Picks of the Week

  

My first huge week of the year.  I usually have 2 or 3 of those, to counteract 3 or 4 really bad weeks, with the rest all within a game or so either way.  So, I will take the big week when all 16 teams are playing (no byes), as that makes the winning just so sweet (and gives me a cushion for the inevitable poor showing).

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars - 3 v. Miami Dolphins

I took the home team on a short week, and no, I am not ashamed.  I will just take the "L".

Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons

Everything about this game tells me to take the Falcons.  Their offense is humming despite being 0-2; whereas the Bears have squeaked by Detroit and the New York Giants to be 2-0.  But, the Falcons already suspect defense (31st in total defense, 31st in pass defense, 32nd in scoring defense) lost first round pick and starting corner A. J. Terrell for the game due to a positive Covid-19 test.  At least the game didn't get canceled.

Buffalo Bills -2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I actually think the Rams are the better team, and their offense is 3rd in rushing AND 9th in passing (5th overall).  But, I try not to overthink things and the Rams are a west coast team travelling west and playing in the early game, which I almost always try to bet against.  It is easier to do when Buffalo has the 3rd best total offense and the 5th best total defense.

Cleveland Browns -7 v. Washington Football Team

I have no idea what to think of the Browns.  Seven points seems really high so I should take Washington, but sometimes when that bet looks just too easy, go the other way, especially when Washington has the 31st ranked offense in the league.

Tennessee Titans -3 at Minnesota Vikings

Say what you will about the Vikings, but they are consistent.  They rank 30th in total offese AND total defense.

New England Patriots -6 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Two things at play here:  (1) A west coast team travelling east for the early game; and (2) The Raiders are on a short week having played on Monday night.  That, and this Belichick coached team is remarkably balanced, ranking 8th in passing offense and 9th in rushing offense.

New York Giants +3 v. San Francisco 49ers

Nobody knows what we will be getting from this 49ers team, having lost their entire defensive line and their quarterback last week.  Yes Saquon Barkley is out for the Giants, but they are playing at home and they spread the ball out well against the Bears last week.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow has played remarkably well, and has a much higher passer rating than Carson Wentz.  But, he doesn't get to play against his own defense like Wentz does today.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 v. Houston Texans

Stop me if any of this surprises you.  Pittsburgh has the best rush defense, the 7th best pass defense, the 2nd best total defense and 6th best scoring defense.  Watson, lost his best receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

New York Jets +11 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Listen, I know the Jets stink.  Badly.  But 11 1/2 is a big spread consider Indaianapolis' offense is 31st in third down conversions (gotta keep the ball to score).  That being said, it will be hard for the Jets to move the ball against the Colts.  Still, give me that many points and I'll say 28-17 Indy.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Mike Davis is an adequate replacement for an injured Christian McCaffrey, but nobody in this league is McCaffrey.  At least Teddy Bridgewater did't receive a punctured lung from his own training staff.

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

The Lions were steamrolled by Green Bay after DeAndre Swift's heart-breaking, game-ending drop against the Bears in week 1.  Their misery continues against a good-looking Cardinals team that - since they play in the NFC West - needs to win as many of these non-divisional games as possible.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 at Denver Broncos

Because you can't have enough road favorites.  (That is sarcasm, but besides this is only number 2 of those this week).

Seattle Seahawks -5 v. Dallas Cowboys

Seattle is GOOD, offensively.  Their defense is great against the run (2nd in the league), but paltry elsewhere (last in passing defense and total defense, 20th in scoring defense).  So, if Ezekial Elliott can establish any bit of a running game, the could have a chance.  But, they would still have to stop the Seahawks, with the 25th ranked total and scoring defense.  Not going to happen.

Green Bay Packers +3 at New Orleans Saints

Aaron Rodgers is on fire; Drew Brees is not.  Green bay has the best total offense, rushing offense and scoring offens in the NFL (and 4th in passing), with the 10th best total defense.  New Orleans has been struggling on offense and are again without record-setting receiver Michael Thomas.

Kansas City Chiefs +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Yes Baltimore's defense is amazing so far.  But, Mahomes and his weapons can score against anyone.  And I get points?  Yes please!!!

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers +3 at New Orleans Saints

Aaron Rodgers is on fire; Drew Brees is not.  Green bay has the best total offense, rushing offense and scoring offens in the NFL (and 4th in passing), with the 10th best total defense.  New Orleans has been struggling on offense and are again without record-setting receiver Michael Thomas.

Although there were a couple of easy-looking bets on the board, I feel that Aaron Rodgers is on a mission to prove to the Packers - and the world - that he was not ready for them to draft a quarterback to "replace" him.

Last Week's Record: 11-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  18-13-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $700
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $670

Picks of the Week

 

With no preseason, and only sporadic reports from various training camps, I expected disaster in week 1, and although I finished down, it was virtually a .500 week.  Now, I know it is easy to overexaggerate week's 1 performances, but with a bit more of knowledge than this time last week, I am excited about entering this week's picks.  Of course, I wrote this before looking at the points spreads.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Cleveland Browns
Generally I try to take the home team on the Thursday night's game, but for some reason I feel like something was wrong in Cleveland.  Now, the Browns' offense woke up, but I am happy to take the back-door cover thanks to a Joe Burrow, who definitely looks like he belongs in this league.

Chicago Bears - 5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Giants go on the road after playing Monday night is the primary reason why I am taking my beloved Bears.  Plus, Robert Quinn is making his season debut, which should help free up some more space for Khalil Mack on defense. Now, perhaps the Chicago offensive coaching staff can actually put in an up-tempo offensive, perhaps with a bit of no huddle, as that is clearly where Trubisky operates best.

Carolina Panthers + 8 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina acquitted themselves very well asgainst what I think is going to be a very good Raiders team.  Tampa Bay didn't fare very well last week, but a lot of teams are going to look that bad against the Saints (Brady Pick 6 to Janoris Jenkins!!!).  Buccaneers playing without Chris Godwin this week, and with McCaffrey, the Panthers can control the ball so that this score does not get out of control.  I will take the 8 1/2.

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 at Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville surprised the league last week taking down the Colts at home.  This week, they travel to Nashville, where the Titans are coming off a lackluster win against Denver on Monday night.  I am taking the points because of the Titans' short week.

Atlanta Falcons +3 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Dallas did not look very good against Aaron Donald and the Rams, so I look for them to try to break out against the Falcons, especially targeting rooking cornerback A.J. Terrell (who does look promising, but he is a rookie).  Atlanta had 3 separate 100 yard receivers last week.  That might be too much for the Cowboys to have to cover.  I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Aaron Rodgers is on a mission this year and Detroit might not be over last week's loss to the Bears, having given up 3 touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Indianapolis Colts
Yes the Colts have a deep running back room, but the injury to Marlon Mack is going to make a difference.  There is no shame in losing to the Packers for the Vikings, but the Colts lost to a Jaguar team that is supposed to be horrid.

Miami Dolphins +6 v. Buffalo Bills

Miami is not very good, but I feel that Buffalo might catch South Beach Fever AND be overconfident.  This has all the makings of a Ryan Fitzpatrick backdoor cover.

New York Jets +7 v. San Francisco 49ers

I hate, HATE, making this pick.  But if there is one thing that I have learned over time is that you win way more than you lose by following the rules.  Of course, these aren't guarantees, they are about 66% sure, but that is a good percentage.  So, although the 49ers are WAY better than the Jets and could win this one by a ton, I am betting against the west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  UGH!!!  - You know what, nope.  I took the road team on Thursday against the rules, so I am changing this pick to ...

San Francisco 49ers -7 at New York Jets.

Still Ugh!

Los Angeles Rams + 1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I mean, while I am breaking rules, right?  Keep it going.  Seriously, last week the Eagles offensive line looked horrible.  And that is a big, big problem going against the Rams.  Aaron Donald absolutely dominated the Cowboys offensive line, which itself is a magnitude greater than that of the Rams.  I do not think that I am better than the rules, but what the hell.  It is week 2.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Denver Broncos

The Steelers defense should be able to tee-off on the Broncos offense that looked pretty meager against the Titans last week.  The Steelers rushing game behind James Conner and/or Benny Snell, Jr. should be able to control enough of this game to win by 2 touchdowns.  This is a battle of two teams that played Monday night, so both are on a short week.

Arizona Cardinals -7 v. Washington Football Team

Arizona is going to be really, really good this year.  Washington surprised the Eagles (and me) last week, but Arizona is going to have a much better offense than Philadelphia.  I am just happy that I do not have to type "Washington Racists".

Baltimore Ravens -7 at Houston Texans

I don't give points of a touchdown or more lightly (especially in two consecutive games).  And, it is no shame for the Texans to have lost to Kansas City, but what concerns me with Houston is that they absolutely just did not try to throw the ball deep at all in that game, essentially just allowing all of the defensive backs to pinch up closer to the receivers.  That and Baltimore's running game (including Jackson) should be enough to cover this spread.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 at Los Angeles Chargers

Until they prove me worng.

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. New England Patriots
The Seahawks are just better.  And at home.

Las Vegas Raiders +5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

No Michael Thoma, and yes the Raiders are going to be good this year.  Plus, the energy at the first home game in Vegas will be virtually nonexistent thanks to Covid, but the team is probably going to be psyched.

Big Bet

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. New England Patriots
The Seahawks are just better.  And at home.

I really wanted to select Baltimore for the second week in a row, but they are on the road

Last Week's Record: 7-8-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  7-8-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($30) 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($30)

Picks of the Week

HOORAY! The NFL is officially back with its first full slate of games, and nobody is happier than I am.  Since we have no pre-season, little or no fans, and everything is focused on Covid, I feel that I am in a perfect position to start the season with a bang.  Whether that is good or bad, who knows.  We shall see.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans + 9 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
No way Texans win this game, but if they had even tried to throw deep at least 2 or 3 times, this game is under 10.

Chicago Bears + 2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

We don't know if we are getting 2018 Mitchell Trubisky or 2019 Mitchell Trubisky, but this Bears defense, when fully healthy, can really do some things.  Robert Quinn isn't playing yet, but that shouldn't matter against a basically one-dimensional Lions offense that has to figure out what it is doing with its running game.  It may come to fruition this year (Peterson, Swift and Johnson), but it is going to take some time until they come up with a proper rotation. 

Atlanta Falcons +2 v. Seattle Seahawks

So, the fans issue is going to take a way from a lot of teams' home-field advantages.  However, until I see how teams settle in this season, I am still not going to be on a west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  The travel is still the problem.  I think Seattle is going to be really good this year, but going to stick with the tried-and-true betting rules for this one.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Virtually the entire secondary of the Browns is going to miss this game, which means that Jackson will be able to throw, as well as run.  Cleveland's offense should not be as bad as last year, but I don't know if they can stop Baltimore enough to stay in this one.

New York Jets + 6 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
None of us know what we are getting with Sam Darnold in this one, and we do not know if Adam Gase is actually going to use Le'Veon Bell properly, but Darnold looked good at the end of last season and Gase has to know he needs Bell.  Stefon Diggs makes minimal difference in this game.

Carolina Panthers +3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

I can't believe I just typed "Las Vegas Raiders", but that excites me.  Carolina might have some growing pains, but Teddy Bridgewater is a solid, experienced professional.  So, I will bet against a west coast team travelling west and playing in the early game again, especially when giving up points, just like Seattle.

Indianapolis Colts -7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Road intra-divisional favorites are tough to bet, but not when playing Jacksonville after the Jaguars have completely dismantled its teams.  Philip Rivers will be rejuvenated this year, with a running game and a great offensive line led by Quinten Nelson (and yes I just highlighted an offensive lineman).

Green Bay Packers +2 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Is Dalvin Cook ready to go?  Does Aaron Rodgers have something to prove?  Do we see Jordan Love?  Who knows?  Give me the points.

Miami Dolphins +7 at New England Patriots
Bill Belichick blah, blah, blah.  Tom Brady is gone.  But, more importantly, the Patriots' entire defense opted out of this season.  Fitzpatrick slings enough to keep this one close.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 1/2 at Washington Football Team
So, I will not refer to the Washington Football Team as the Washington Racists this year, and those longtime blog readers know I have been doing that for a long time, not just the last year or two.  This is not a bandwagon issue.  Anyway, can Dwayne Haskins make the jump?  Can the Eagles run without Miles Sanders?  Can Carson Wentz continue to lead this team with a flawed roster?  Yes, at least this week.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Cincinnati Bengals

So, the Bengals have the late afternoon session, nullifying the west coast travelling of the Chargers.  The Chargers will miss Philip Rivers, but they have playmakers all over the field.  Joe Burrow has a ton o confidence, and some skill position talent (Joe Mixon and eventually A.J. Green).  But, I look for the Chargers linebackers with Denzell Perry man flanked by Kyzir White and Kenneth Murray to make a lot of plays on Burrow and the Bengals.

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Everyone is going to talk/write about Brady, Fournette, Gronkowski and all of the new players.  It is going to take some time for them to gel.  Not so for Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas.

Arizona Cardinals +7 at San Francisco 49ers

A Super Bowl hangover for the 49ers, I feel.  And, a breakout MVP-caliber season for Kyler Murray with Kenyan Drake and Larry Fitzgerald all being joined by DeAndre Hopkins.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Mike McCarthy has to make a lot of difference over Jason Garrett, right?

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 at New York Giants
TJ Watt, Bud Dupree, Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt should be in Daniel Jones' face all night.  Plus, Ben Roethlisberger is back.

Denver Broncos +3 v. Tennesee Titans

Just a gut feeling that Drew Lock is going to have a really good season, and Melvin Gordon is going to have a lot of running room with Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy opening things up for him.  Tennessee returns Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry,  but will be missing Adoree Jackson and Vic Beasley, whil Von Miller is out for the season for the Broncos.

Big Bet

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Virtually the entire secondary of the Browns is going to miss this game, which means that Jackson will be able to throw, as well as run.  Cleveland's offense should not be as bad as last year, but I don't know if they can stop Baltimore enough to stay in this one.

Baltimore's defense should be improved (really, can that happen?) with the additions of rookie inside linebacker Patrick Queen, drafted in the first round from LSU, and perennial Pro-Bowler and professional defensive menace Calais Campbell coming over from Jacksonville.

Last Week's Record: 0-0
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0
Year-to-Date Record:  0-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): 

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?!!!!

It is that time of the year again, time for the start of college football.  Yes, I know that some games started a couple of weeks ago, and we had a few more last week, but this is the start of most of the conferences that are playing this fall (SEC starts September 26).  And, we have lots and lots of conferences NOT playing.  Since this is what I will consider the start of the college football season, what would the start of college football be without a preseason All-American list? Once again, I am here to give you my preseason All-Americans.  If a conference (or school) is not playing in the fall, or if a player has opted-out, then those players are ineligible to be All-Americans.  And no less than 12 to 15 people are missing from this team because of that.  As usual, there will be more than 11 on each side, to account for the different types of formations (spread, three receiver set, 4-3, 3-4, etc). I explain some of my picks, while others I do not. Why? Because I can.  (Starters in capitals).

Offense

QB - TREVOR LAWRENCE, Clemson; Sam Ehlinger, Texas; D'Eriq King, Miami - Lawrence is a no-brainer, and Ehling has more touchdowns and yards passing than any other current quarterback.  King is the wildcard, but he has amassed a streak of 16 consecutive games with a passing and rushing touchdown, which is an NCAA recod.  How the Houston transfer performs could have a big impact on the ACC this year.

RB - TRAVIS ETIENNE, Clemson; CHUBBA HUBBARD, Oklahoma State; Najee Harris, Alabama; Kenny Gainwell, Memphis - This might be the least heralded running back group in All-American history.  Etienne is dynamic, and Hubbard was the leading rusher in the NCAA last year.  Harris should be ready to jump into the spotlight and Memphis has quietly been churning out skill position players.

WR - DEVONTA SMITH, Alabama; TYLAN WALLACE, Oklahoma State, Tutu Atwell, Louisville - Wallace is a returning member from last year's All-American team.  Smith is absolutely dynamic!

TE - BREVIN JORDAN, Miami; Charlie Kolar, Iowa State - Brevin Jordan is easily the most athletic tight end in the country. 

OL - ALEX LEATHERWOOD, Alabama (T); TREY SMITH, Tennessee (G); CREED HUMPHREY, Oklahoma (C);  DEONTE BROWN, Alabama (G); SAMUEL COSMI, Texas (T); Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame (T); Aaron Banks, Notre Dame (G): Jarrett Patterson, Notre Dame (C) - This unit is decimated by the teams and individuals that opted-out due to Covid, with Oregon's tackle Penei Sewell possibly going as high as number 2 in the draft.  But, we still have lots of talent on this roster, and Notre Dame's offensive line could be something absolutely special this year.

Defense

DE - CHRIS RUMPH II, Duke; QUINCY ROCHE, Miami; Carlons Basham, Jr., Wake Forest - It's am all-ACC position group.  Roche has the most career sacks of any player in college football this season, and the Temple transfer is hoping to do it at a Power 5 school in Miami (and had 1 sack in Miami's first game Thursday night).

DT - MARVIN WILSON, FSU; DARIUS STILLS, West Virginia; Tyler Davis, Clemson, Jaylen Twyman, Pittsburgh - Wilson, along with Lawrence, Etienne and Hubbard (and a couple more to come) was one of the easiest choices for this whole team.  An easy first rounder probably should have left for the NFL after last season.  Stills is the rare defender from a Big 12 school.  Davis had 10 1/2 tackles for losses last season.

LB - DYLAN MOSES (ILB), Alabama; CHAZZ SURRATT (ILB), North Carolina; JEREMIAH OWUSU-KORAMOAH, (OLB), Notre Dame; JABRIL COX (OLB); LSU, Nick Bolton, Missouri - Dylan Moses was in this exact same spot last year, before a torn ACL took him out for the season.  Surratt is a former quarterback that made the transition to linebacker flawlessly.  Cox is a three time national champion at North Dakota State and might be the best athlete on LSU, which is saying something.

CB - PATRICK SURTAIN, II, Alabama; DEREK STINGLEY, JR., LSU; Asante Samuel, Jr., FSU - Player for player, this might be the best position on the team.  Stingley continues LSU's run as DBU.

S - RICHARD LECOUNTE, III, Georgia; ANDRE CISCO; Syracuse; Trevon Moehrig, TCU - Cisco, who bounces back-and-forth between corner and safety, and can make plays all over the field.

Special Teams

K - GABE BRKIC, Oklahoma - Brkic did not miss a kick last year, going 52-52 on exta points, and 17-17 on field goals, including the game-winner in the last regular season game against Baylor, and 3 in the Big XII championship game.

P - MAX DUFFY, Kentucky - The returning Ray Guy winner as the best collegiate punter, his stats last season were astounding; 48.1 yard average; 24 downed inside the 20 yard line; only 11 punts retuned (95 yards - but 42 of those came on one return on a punt fielded by UT-Martin at the 3 yard line.

RETURNER - JAYLEN WADDLE, Alabama; Joshua Youngblood, Kansas State - Waddle had 3 return touchdowns last year, but specializes in punt returns.  Youngblood returned 3 kicks for touchdowns last year - out of 13 returns.