Orleans Saints
Honestly, I didn't give this game much thought, just taking the points. Carolina has played better under Sam Darnold lately.
New England Patriots +7 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Buffalo will be highly emotional, but let's not forget they lost 2 defensive backs in the short time against Cincinnati, and they have not been playing great prior to last week. New England has an opportunity to make the playoffs with a win, they are out if they lose. That is enough to keep this game close.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 at Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay has already clinched the NFC South, but the way they have been playing they cannot afford to rest players or to take their foot off the gas. They need this game as preparation, so they will play hard - at least hard enough to cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh has an outside chance at the playoffs (Patriots loss, Dolphins loss) both of which could legitimately happen. Since all 3 of those games will be happening simultaneously, I expect Pittsburgh to come out firing against the Browns.
Los Angeles Rams +6 at Seattle Seahawks
Yes the Seahawks have playoffs on their mind, but I don't think they have enough firepower to cover this spread, even if they win.
Los Angeles Chargers +3 at Denver Broncos
Even though the Chargers don't have much to play for (they are already in the playoffs, and locked into 5 or 6, no first round home game no matter what), they will play starters at least a half, as Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams all need to shake off the rust from all the games Allen and Williams missed. That is enough to keep it close.
New York Giants +14 at Philadelphia Eagles
My normal site has no number on this game, likely because the Jalen Hurts situation (will he or won't he play) is up in the air. But, vegas insider shows all other sportsbooks between 14 and 14 1/2, so I will take the fewer of those two choices.
Arizona Cardinals +14 at San Francisco 49ers
Two consecutive two-touchdown underdogs in a stellar David Blough v. Brock Purder thriller. I'll take those points, even though San Francisco will be hoping for the number 1 overall seed.
Dallas Cowboys -7 at Washington Commanders
Betting on Washington has done me will this year, but not recently. Plus even though Carson Wentz is starting, they have announced rookie Sam Howell will play. Sam Howell, meet Micah Parsons.
Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
The Lions have been a great story this year, but doesn't this entire Packers season feel like it ends in a first round playoff loss with Aaron Rodgers criticizing the coaching?
Big Bet:
Minnesota Vikings -6 at Chicago Bears
Nathan Peterman throws for more interceptions than yards (148/127) as the Bears secure the number 1 overall pick.
Plus, Minnesota is fighting for the first-round bye (along with Philadelphia and San Francisco).
Last Week's Record: 8-6-1-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 130-115-8-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-7-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $290
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $175
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