So, my quest for a perfect playoffs ended way early, but my disdain for my personal picks ended after watching thelast quarter of the New Orleans - San Francisco game. Fantastic, and just absolutely the reason why we watch playoff football. Well, that and watching the sports bar I was in turn off the Denver-New England game for UFC.
As always, I will make the picks straight up and against the spread.
Baltimore Ravens +7 at New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens
New England's offense is out-of-this world, however, the Pats have to play against an equally talented (and perhaps more so) defense in the Ravens. However, the Ravens can play the run, and the pass, whereas the Patriots can only really pass. In fact, Aaron Hernandez (about whom I commented when he was at UF would be the best pro out of those Gator teams), was the leading running back last week for New England. For those new to the game of football, Hernandez is a TIGHT END!
Since New England cannot really run very well, and if they try, Haloti Ngata will stuff that, leaving Terrell Suggs to rush, Ray Lewis to cover sideline-to-sideline, and the opportunistic secondary to make things difficult for the New England pass catchers.
One caveat, New England can win if Rob Gronkowski gets matched up with Ray Lewis or a safety one-on-one.
That being said, Ray Rice outperforms everyone, and scores enought for the Ravens to wing.
New York Giants +2 at San Francisco 49ers
New York Giants
San Francisco was ridiculously impressive last week, and Alex Smith looked like he not only belongs in the league, but he could be a star. However, that was against New Orleans' defense. The Giants defense, led by the best player in the league this year, Jason Pierre-Paul, is much bigger, faster, stronger and more athletic than the Saints.
Although the 49ers are tough against the run, I expect AHmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to be somewhat productive, with Patrick Willis getting a few licks in.
The caveat, if Frank Gore has a 135 yards rushing, 80 yards receiving and 3 Touchdown kind of game, the 49ers can win.
I don't think they will.
Last Week Straight Up: 2-2
Last Week Against-the-Spread: 2-2
Playoffs Straight Up: 3-5
Last Week Against-the-Spread: 3-5
Sunday, January 22, 2012
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Playoff Picks
Boy was I way off the reservation last week. 11-0 is way gone, both straight-up and against the spread. I need a big comeback week to try to get back to respectability, after a darn good season of picks.
New Orleans Saints -3 at San Francisco
New Orleans Saints
The Saints have consistently been the second best team in the league this year (excepting the Packers). They have a ton of weapons. I know that the 49ers may have the defense to stop almost anybody, but their most experienced playoff performer is David Akers (now watch him hit the winning field goal). Drew Brees is white hot, and I look forward to the Saints-Packers rematch next week.
Denver Broncos +13 1/2 at New England Patriots
New England Patriots
I fully expect the Patriots to move on to next week's AFC Championship game, however, their defense is so bad, that I do not think they will outscore the Broncos by two touchdowns. "But Pepster, they already did". I know, but that was with the aid of three turnovers. If they do not get the turnovers this week, it will be a much closer game. I expect it to be close, but the much maligned defense of the Patriots will make two big plays, one by Vince Wilfork in stuffing a third or fourth and short, and one in the secondary by Patrick Chung. Also going against Denver, the playoff team playing a Saturday game after winning on the previous Sunday is 4-14 since 1990.
Houston Texans + 7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens
Once again, I pick the AFC favorite to win, with the underdog to cover. With both teams playing great defense and running the ball exceptionally well, I fully expect this game to have 2/3 of the possessions of the average game - maybe 8 or 9 a piece. This severely limits the amount of points one team can score, making it harder to cover a touchdown spread.
New York Giants + 7 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay has been the best team all year, and the week of rest helps them get their offensive line healthy (which they will need against the Giants) and an extra week of rest for Greg Jennings. the Giants front 7 will keep the game close, and the Giants offense will score enough against the Packers to make this a good game. I once again have to mention the player who I felt has played the best this season, regardless of position and regardless of statistics; Jason Pierre-Paul.
Playoff Record To Date
Straight Up: 1-3
Against the Spread: 1-3
New Orleans Saints -3 at San Francisco
New Orleans Saints
The Saints have consistently been the second best team in the league this year (excepting the Packers). They have a ton of weapons. I know that the 49ers may have the defense to stop almost anybody, but their most experienced playoff performer is David Akers (now watch him hit the winning field goal). Drew Brees is white hot, and I look forward to the Saints-Packers rematch next week.
Denver Broncos +13 1/2 at New England Patriots
New England Patriots
I fully expect the Patriots to move on to next week's AFC Championship game, however, their defense is so bad, that I do not think they will outscore the Broncos by two touchdowns. "But Pepster, they already did". I know, but that was with the aid of three turnovers. If they do not get the turnovers this week, it will be a much closer game. I expect it to be close, but the much maligned defense of the Patriots will make two big plays, one by Vince Wilfork in stuffing a third or fourth and short, and one in the secondary by Patrick Chung. Also going against Denver, the playoff team playing a Saturday game after winning on the previous Sunday is 4-14 since 1990.
Houston Texans + 7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens
Once again, I pick the AFC favorite to win, with the underdog to cover. With both teams playing great defense and running the ball exceptionally well, I fully expect this game to have 2/3 of the possessions of the average game - maybe 8 or 9 a piece. This severely limits the amount of points one team can score, making it harder to cover a touchdown spread.
New York Giants + 7 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay has been the best team all year, and the week of rest helps them get their offensive line healthy (which they will need against the Giants) and an extra week of rest for Greg Jennings. the Giants front 7 will keep the game close, and the Giants offense will score enough against the Packers to make this a good game. I once again have to mention the player who I felt has played the best this season, regardless of position and regardless of statistics; Jason Pierre-Paul.
Playoff Record To Date
Straight Up: 1-3
Against the Spread: 1-3
Saturday, January 7, 2012
Playoffs Picks
My attempt to go 11-0. I will pick against the spread and straight up.
Cincinnati Bengals +4 at Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals
Injuries finally catch up to Houston, as the Bengals' rookie QB is better than the Texans'.
Detroit Lions +10 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints
Detroit has the firepower to hang with New Orleans, so they should cover, but New Orleans is way too potent at home to lose this shootout.
Atlanta Falcons +3 at New York Giants
Atlanta Falcons
This should be a very close game. The Falcons massive draft day trade to get Julio Jones pays off as they play the horrific Giants secondary. I do want to mention that I think Jason Pierre-Paul has played the best football of anyone I have watched this year - and I watched a lot of football.
Denver Broncos +8 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't think Denver can win this game, but their defense, coupled with the injuries to Mendenhall, Pouncey and Roethlisberger, should keep this game close. I am intetested to see how Brady Quinn might do, if he plays as is being reported.
Cincinnati Bengals +4 at Houston Texans
Cincinnati Bengals
Injuries finally catch up to Houston, as the Bengals' rookie QB is better than the Texans'.
Detroit Lions +10 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
New Orleans Saints
Detroit has the firepower to hang with New Orleans, so they should cover, but New Orleans is way too potent at home to lose this shootout.
Atlanta Falcons +3 at New York Giants
Atlanta Falcons
This should be a very close game. The Falcons massive draft day trade to get Julio Jones pays off as they play the horrific Giants secondary. I do want to mention that I think Jason Pierre-Paul has played the best football of anyone I have watched this year - and I watched a lot of football.
Denver Broncos +8 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't think Denver can win this game, but their defense, coupled with the injuries to Mendenhall, Pouncey and Roethlisberger, should keep this game close. I am intetested to see how Brady Quinn might do, if he plays as is being reported.
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