Picks of the Week

     

So, I don't care about jinxing myself at this point, as a losing week is inevitable, but last week was my fifth consecutive winning week.  Sure, the picks were at .500, but with the big bet, I finished on the plus side again.  As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New York Giants +5 at Philadelphia Eagles

This goes against the gambling rules, but Zach Ertz was hurt, as was Miles Sanders, and the offensive line is horrible.  I know the Giants are not good, but they are not 5 points worse than Philadelphia.

Tennessee Titans -1 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I have no idea what to do here, so I am just taking the home team since it is virtually a pick 'em.

Atlanta Falcons -2 v. Detroit Lions

Both teams are horrible on defense, but the Falcons do have the 4th best total offense, and they don't look as bad as Detroit does.

Cleveland Browns -3 at Cincinnati Bengals

Road intra-divisional favorites are always a tough bet, but Cincinnati, despite a promising future with Joe Burrow, still lack a lot of talent, especially on the defense.  Cincinnati's 27th ranked rush defense now has to compete with Cleveland's top-ranked rushing offense, which hasn't missed a beat despite losing starter Nick Chubb to injury.

Carolina Panthers +7 at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans just hasn't looked entirely right this season, and now they will be without starting wide receivers Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.  Alvin Kamara has a ton of talent, but cannot do absolutely everything.

New York Jets +10 v. Buffalo Bills

I hate doing this, but I feel compelled to do so since Buffalo is on a short week.  Perhaps the Jets score a late touchdown to lose, but cover 30-21.

Washington Football Team +1 v. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is completely discombobulated without Dak Prescott.  The offense is in such trouble, that even Zeke Elliott fumbled the ball twice last week.  Plus, they are on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Houston played very well is last week's overtime loss to the Titans, but the Packers are on a whole different level.  Green Bay will be angry coming off a loss, and the 26th ranked scoring defense is the perfect opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and company to rebound.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Even if the Raiders are allowed to start the 4 offensive lineman that were just activated from the Covid Reserve list (pending negative tests today), none of them have practiced all week.  Not good when facing the defense ranked 2nd in total defense, 6th in passing defense and 1st in rushing defense.

New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is literally just a gut reaction.  Probably because I think Belichick will bounce back after last week's atrocity that was an 18-12 home loss to Denver.

Denver Broncos + 7 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Only because Kansas City is on a short week, and perhaps because Denver has some confidence after winning at New England last week.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Probably a good game to miss.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle needs to shore up the defense if they want to make a serious Super Bowl run, but for now, the 4th ranked passing offense and 5th overall offense, should be enough to remaing undefeated, and cover the spread against a Cardinals team that played on Monday night.

Chicago Bears +6 at Los Angeles Rams

The Chicago Bears will likely lose this game as with James Daniels injured, Aaron Donald will likely have 142 sacks.  But, the Bears defense will likely keep this game close.

 

Bye Week - Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Houston played very well is last week's overtime loss to the Titans, but the Packers are on a whole different level.  Green Bay will be angry coming off a loss, and the 26th ranked scoring defense is the perfect opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and company to rebound.

I hate taking a road favorite as my Big Bet, but the 3 lines that jumped off the board at me all were road favorites (which scares me in general).  I will select this one because I believe in Aaron Rodgers more than Baker Mayfield, and because Seattle is in a Sunday night prime-time game (where weird things often happen).

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  54-35-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $80
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $2450

Picks of the Week

    

So, I don't want to jinx myself, but four winning weeks in a row, and last week was PHENOMENAL!!! I mean it, so I will say it again, PHENOMENAL!!!  That means I have to come back to the mean at some point, right?  I hope I can keep this up.  I know a couple of teams have closed their training sites due to Covid, but at this point no games have been canceled/postponed.  Since I am doing this on Saturday, any Sunday cancellations will not be scored.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears + 1 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

How are the Bears not favored?  Carolina has the 25th ranked rushing defense, so David Montgomery should hasve a field day.

Cincinnati Bengals +8 at  Indianapolis Colts

If this was 6 1/2, I would take the Colts.  They win by a touchdown.  A late TD from Joe Burrow makes the final close (backdoor cover).

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Detroit Lions

In a battle of two bad teams, I will take points for the home team.

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Neither team is performnig up to expectations, but Atlanta has the 31st ranked total defense and Minnesota - hehind Dalvin Cook - has the the best rushing offense.

New York Giants -3 v. Washington Football Team

God, I still love typing "Football Team" instead of "Racists".  Giants win this one because despite being horrible, they have the 8th best total offense and 10th best passing offense.  

Baltimore Ravens -9 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Not only are the Eagles horrible, but the Ravens have the 3rd best rusing offense and the 5th best rushing defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Yes the Browns are 4-1, but the Steelers have the 6th best scoring defense, 4th best passing defense, 3rd best total defense, and 2nd best rusing defense.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

At some point people are going to realize tht last year for Tennessee wasn't a fluke, and that Ryan Tannehill can ball.  I am leery of this one because of the short week.

Denver Broncos +9 at New England Patriots

This spread is just too high, especially given that Drew Lock is supposed to play this week.

Miami Dolphins -9 v. New York Jets

The Jets are horrible, but are they 9 points worse than the 2-3 Dolphins?  Yes, they are.

Green Bay Packers -1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I have said it about 4 times already this year, Aaron Rodgers is on a mission.

Los Angeles Rams -3 at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco seems a bit lost right now, and the Rams are both 4th in total offense and total defense.

Buffalo Bills +4 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City seems a bit off the last few weeks, and Buffalo getting points? .. .I'll take them.

Arizona Cardinals -1 at Dallas Cowboys

Tough to guess how Dallas will bounce back from Dak Prescott's injury.  My guess is they will not.

Bye Week - Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks

Big Bet

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Yes the Browns are 4-1, but the Steelers have the 6th best scoring defense, 4th best passing defense, 3rd best total defense, and 2nd best rusing defense.

I wanted to take Tennesee, but they are on a short week, so I will take Pittsburgh's defense.

Last Week's Record:  12-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  47-28-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $1130
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $2370

Picks of the Week

   

So I say this not to jinx myself, but just to post information - three winning weeks in a row.  I hope I can keep this up.  No time for a lot of analysis this week, as I am travelling and pressed for time, but I do want to get these out.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears + 3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Short week, home team!

Carolina Panthers +1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Short week for Atlanta.

Baltimore Ravens -12 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

I know it looks like too many points, but Cincinnati cannot stop anybody.

Houston Texans -6 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars have been disappointing versus the spread since week 2.

Las Vegas Raiders +12 at Kansas City Chiefs

I cannot give up 12 points in two games this week, and Chiefs are on a short week.

Arizona Cardinals -7 at New York Jets

I hate going against the betting rules, but Arizona isn't really west coast.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles are bad.

Washington Football Team +7 v. Los Angelse Rams

I cannot pick two west coast going east, and perhaps Kyle Allen can spark something in Washington.

Miami Dolphins +8 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Garropolo might be back, but could be rusty.  San Fran missing too much talent.  Win by 7.

Cleveland Browns +1 v. Indianapolis Colts

Basically a pick 'em on the board, and in my head.  I could have gone either way.

New York Giants +8 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Both awful teams, and no the Cowboys have lost one of their best players - Tyron Smith - for the season.

Seattle Seahawks -7 v. Minnesota Vikings

Seattle is just playing too well.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (No Line)

If this is single digits I am taking New England.  If not, I will check back and choose when a line is up.

Los Angeles Chargers +8 1/2 at New Orlenas Saints

This is a really big spread for how poorly New Orleans has looked this year.

Bye Week - Detroit Lions/Green Bay Packers

Big Bet

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles are bad.

Because Pittsburgh is coming off its Covid-induced bye (because of Tennessee, not Pittsburgh) and because of its defense (1st in rushing defense, 2nd in total defense, 5th in scoring defense, and 6th in passing defense).

Last Week's Record:  8-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  35-26-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $290
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1240

Picks of the Week

   

Two winning weeks in a row - I will take that for sure.  Especially as we enter the first really precarious weekend of the NFL season.  We have one Covid cancellation (Tennessee-Pittsburgh); one Covid postponement until Monday or Tuesday (New England-Kansas City); one big star testing positive (Cam Newton) and one false positive (with the New Orleans Saints).  I will be predicting the KC-NE game, but that bet will not count if not played by Tuesday (this week).  Tennessee-Pittsburgh has already been re-scheduled for later in the season, but I will mention it - but not pick it this week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos +1 at New York Jets

I don't care that it is a short week, I will take points from the Jets.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans PPD (Covid-19)

Technically this is being changed into a "Bye Week", but the Titans have had 18 players and staff test positive for Covid-19.  We don't yet know which players, but that will affect them next week against Buffalo.

New Orleans Saints -3 at Detroit Lions

We had a scare with the fullback, who was sitting on the team plane next to Alvin Kamara, tested positive for Covid-19, but the follow-up test confirmed the first positive was a false positive - therefore a negative.  Anyway, New Orleans is 1-2, and more importantly just hasn't looked like it should, especially offensively without Michael Thomas.  That should change today with the Setroie Lions being 28th in total defense and 30th in rushing defense (and 26th in scoring defense).

Carolina Panthers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals

I really, really want to take the Cardinals.  But, the gambling rules say take the home team when the visiting team is from the west coast and travels east for the early game.  Especially when the visiting west coast team is a favorite.  I will ultimately - and begrudgingly - take Carolina and hope Arizona wins 23-21.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

I hate, hate this game.  Not from a gambling stanpoint but from a football fan standpoint.  This game is between two not very good teams - but both very fun to watch.  I take it back, I love this game.  Minshew and Burrow are going to be throwing the ball all over the place.  For that, I will just take the points, and because Jacksonville is inconsistent and they were horrible last week.

Dallas Cowboys -4 v. Cleveland Browns

The Cowboys are remarkably 21st in rushing offense, mostly because they are 1st in passing offense (and total offense).  That is mostly because they were beding to the Rams and Seattle in the games they have lost and were way behind in Atlanta and came back to win.  They should not have the same problem against Cleveland and can comfortably rush the ball from ahead.

Minnesota Vikings +3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Houston's paltry offense (28th overall; 31st rushing offense; 29th scoring offense) versus Minnesota's anemic defense (30th in total defense and passing defense; 26th in rushing defense; 31st in scoring defense).  But, Minnesota does have the 8th best rushing offense and Houston has the league's worst rushing defense allowing 188.3 per game.

Miami Dolphins +5 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

You should all be able to recite the "west coast team traveling east and playing the early game" mantra.  However, the one team immune to that is Seattle, who have managed to win, and cover, regularly on the east coast.  Then why don't you just pick them Pepe?  Because this line seems weird.  It seems like a Ryan Fitzpatrick touchdown pass late, late in the game to lose 31-27.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This number is just too high.  Yes I know LA is a west coast team and this is a 1:00 game.  The number is too much.  Should have been about 4 or 4 1/2.  Chargers have the 6th total offense (6th in rushing and 8th in passing) as well as the 8th total defense (11th in passing and 11th in defense; 4th in scoring defense).  Tampa just shouldn't be able to score enough more than Los Angeles to cover this number.

Washington Football Team +14 v. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are much better than the Football Team, and they are probably angry and embarrassed at their performance last week against Kansas City, but they are on a short week and on the road (albeit not very far), so to give up two touchdowns is A LOT.  Baltimore wins, but maybe 34-24.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Indianapolis Colts

Let's be honest, this is a crapshoot because we don't know how the Bears' offense is going to react to Nick Foles being under center for the entire game.  Also, Tarik Cohen out for the year on a cheap shot (he was hit in the leg while fair catching a punt).  I think (hope) they rally around Foles.  They will have to do just that going against the #1 defense in the NFL as of right now (1st in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, 1st in passing defense, 3rd in 3rd down conversion defense and 4th in rushing defense).  Bears keep it close, even if they fall for their first loss of the season.  Please note, this game was moved from the 1:00 time slot to 4:25 due to the postponement of the New England Kansas City game.

Los Angeles Rams -13 v. New York Giants

I do not know why I am so willing to give 13 here, but not 14 in the Baltimore game.  It must be because the Rams are home with a prolific offense (3rd in total offense and rushing offense, 6th in passing offense, 7th in scoring offense).  In contrast, the GIants have the absolute worst offense in the NFL (25th in passing defense, dead last in total defense, rushing defense and scoring defense).

Buffalo Bills -3 at Las Vegas Raiders

This is a classic strength versus weakness battle.  Buffalo has the offense (4th in total offense, 3rd in scoring offense, 2nd in passing offense) whereas Las Vegas has problems stopping anybody (22nd in passing defense, 25th in scoring defense, 27th in total defense, 28th in rushing defense).  Bills get to 4-0 and cover doing it.

Philadelphis Eagles +7 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco still wins this game, as they are very comfortable with Nick Mullens behind center.  But, their injuries have to start catching up to them at some point, right?  Even in Philadelphia doesn't win, they have to start playing better at some point also.  The Eagles have offensive line problems, but the entire starting defensive line for the 49ers is injured.  San Francisco may win, but don't cover.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Atlanta Falcons

I have said it before and I will say it again.  This is about the Aaron Rodgers internalized revenge against the Packers for having the audacity to use a high round draft pick to take a quarterback to possibly replace me instead of giving me any more weapons tour.  A little long-winded, sure, but apropos.

Kansas City Cheifs No Line v. New England Patriots

Right now they are going to play Tuesday, but nobody knows for certain, and no line has been set.  I will make a pick when it is, but it is likely going to be Kansas City anyway, because Brian Hoyer is starting at QB for New England.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Atlanta Falcons

I have said it before and I will say it again.  This is about the Aaron Rodgers internalized revenge against the Packers for having the audacity to use a high round draft pick to take a quarterback to possibly replace me instead of giving me any more weapons tour.  A little long-winded, sure, but apropos.

The spread is a little high for me for a big bet, but I get Aaron Rodgers on an MVP-type roll (and Aaron Jones also), and at home in a big prime time game.  Plus, it worked last week for me!

The other game I gave serious consideration to choosing for this slot was Dallas -4 v. Cleveland, but I trust Aaron Rodgers more.

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  27-20-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $280
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $950