Picks of the Week

I am continuing my see-saw journey through this year, as another fantastic week last week followed a sub-par one from two weeks ago.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 v. Cleveland Browns
The Browns have been much better than anyone expected, including yours truly.  They have basically been doing this with smoke-and-mirrors, though.  Cincinnati has played well the last couple of weeks, led by Mohammad Sanu, and Sanu looks to have lots more one-on-one coverage now that A.J. Green is returning.  How's that for burying the lead?

Baltimore Ravens -10 v. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is a train wreck, and although 10 points seems high - almost tempting me to take Tennessee - I am going to resist the temptation.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Another opportunity to break my rule of betting on road favorites, but in this case the spread is so low I just have to ask myself if I think Kansas City can win - which they can.

Detroit Lions -2 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
I cannot imagine that the Lions are going to start as slow this week as they did against Atlanta, and even if they do, Miami's offense is not Atlanta's (and fortunately for the Dolphins, neither is their defense!).

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars (In London)
The Jaguars are no pushover, and with Tony Romo injured, although likely playing, the 6 1/2 points looks tough to cover - except for the fact that the Jaguars have been turning the ball over way too much.  Because of that, I will take the Cowboys, reluctantly.  That being said, have you seen the official hashtags put out by the teams' respective social media people?  Jacksonville's is #JagsinUK, whereas Dallas's is #CowboysUK - Yes, that's right, the team itself said that #CowboySuk.  Ridiculous.

San Francisco 49ers +5 at New Orleans Saints
Another game in which I really want to pick both teams.  The 49ers have been ridiculously disappointing, and are in serious danger of going from one of the pre-season favorites to win the Super Bowl to out-of-the playoffs.  The same could be said of the Saints, except that New Orleans is playing much better as of late.  I still think New Orleans wins this game, but if San Francisco has any fight in them at all, they keep this one close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
Both teams are BAAAADDDD, so I will take the points, as few as they are.  Tampa's defense may be gelling a little bit, so they actually could keep this game close.

Denver Broncos -11 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
See my Steelers/Jets note.  Oakland is better than some of the teams that actually have wins, but they are not Broncos good, especially since Denver will want to make a statement after being decimated by the Patriots last week.

St. Louis Rams +7 at Arizona Cardinals
I get it Vegas, the Cardinals are good.  They should definitely win this game at home.  I just still do not believe that they are a touchdown better than St. Louis, although the Rams are not nearly as dynamic without Brian Quick.

Seattle Seahawks -9 v. New York Giants
So the Seahawks have been nowhere near as dominating this year as expected, but they can still play at home. The Giants have not really proved that they can play with a team like Seattle.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Chicago Bears
Aaron Rodgers always torches Chicago, and he is even better in prime time games.  I do not look at the Bears defense as being the type of team that can beat this Packers team ... unless Shea McClellin makes a play!

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Carolina Panthers
Listen - nobody knows how the Eagles are going to react with Mark Sanchez at the helm.  Nobody.  But I have seen the Panthers play this year, and I just think the Eagles have too much offensive firepower.


BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 at New York Jets
So my tendency to not pick road favorites does not count when the home team is the New York Jets.  Pittsburgh's offense has been phenomenal of late, and the Jets' pass defense has been horrible all year long.  Look for Roethlisberger to come close to 350+ yards in this game.  I am so positive this is going to happen, I am making this game my "Big Bet of the Week"


Last Week: 9-3-1
Year-to-Date: 71-61-2
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year to Date: 5-4
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $405
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $475