So, my expected backslide did, in fact, occur. Actually, the pick's weren's so bad (8-8), but the dam big bet got me. Without going back to look at it, I believe that is 3 big bet losses in a row. I need to fix that for sure. In this penultimate regular season week, let's fix that, OK! Interesting football week this week as for most people it is the fantasy football championships. I am not in those either, but my wife is!!! Let's Go Gator Bait!!!
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks...
Tennessee Titans +14 v. Dallas Cowboys
Took a lot of flak for this pick with everybody and their brother not playing for Tennessee - and Josh Dobbs playing - but it turns out ot be a push. Home team on a short week, ya'll.
Detroit Lions +5 1/2 v. Chicago Bears
Too many people out for the Bears, like offensive lineman and Jack Sanborn. The good news - the number 1 pick is in play!!! (And then a trade back to the Colts for the fifth pick, 2 other firsts, a second, and a switch of fifths. While still landing Will Anderson!
Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. New Orleans Saints
Gardner Minshew can put points up on the board. New Orleans will give him some trouble as they are 2nd in passing defense, but, the offense just isn't putting up enough points this year (22nd in the league.)
Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina has won 3 of its last 4 games. Could it be that we all dramatically underestimated Sam Darnold? I don't think so, but Tampa hasn't exactly been world beaters either, so I will take the points and assume this will be a close game.
Denver Broncos +12 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Wholesale changes after a Christmas Day ass-whooping have to account for being able to cover a double-digit spread against a division-rival, right?
New York Giants -5 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
I have not been sold on the Giants all year, but Indianapolis is playing on a short week this week, and look rudderless last week anyway. Probably a good opponent for a team fighting for the playoffs.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 at Houston Texans
Jacksonville is riding a three-game winning streak, all against playoff-competitive teams, and although I don't usually like giving points to a divisional rival at home, Houston's offense is putrid (26th in passing; 30th in rushing; 30th in scoring; 32nd - last - in total offense.)
Arizona Cardinals +6 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
David Blough versus Desmond Ridder - a stunning QB battle. But, the last time we questioned David Blough, he threw the ball around the field. And, in a game with likely little scoring, I will take the points. Plus, the one thing the Falcons do well offensively is run the ball, but Arizona is a competent 12th against the run, so the score should stay close.
Cleveland Browns +2 at Washington Commanders
Deep in my heart, I feel that Carson Wentz will give the Commanders the same type of jolt as Taylor Heniecke first gave them when he started. However, teams are 1-14 this year in the week after playing the San Francisco 49ers, and guess who Washington played last week?
New England Patriots -3 v. Miami Dolphins
The starting carousel is swinging at full speed for the Miami Dolphins, and I am not just talking about quarterback. Key players at basically every position will be out today.
New York Jets -2 at Seattle Seahawks
It appears that Seattle is spent, having lost 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6.
San Francisco 49ers -9 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders
This is a HUGE line on the road, but with the craziness going on in the Raiders with the benching of Derek Carr in favor of Jarret Stidham, who although has some athleticism and talent, will be making his first start against the number total defense, scoring defense and rushing defense in the NFL!!!
Los Angeles Rams +6 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers
I have said this before, but the Chargers are a different team when they have Mike Williams and Keenan Allen on the field, and that is all for the better. But, they are on a short week, so I am taking the points, hoping last week's 51-point burst rejuvenated the Rams enough to keep this close.
Green Bay Packers -3 v. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings will likely know whether Philly won or lost before they take the field today (and assuming a San Fran win already), so they will need this game to stay in the hunt for the one (or 2) seed in the NFC. Problem is, this game is in the 4 p.m. Eastern slot, so the Noon Nightmare cannot emerge. Plus, this Packers team is looking like Rodgers will lead them to a first round exit from the playoffs.
Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Baltimore Ravens
This game should be really close, especially given the 16-14 Baltimore win just 3 weeks ago. In the last 4 weeks the Ravens have scored 17, 3, 16 and 10 points. Any extra points - like the plus 2 in the spread - is welcome in this game.
Cincinnati Bengals +1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati is only one-game behind the Bills in the race for the one-seed in the AFC. And Buffalo, despite winning, has not seemed dominant. Even the Bears stayed with them for 3+ quarters last week. I hate to pay hunches, but the fact that the teams are pretty evenly matched (2nd and 5th offenses, 7th and 10th defenses); means I have to choose somehow.
Big Bet:
New York Giants -5 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
I have not been sold on the Giants all year, but Indianapolis is playing on a short week this week, and look rudderless last week anyway. Probably a good opponent for a team fighting for the playoffs.
Nick Foles' lack of mobility will cause at least one really bad turnover which helps the Giants cover the spread because of a short field. But really, the Colts rushing defense is 20th in the NFL, and the Giants behind Saquon Barkley are 6th in rushing, so that should get it done.
Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 122-109-7
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 7-7-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($245)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($115)
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