Picks of the Week

It has been awhile since I last posted, but to be honest, I have been on a bit of a roll making money and I didn't want to jinx it.  To confirm, I am in a picks pool, so that you can see the number of games I have picked correctly in the link immediately after this paragraph (my team is the Mad Cubans).  The last posted picks on this site was Week 13, so for my total numbers you can look at the number of wins for weeks 13-16.  I will add those to my totals below.  Only in week 13 did I have a guaranteed Big Bet, since we do not have such a thing in my picks pool.

http://games.espn.go.com/nfl-pigskin-pickem/2013/en/group?groupID=43052

Now, on to this week's picks.

Atlanta Falcons +6 v. Carolina Panthers
Carolina is a hot team coming into week 17, but they are not offensively dynamic.  As we saw last week against the 49ers, Atlanta can still move the ball.  I will take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati is a completely different team at home, having gone 7-0 so far this year; plus they are playing for a bye in the playoffs.  The Ravens are playing for their playoff lives, but they have already exceeded expectations this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 1- 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville has actually had a very interesting second half and is not that bad.  Even when the Colts win (usually against the tougher teams in the league), they do not dominate the score.

New York Jets +5 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
The Jets have one of the stingiest run defenses in the league and the Dolphins are one of the worst rushing offenses in the league.  That means all Miami will be able to try is to pass, and that plays right into the Jets pass rush.  Muhammad Wilkerson will have a helluva game after being snubbed from the Pro Bowl.  The Dolphins still might win, but it will be close.

Detroit Lions +3 at Minnesota Vikings
Detroit has been disappointing yes, but how are they getting points in this game?

New York Giants -3 v. Washington Redskins
This is a complete wildcard given that Mike Shanahan might be intentionally tanking this game or he might just call anything wild and unusual and really mess things up.  The Giants have actually been pretty good in the second half of the season.

Cleveland Browns +7 at Pittsburgh Steelers 
Pittsburgh actually has a chance to make the playoffs, but they have to win this game and have about 4,193 other combinations all occur at the same time.  Cleveland's defense is pretty stingy, and I would watch this game just to see the Antonio Brown/Joe Haden matchup out wide.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Chicago Bears
The Bears have been horrible against the spread, and now comes word that Aaron Rodgers, Eddie Lacy and Randall Cobb will all be playing.  Ouch.

New England -7 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
New England with something on the line in the regular season - like a bye week in the playoffs - is one of the surest bets in football.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12 at New Orleans Saints
I expect New Orleans to win this game, but Tampa Bay has been competitive under Mike Glennon, and should provide a tougher than expected game for the Saints.

San Francisco 49ers -1 v. Arizona Cardinals
I have been very late to the Arizona Cardinals bandwagon - in fact, I still do not trust them.  I mean pulling out a win in Seattle with Carson Palmer throwing 4 interceptions?  Really?!  Of course, not quite understanding Arizona has hurt me tremendously in my pics this year.  Them and San Diego.

Denver Broncos -10 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
I don't want to pick this game at all, because we don't really know how long the offensive stars for the Broncos will play, but I thank that they will play long enough to score a ton of points.

Kansas City Chiefs +10 at San Diego Chargers
The spread is only this high because Kansas City virtually has nothing to play for, while the Chargers, at home, have everything.  The Chiefs are injured on defense, but I still think they will keep it close.

Seattle Seahawks -11 1/2 v. St. Louis Rams
If this were earlier in the season, I would easily have picked the Rams and their defense to cover this spread.  However, after losing at home to the Cardinals last week, I think Seattle wants to make a statement to the league that last week was an anomaly, and should just come out and destroy the Rams.

Dallas Cowboys +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I expect the Eagles to win this game, but the initial spread was 3 points in favor of Dallas, and this swing occurring after the announcement that Romo was injured and not playing in this game.  Is Romo really worth a 10 point swing?  I do not think so, so I believe that this spread is a bit of an overreaction to Romo's injury.  Cowboys to cover, but Eagles to the playoffs.

BIG BET

Houston Texans +7 at Tennessee Titans
Houston is not good this year.  At all.  But, they have incredible talent on both sides of the ball, and the Titans are not blowing anybody out.  So I will take the touchdown, with the possibility that Houston wins outright and costs Mike Munchak his job.  This game is likely to determine whether I finish in the money or not for the season - assuming I have a good week.

Last Four Weeks' Record: 34-30
Year To Date Record:  107-108-6
Last Four Weeks' Big Bet: 1-0
Big Bet Year To Date: 8-5
Last Four Weeks' Winnings (Losses): $250
Year-To-Date Winnings (Losses): ($685)