Picks of the Week

A bit of a rebound week, and definitely in the positive.  I might actually be figuring out this year.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Chicago Bears +7 at Detroit Lions
Short weeks have not been kind to the away teams, but Detroit looks prime for a let down.  I am not saying that they won't win, but it should be within a touchdown.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Dallas Cowboys
A second short week road selection cannot be good, but Philadelphia just looks a lot better than Dallas does at this point of the season.

San Francisco 49ers -1 v. Seattle Seahawks
Primarily because I could not pick all three away teams, but also because Seattle seems to be imploding internally, so they should be ripe for a defeat after a big victory against the Cardinals.  In addition, Aldon Smith is looking to make up for lost time with a big, big game.

Baltimore Ravens -6 v. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are a far cry from the team in the early part of the season that defeated the Seahawks, and Baltimore seems to have found a running game.

Houston Texans -6 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
Fitzpatrick is BACK!

Indianapolis Colts -9 1/2 v. Washington Whatever Name They Are Going To Be Called
Washington is in big trouble of imploding among themselves, and they have nowhere near the talent of the Colts.

New York Giants -2 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Odell Beckham, Jr.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Carolina Panthers
The Vikings gave Green Bay a run last week, and the Packers are much better than Carolina.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
The Steelers play to the level of their opponents, and the Saints, at 4-7, are not very good.  That being said the bye week should freshen up Pittsburgh.  New Orleans is desperate though, as they need some wins to procure a playoff spot.

Oakland Raiders +6 1/2 at St. Louis Rams
Oakland is coming off a great win, and might have enough weapons to keep this game close, as they have most of the games they have played this year.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I really do hate picking road favorites, but having seen Tampa Bay struggle against the Bears (despite McCown throwing for 325 yard), means that the Bucs could be in for a long day against a rolling Cincinnati squad.

Arizona Cardinals -2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Despite the convincing loss to the hands of the Seahawks, Arizona is still a quality team - even with Drew Stanton, whereas the Falcons, despite being in first place, are not a very good squad.

New England Patriots +3 at Green Bay Packers
Everything that Bill Belichick has done this year has turned to gold.  If anyone can go into Green Bay to beat the white hot Packers, it is New England.

Denver Broncos -2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas CIty lost to the Raiders last week, and the Broncos are exactly NOT the team they want to see to try to rebound.

Miami Dolphins -7 at New York Jets
Another dreaded road favorite, but the Jets are starting Geno Smith, who is good fro 3 or 4 turnovers.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Browns + 2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
I am not sure how Cleveland keeps winning, but they do.  And Browns might have a corner in Joe Haden that can keep up with Sammy Watkins.  Plus, Josh Gordon is really fresh and should be able to have his way with the Bills secondary.


Last Week: 8-6-1
Year-to-Date: 95-76-3
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 6-6
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $290
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $825

Picks of the Week

I started off on fire last week going 7-2 between Thursday and the early games.  That came screaching to a halt as I finished the weekend 0-5.  Ouch.  Time for a rebound week!

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Oakland Raiders
By now you are all familiar with the axiom "don't bet a road favorite".  That is even more true on Thursday nights, where the travelling team on the short week   seems to be getting housed every week - favorite or not.  Which is why I am going to live on the edge and take the Chiefs.

Atlanta Falcons -3 v. Cleveland Browns
I took the first place Atlanta Falcons last week on a flyer, successfully, so I think that I might just do the same thing this week.  Remember kids, the Falcons currently sit in first place in their division with a whopping 4-6 record.

New York Jets +3 at Buffalo Bills
With the weather in northwest New York just absolutely abominable (See what I did there?!), this game may not be played in Buffalo, or it may not be played Sunday.  The whole thing is up in the air.  Nevertheless, the one thing that we know is that Buffalo has not been able to practice yeti this week with the travel ban throughout the city.  I'll take the Jets to win by a field goal from the Bigfoot of Nick Folk.

Chicago Bears -6 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Hopefully the two awful defeats before Chicago's bye week continues to motivate them to victory just like last week's win over the Vikings.  Although I expect the Chicago fans to give Tampa Bay's coach a whole lotta Love, I expect the Bears to defeat the Buccaneers in what looks like will be absolutely abysmal weather.  I just hope Mike Evans does not have a better game than Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey.

Cincinnati Bengals +1 at Houston Texans
Let's see if the Bengals can figure out a way to keep J.J. Watt out of the end zone  Cincinnati has been playing much better since the shellacking they took at the hands of the New England Patriots. They should outscore Ryan Mallett.

Indianapolis Colts -14 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts feel like they need a big win, and Jacksonville coming to town can provide just that for them.

Green Bay Packers -9 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
No team is playing as well as Green Bay right now.

New England Patriots -7 v. Detroit Lions
Well, except maybe New England.

Philadelphia Eagles -11 v. Tennessee Titans
Zach Mettenberger looks like he can be a real starting quarterback in the NFL, but Tennessee has nowhere near the weapons to compete with the Eagles.

St. Louis Rams +4 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
The Rams shut down Denver's offense, and the Chargers have never been as good offensively as Denver, plus San Diego looks like it peaked way too early this year.

Arizona Cardinals + 6 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Potential turmoil bubbling under the surface of the Seahawks in the name of Marshawn Lynch.  Although Drew Stanton scares me, the Cardinals have been playing too well to be getting almost a full touchdown.

Denver Broncos -7 v. Miami Dolphins
Denver, even without a couple of weapons, will still be looking for revenge from last week's loss.  The Dolphins, who are fighting for a playoff spot, have the unfortunate distinction of being the next team on the schedule.

San Francisco 49ers -9 v. Washington Whatever Their New Name is Going To Be
Washington seems to be imploding.  Although the Aldon Smith situation was a little hairy for a team that wants to contend, Smith seems to have cleared things up, so I will take San Francisco at home.

Dallas Cowboys -3 at New York Giants
What is the over/under on interceptions?

Baltimore Ravens +3 at New Orleans Saints
New Orleans still has some talent, but the are not the fearsome offensive juggernaut of the past few years.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

St. Louis Rams +4 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
The Rams shut down Denver's offense, and the Chargers have never been as good offensively as Denver, plus San Diego looks like it peaked way too early this year.

Last Week: 7-7
Year-to-Date: 87-72-2
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year to Date: 5-6
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: ($235)
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $535

Picks of the Week

Two great weeks in a row.  I hope that I just didn't jinx myself!

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Miami Dolphins -5 v. Buffalo Bills
I am not sure about this game, but I think the Dolphins defense on a short week needs less preparation time than Buffalo's offense or defense.

San Francisco 49ers -4 at New York Giants
By now you all know how I feel about road favorites, but last week the 49ers got back to running the football, with Frank Gore AND Carlos Hyde; making their offense more efficient and keeping both backs happy.  If they continue this, they should win this game against the Giants easily.   I wanted this to be my big bet, but I am also picking against the whole "West coast team traveling to the east coast to play the early game" dilemma.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Washington Whatever Their Name is Going to Be
I don't actually think the  Buccaneers will win this game, but I think that with Mike Evans, they are just a couple of big plays made from keeping this really close.

Atlanta Falcons +1 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Atlanta is horrible defensively, but they can make plays on offense.  Carolina looks complete discombobulated this year, and it starts with Cam Newton, who looks particularly out-of-sorts.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Minnesota Vikings
The Bears have been so awful that it is way too obvious to pick the Vikings.

Houston Texans +3 at Cleveland Browns
This feels like a good old fashioned pitcher's duel, with Jose Cruz hitting a late double off the fence for a game winning RBI, with the Astros winning 3-2.

Seattle Seahawks +1 at Kansas City Chiefs
For Seattle to repeat, they need to start hitting their stride against a good team on the road, and this game just seems tailor made to fit that bill.  Look for lots of runs from Marshawn Lynch and Jamal Charles.

Cincinnati Bengals +7 at New Orleans Saints
Both teams are flawed, but talented.  Cincinnati does have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Saints, so this game should finish with the teams within 3 or 4 points of each other.

San Diego Chargers -10 v. Oakland Raiders
Only because I think the Chargers really needed their bye week, and they should come back recharged and looking to put up some huge offensive numbers against the Raiders.

Detroit Lions +1 at Arizona Cardinals
Once again, I honestly do not know what to make of this game, especially the Cardinals' reaction to Carson Palmer's ACL tear.  Will they rally behind Drew Stanton, who has started a couple of games this year, or will the fact that Palmer is playing considerably better than Stanton has make a big difference.  Plus, Calvin Johnson is back.  I'll take the Lions.

Philadelphia Eagles +6 at Green Bay Packers
The Packers are good, but not as good as they showed against the Bears.  The Eagles still looked downright dangerous on offense with Mark Sanchez.  Both defenses have holes, so I will take the Eagles, plus 6, to lose 78-75.

Indianapolis Colts -3 v. New England Patriots
The Patriots have showed up big in big games this year, but I think this will be Andrew Luck's time to assert himself into the upper upper echelon of quarterbacks (I will not say the word "elite" and start a maelstrom).

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
A dangerous pick because the Steelers play to the level of their opponent, and Mettenberger has looked like he could actually be an NFL quarterback with some time, but I will take the Steelers overwhelming talent to win this game big.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Denver Broncos -9 1/2 at St. Louis Rams
I am not sure where St. Louis is going to score any of their points in this game.

Last Week: 9-4
Year-to-Date: 80-65-2
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year to Date: 5-5
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $295
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $770

Picks of the Week

I am continuing my see-saw journey through this year, as another fantastic week last week followed a sub-par one from two weeks ago.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 v. Cleveland Browns
The Browns have been much better than anyone expected, including yours truly.  They have basically been doing this with smoke-and-mirrors, though.  Cincinnati has played well the last couple of weeks, led by Mohammad Sanu, and Sanu looks to have lots more one-on-one coverage now that A.J. Green is returning.  How's that for burying the lead?

Baltimore Ravens -10 v. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is a train wreck, and although 10 points seems high - almost tempting me to take Tennessee - I am going to resist the temptation.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Another opportunity to break my rule of betting on road favorites, but in this case the spread is so low I just have to ask myself if I think Kansas City can win - which they can.

Detroit Lions -2 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
I cannot imagine that the Lions are going to start as slow this week as they did against Atlanta, and even if they do, Miami's offense is not Atlanta's (and fortunately for the Dolphins, neither is their defense!).

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars (In London)
The Jaguars are no pushover, and with Tony Romo injured, although likely playing, the 6 1/2 points looks tough to cover - except for the fact that the Jaguars have been turning the ball over way too much.  Because of that, I will take the Cowboys, reluctantly.  That being said, have you seen the official hashtags put out by the teams' respective social media people?  Jacksonville's is #JagsinUK, whereas Dallas's is #CowboysUK - Yes, that's right, the team itself said that #CowboySuk.  Ridiculous.

San Francisco 49ers +5 at New Orleans Saints
Another game in which I really want to pick both teams.  The 49ers have been ridiculously disappointing, and are in serious danger of going from one of the pre-season favorites to win the Super Bowl to out-of-the playoffs.  The same could be said of the Saints, except that New Orleans is playing much better as of late.  I still think New Orleans wins this game, but if San Francisco has any fight in them at all, they keep this one close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
Both teams are BAAAADDDD, so I will take the points, as few as they are.  Tampa's defense may be gelling a little bit, so they actually could keep this game close.

Denver Broncos -11 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
See my Steelers/Jets note.  Oakland is better than some of the teams that actually have wins, but they are not Broncos good, especially since Denver will want to make a statement after being decimated by the Patriots last week.

St. Louis Rams +7 at Arizona Cardinals
I get it Vegas, the Cardinals are good.  They should definitely win this game at home.  I just still do not believe that they are a touchdown better than St. Louis, although the Rams are not nearly as dynamic without Brian Quick.

Seattle Seahawks -9 v. New York Giants
So the Seahawks have been nowhere near as dominating this year as expected, but they can still play at home. The Giants have not really proved that they can play with a team like Seattle.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Chicago Bears
Aaron Rodgers always torches Chicago, and he is even better in prime time games.  I do not look at the Bears defense as being the type of team that can beat this Packers team ... unless Shea McClellin makes a play!

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Carolina Panthers
Listen - nobody knows how the Eagles are going to react with Mark Sanchez at the helm.  Nobody.  But I have seen the Panthers play this year, and I just think the Eagles have too much offensive firepower.


BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 at New York Jets
So my tendency to not pick road favorites does not count when the home team is the New York Jets.  Pittsburgh's offense has been phenomenal of late, and the Jets' pass defense has been horrible all year long.  Look for Roethlisberger to come close to 350+ yards in this game.  I am so positive this is going to happen, I am making this game my "Big Bet of the Week"


Last Week: 9-3-1
Year-to-Date: 71-61-2
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year to Date: 5-4
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $405
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $475

Abbreviated Picks of the Week

I am travelling, so no time for analysis, just picks.

New Orleans Saints -3 at Carolina Panthers

Jacksonville Jaguars +10 at Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns -7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Arizona Cardinals -1 at Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles - 2 1/2 at Houston Texans

Kansas City Chiefs -9 v. New York Jets

Miami Dolphins - 2 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers

Minnesota Vikings pick 'em v. Washington Whatever Their New Name is Going to Be

St. Louis Rams + 10 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Denver Broncos -3 at New England Patriots
BIG BET - Go Denver

Oakland Raiders + 13 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Baltimore Ravens pick 'em at Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis Colts -3 at New York Giants

Last Week: 6-9
Year-to-Date: 62-58-1
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year to Date: 5-3
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: ($560)
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $70