Picks of the Week

  

At one point last wekend, things were looking amazing; 5-5 after the early games, and sitting at 3-1 in the late games, with a team driving for me to be 4-0.  Then, it all fell apart.  1-3 in those games, and boy did that hurt.  Oh well, we are now learning how this season might be progressing, although there are still some really big question marks about some teams.  Let's hope I answer those questions correctly this week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans +8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I hated this pick when I made it, but if you always take the home team on a short week, ultimately you will end up ahead.

Chicago Bears +7 at Cleveland Browns

Will the Bears offense experience a bump with rookie Justin Fields at the helm?  Probably so.  Keeps this game close.

Baltimore Ravens -8 at Detroit Lions

The Lions just don't have enough firepower, and as we saw last week, the Ravens do, even with all of their injuries.  And, Detroit is on a short week having played Monday night.

Atlanta Falcons +3 at New York Giants

When two really bad teams play against each other, I like to take the points.  Tougher decision on this one because the Giants have looked borderline respectable, but I'll still take the points.

New England Patriots -3 v. New Orleans Saints

If I get this one wrong, it is because the Saints are going to bounce between great and awful, so I just have to figure out when the bounce will occur.  My guess is they don't bounce back against a Belichick coached team.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The battle of the two worst offensive lines in the NFL.

Tennessee Titans -5 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

We don't even know which quarterback will start for Indianapolis after Carson Wentz's one-on-one game with Allen Iverson (he broke both ankles.)  But we do know that Tennessee bounced back bigly last week.  They continue to roll.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. Washongton Football Team

Bills are out to prove that week 1 was a delusion.  Played great last week, and although this week should be tougher, still win by 10-14.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Take the over first and foremost.  Secondly, Kansas City NEEDS this win after last weeks unexpected loss to Baltimore.

Arizona Cardinals -7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

I am inventing a new caveat to the bet against the west coast team travelling east and playing the early game; the addition is "unless they are playing a team with a rookie quarterback AND a rookie coach.  Oh, wait, Arizona is in the mountain time zone.  Then, easy pick.

New York Jets +10 1/2 at Denver Broncos

The Jets are not good,, but they do have some actual NFL players.  So, I'll take the 10 1/2.  Denver is my pick in my suicide pool, though.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

No Tuaniganinualepola this week, and although Jackby Brissett is an accomplished NFL backup, he doesn't move the needle offensively.  I think the Raiders win convincingly.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at Minnesota Vikings

Seattle is still trying to figure out how they lost last week.

Los Angeles Rams +1 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Easily the best game of the week.  A potentially great offense getting points at home.  Brady always rises to the occasion for big games, but for him, this isn't necessarily a big game.

Green Bay Packers +3 at San Francisco 49ers

Green Bay on a short week, but at least they get the Sunday night game.  I feel that week 2 Green Bay is way more indicative of what they Packers can do versus Week 1 Green Bay.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I still don't think we know exactly what either of these teams are going to be, but I feel that if Dallas can run a little bit, they should be able to win this game.

  

Big Bet

Las Vegas Raiders -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

No Tuaniganinualepola this week, and although Jackby Brissett is an accomplished NFL backup, he doesn't move the needle offensively.  I think the Raiders win convincingly.

Another reason to type Tuanigamanualepola!  Injured Dolphins team not going to cover against a Raiders team that is playing as good as anyone.

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  15-17

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($455) 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($700)

Picks of the Week

 

Last week could have gone horribly.  As it was, with the vig and losing the big bet put me in a hole to start, but winning the last 4 games of the weekend brought me up to .500.  So there is that.  Let's see if I learned anything.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Washington Football Team -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

So again I took the home team on Thursday, this time because it was a short week.  Lost this one, but this theory will win out more Thursdays than it loses.

Chicago Bears -1 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bears showed some life in the first half on the road against the Rams.  This one is at home and the Bengals are not the Rams.

Denver Broncos -6 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Teddy Two Gloves versus Trevor Lawrence.  Too bad for the Jaguars that everyone else has to play as well.  And thank you to the Broncos for being in the Mountain Time Zone and not the Pacific, otherwise I would be forced to pick Jacksonville.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

The Bills are better, but they did not look good last week.  So, they either learned their lesson that they have to actually play every game, or, they may have regressed.  Although probably the former, I'll take points on the home team in a divisional rivalry.

Houston Texans +13 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

So Houston may not be the worst team in the league.  Cleveland wins this game, probably easily, but 13 is A LOT of points this early in the season when we haven't quite figured everything out yet.  Cleveland is my pick in my suicide pool, which lost a good number of people week 1 who selected Buffalo and Green Bay.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. San Francisco 49ers

Pacific coast team travelling east and playing in the early game.  Plus, Philly looked better than I thought last week - although San Fran was cruising for a while too!

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

I am here for the Jameis Winston era in New Orleans, so long as Sean Payton keeps allowing him to fling it.  But, as in the Miami-Buffalo game, I'll take home points this early in the season in an intra-divisional game.

Indianapolis Colts +4 v. Los Angeles Rams

I think the Rams make the Super Bowl this year, but traveling east to play in the early game, the week after playing the Sunday Night game.  They could still win, but don't cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Pittsburgh showed us their defense is still a traditional Steelers defense.  And the Raiders won a hard-fought overtime game against the Ravens last week.  So, not only is LV traveling east to play early, they are on a short week after playing an entire additional quarter on Monday night.  I'll take Pittsburgh.

New York Jets +5 1/2 v. New England Patriots

With two rookie QBs, the smart play is to bet on Belichick.  But, I think this game will be close, so I'll take points at home.

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Arizona was easily the most impressive team in Week 1.

Atlanta Falcons -12 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Atlanta is bad.  Tampa should be good.  But that is a lot of points to be giving up.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This is possibly an overreaction to week 1's game against the Buccaneers.

Seattle Seahawks -6 v. Tennessee Titans

Seattle are serious contenders, and at home.  Tennessee was worked by Arizona last week, how do they rebound?  I believe with a second loss in a a row.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Short, exhausting week for the Ravens after their Monday Night overtime loss to the Raiders.  Their reward?  Trying to keep up with the Chiefs' offense.

Green Bay Packers -11 v. Detroit Lions

Aaron Rodgers looked horrible last week.  No better bounce back than the Lions, who looked spry against the 49ers.  Spry doesn't mean they are good.

  

Big Bet

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Arizona was easily the most impressive team in Week 1.

Is it too early to start the Kyler Murray for MVP chants?  Of course it is, but 21-32 for 289 and 4 TDs, plus a rushing TD at Tennessee was a great start.

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  8-8

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($245) 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($245)

Picks of the Week

We are back to the beginning of a new football season!!!  Hooray!!!  And, if yesterday's college games are any indication, we don't know anything.  That is often true about the first few weeks of any season, as we really don't know how new players - rookies or otherwise - will fare on their new teams, how new coaches and coaching staffs will gel with their players, or how critical players losses will affect an established team.  The good thing is, neither do the actuaries that set the betting lines.  Key point - the first 3 weeks or so are the best time to take advantage.  Let's hope we can do that!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

So, my undefeated season will bnot come to fruition.  I guess the rumors of Dak's shoulder still causing him problems was overrated.  Still, I had Tampa Bay in my survivor pool, so I'll take it.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles 

Both teams project to be dismal this year.  I initially thought about taking the points, but I will settle for the home team and hope they actually use their running back, Mike Davis.

Carolina Panthers -3 1/2 v. New York Jets

Rookie quarterback starting game 1 versus the man he replaced.  Panthers have more weapons.

Washington Football Team -2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

In Fitzy I trust.  But seriously, the reason is the old adage, never bet on the west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  Historically the home east coast team in this situation covers 2/3 of the time.  Also, Washington has the best defensive line in the league.

Detroit Lions +8 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

I hate this pick.  I hate it, I hate it, I hate.  But, as I stated in the preamble, we don't know anything yet about this season, so I will stick the the betting rule that led me to select Washington earlier.

Buffalo Bills -6 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh has 5 new offensive lineman.  Bills rookie Gregory Rousseau could have 2 or 3 sacks this game.  Plus, Pittsburgh couldn't get pressure on Buffalo last year, and they are essentially the same team.

Seattle Seahawks -3 at Indianapolis Colts

Seattle is the one west coast team that thrives covering the spread when playing the early game on the east coast (and yes, Indianapolis is in the eastern time zone).  I don't like giving up the points here, but the Colts don't really know how to play with Carson Wentz yet, either.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Imagine what Joe Burrow could have done if Cincinnati had drafted him Penei Sewell to protect him.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Houston Texans

Tyrod Taylor often surprises, but this Texans team is hideous.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

J.J. Watt is not the type of defensive upgrade that would lead a team to stopping Derrick Henry.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Nobody knows what is going to happen here with these 2 Alabama quarterbacks, so I will take the points.

Denver Broncos -3 at New York Giants

I just love rooting for Teddy Two Gloves.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at New Orleans

Has any player ever gone on a revenge tour against their own team?  If not, well now here it is.  Aaron Rodgers' Revenge Tour against the Green Bay Packers.  Starts today.

Cleveland Browns +5 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City's revamped offensive line versus Cleveland's rushers.  I'll take the points, even though I think Kansas City wins.

Los Angeles Rams -8 v. Chicago Bears

With Justin Fields in the game, I might take 8.  Not with Andy Dalton.  Let's see if Matt Stafford likes all of his shiny new toys on offense.

Las Vegas Raiders +4 v. Baltomore Ravens

Getting points at home in a big prime time game?  Yes, please.  Especially since we don't exactly know how the Ravens running back situation is going to play out, especially since Latavious Murray likely isn't in game shape yet.

  

Big Bet

Buffalo Bills -6 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh has 5 new offensive lineman.  Bills rookie Gregory Rousseau could have 2 or 3 sacks this game.  Plus, Pittsburgh couldn't get pressure on Buffalo last year, and they are essentially the same team.

Josh Allen's campaign to finish third in the MVP voting begins today.

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0
Year-to-Date Record:  0-0

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):