Picks of the Week

A wild week 18, with third-string quarterbacks galore.  Some to see what they can do (Sam Howell), some out of necessity (Skylar Thompson), and some just because (every team out of the playoffs).  Coming close to a .500 record for the week secures a winning regular season, that I hope will roll into the playoffs.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

San Francisco 49ers -9 v. Seattle Seahawks

Home team on a short week, but really, probably the best team in the playoffs right now, even with Brock Purdy.  Seattle was a nice story, that ends today.  This game has 31-17 written all over it.

San Francisco 49ers -475 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $475 to win $100)

San Francisco's number 1 ranked total defense and scoring defense is what makes the difference.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Listen, I thought the Chargers win this game initially, except losing Mike Williams hurts their offense, a lot.  Sure, several of the receivers stepped up, but the look, feel and speed of the offense is different with Williams out.  Not sure who wins, but this is close enough for the Jaguars to cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars +115 (Bet $100 to win $115)

Not sold on this as an outright win for Jacksonville, as the defense will need to step up, but they are 12th in scoring defense, and somebody like a Rayshawn Jenkins always seems to make a play when needed.

Buffalo Bills -13 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

This isn't the full Dolphins, given that Tuanigamanualepola Tagavailova is still in the consussion protocol.

Buffalo Bills -900 v. Miami Dolphins (Bet $900 to win $100)

Dolphins have the 24th ranked scoring defense in the NFL going against the second-highest scoring team in the league.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. New York Giants

I feel like both of these teams are fraudulent as Super Bowl contenders, yet they play each other so one has to advance.  They both have one superstar offensive player (Justin Jefferson and Saquon Barkley), but Minnesota has Dalvin Cook as well, and the Giants are 27th in rushing defense.

Minnesota Vikings -155 v. New York Giants (Bet $155 to win $100)

I am not happy about this, but not getting enough on my money (+135) to pick the Giants.  This could be a double loss if the Giants win.

Cincinnati Bengals -8 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

This game just isn't the same without Lamar Jackson.

Cincinnati Bengals -450 v. Baltimore Ravens (Bet $450 to win $100)

Baltimore's defense is 8th overall and 3rd in scoring defense, but 26th against the pass.  Joe Burrow leads the 5th best passing attack in the NFL.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It seems really trendy to bet on Tampa Bay and Tom Brady, who is 7-0 against Dallas in his career.  But, I don't like trendy bets.

Dallas Cowboys -140 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If I think the Cowboys will cover the spread, then I have to think they will win outright, right?  Tampa's lack of a rushing game (last in the league) will not punish Dallas' 22nd ranked rus defense.

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -475 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $475 to win $100)

San Francisco's number 1 ranked total defense and scoring defense is what makes the difference.

Three easy bets this week, San Fran, Cincinnati and Buffalo to win.

Last Week's Record:  7-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  137-123-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($30)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $145