Picks of the Week

I am travelling, so no time for analysis.  perhaps that will help.

Jacksonville +3 at Tennessee
Cincinnati -3 v. Washington (in London)
Buffalo + 5 1/2 v. New England
Cleveland +2 v. New York Jets
Houston -1 1/2 v. Detroit
Indianapolis + 2 1/2 v. Kansas City
Seattle -1 at New Orleans
Oakland - 1 1/2 at Tampa Bay
Arizona +3 at Carolina
Denver -3 1/2 v. San Diego
Atlanta -3 v. Green Bay
Philadelphia +5 at Dallas
Chicago +4 v. Minnesota (hoping to lose; wanting DeShaun Watson)

Big Bet - Arizona +3 at Carolina

Last Week's Record:  8-7
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  52-55-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($135)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($1890)

Week 7 of the NFL Season, and although last week wasn't a big week, it did end the losing streak (at least as far as winning percentage - damn you big bet).  Can this continue?  It is not just going to continue, it is going to be a springboard to a bigger week.  I can feel it.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Chicago Bears +7 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Yes I lost this one, but my Bears are inching closer to DeShaun Watson.

Los Angeles Rams + 2 1/2 v. New York Giants in London
I am taking the points, given that the Giants are 30th in the league in rushing.  Hard to win a game against Aaron Donald and Company like that.

Cincinnati Bengals -10 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Double digits is hard to give up in an intradivisional game, especially given how hard the Browns are playing right now, but the Bengals are 5th in the league in passing, while Cleveland is 5th from the bottom.  Big game for Brandon LaFell today.

Washington Racists +1 at Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions cannot stop the run recently, and somehow, the Racists have developed a significant running attack with Matt Jones.  Detroit's mediocre offense is even more difficult given that they have about zero running backs with NFL experience.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 v. Oakland Raiders
Oakland's defense is absolutely horrible, and although the Jaguars offense has been struggling, this game could be the remedy that Jacksonville needs.  It is obvious that T.J. Yeldon is not the answer, but Chris Ivory is getting a bit healthier and stronger, and if the Jaguars can keep the time of possession in the favor, and away from Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, the Jaguars will win.  Plus, Oakland is travelling east for an early game.

New Orleans Saints +6 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Saints defense is horrendous, but Kansas City's offense is not good enough to truly take advantage of it.  Drew Brees has a 103.1 passer rating this year, leading the NFL's number 1 ranked passing offense (and number 2 ranked total offense).  Jamal Charles is back, but is he ever really back?

Miami Dolphins +2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This is the one pick that I am not super confident about, but for some reason I think the Dolphins build on last week's win over the Steelers.  Plus, I hate picking road favorites.  Not sure who on the Bills can keep up with Jarvis Landry, although the suspect linebackers on the Dolphins will have a tough time with Tyrod Taylor.  I'll take the points and hope the game is close, 21-20 maybe.

Baltimore Ravens +1 1/2 at New York Jets
Geno Smith.

Philadelphia Eagles Eagles +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings lead the league in scoring defense, only giving up 12.6 points per game, but the Eagles are fourth in scoring, and are 8th in rushing.  If they can keep control of the ball and score early, it would be difficult for the Vikings to come back.  Plus, I love when the home team receives points.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
Other than yardage, Marcus Mariota is playing as well as Andrew Luck.  The Titans defense is strangely good, and the Colts have signed 5 turnstiles as offensive lineman.

Atlanta Falcons -4 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers
Every San Diego game has been close, but Atlanta's offense is completely another level.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
This is exactly the game Jameis Winston needs to break out of a mediocre start to the season.  San Francisco is 27th in total defense, and 31st in scoring defense.  The only redeeming value for the 49ers is that Tampa Bay cannot run the ball.

New England Patriots -7 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, I am taking a road favorite, but I can do that because Landry Jones is starting.  What do you think Bill Belichick will have planned for a quarterback that rarely plays?  Everything.

Seattle Seahawks +1 at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona has recently feasted on the detritus that is the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers, but Seattle, at 4-1, is the polar opposite of the Arizona's recent conquests.  The Seahawks first overall defense, and third scoring defense, is going to make life difficult for Carson Palmer, David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald.

Houston Texans +9 at Denver Broncos
A really interesting Monday Night matchup.  I don't think that Houston is really good enough to beat Denver right now, and both teams defenses are ranked first and second in passing yards allowed, so it will fall on the running backs.  It just seems that the Texans trust Lamar Miller more than the Broncos do CJ Anderson.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Atlanta Falcons -4 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers
Every San Diego game has been close, but Atlanta's offense is completely another level.

Last Week's Record:  8-6-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 44-48-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($25)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($1755)

Picks of the Week

Week 6 of the NFL Season, and the losing streak continues.  Honestly, don't believe anything I write here until this streak comes to an end.  Just don't.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

San Diego Chargers +3 v. Denver Broncos

Not selecting a road favorite on a short week.  Now, I did not think the Chargers were going to win, but I did see a 21-20, or 10-9 type of game.  I always tell whomever I am watching the game with of my selection, and this time it was Sam.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Jacksonville Jaguars.
Once again - this is for the DeShaun Watson sweepstakes.  Given that I have been wrong most the time, at least with this pick, I can live with it.

Buffalo Bills -8 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
At first glance, this number seemed way too high for me, and my instinct was to select San Francisco. But then I remembered that Colin Kaepernick is half of his former playing wait, and the 49ers are travelling east for an early game.  Buffalo, easy.

Detroit Lions -3 v. Los Angeles Rams
Another west coast team travelling east for the early game, only this east coast team has a quarterback with only 4 interceptions in 181 pass attempts (with 10 touchdowns) while Case Keenum has 5 interceptions (compared to only 5 TDs) in 152 pass attempts.  Aaron Donald is likely the best player on the field, and can cause havoc in the middle of the line, but likely not enough to stop a two game skid.

Miami Dolphins +7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
I am actually going to this game, so I am hoping that it is a close game (and that both Le'Veon Bell and Jarvis Landry have huge games).  Pittsburgh wins, but not by more than a touchdown.

Cincinnati Bengals +8 at New England Patriots

Just too big of a line.  The Bengals haven't won in New England since 1986, but need a serious win to avoid falling even further behind the other AFC playoff contenders.  I think Cincinnati could win this game outright, so I will definitely take the points.

Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

So, back when I used to have a good winning percentage on my picks, I would generally follow the rules that I have learned are generally solid, straying occasionally when I thought the spread called for it, like this game.  Jonathan Stewart is back for the Panthers, and besides, the Saints cannot stop anybody.  Two touchdowns each for Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at New York Giants
Believe it or not, the Ravens actually have a better running game than the Giants, so for that reason alone, I select Baltimore (plus the points).

Washington Racists +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Both teams need this game to keep pace in the NFC East.  With the home team getting points, I will take them, and hope that Matt Jones can get just enough yards to let the league's 6th best passing game do what they need to do to beat the Eagles.

Tennessee Titans -7 v. Cleveland Browns
While Cleveland is focusing on the Toronto Blue Jays, the Titans have quietly amassed the second best rushing offense in the league at 148.6 yards per game.  That equals victory in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 at Oakland Raiders
Yes it is a road favorite, but at 1 point, not really.  Andy Reid is 15-2 all time coming off a bye week.

Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay lead's the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 42.8 yards per game and 1.99 yards per rush.  Ezekial Elliott will do better than that, but not enough to win.

Atlanta Falcons + 6 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
These Falcons just seem different from those of the past few years.  They are first in the NFL in points, total yards per game and passing yards per game, while also being seventh in rushing yards per game.  Seattle's defense is first in total yards per game, third in passing yards and 7th in rushing yards.  Clearly something has to give, as Seattle's offense and Atlanta's defense are both rather pedestrian.  I will take the points.

Houston Texans -3 v. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are 1-4 in their last 5 road games, giving up almost 35 points per game.  Hopefully Lamar Miller can score a couple of touchdowns against a defense like that.

New York Jets + 7 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Not a very inviting Monday Night Football game, as a pair of third place teams will be showcased.  Ryan actually played pretty well against Pittsburgh last week, going 25-38 for 255 yards and 1 touchdown, with no interceptions.  Drew Stanton will not be the Jets by more than a touchdown, even though David Johnson is a serious MVP candidate.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

So, back when I used to have a good winning percentage on my picks, I would generally follow the rules that I have learned are generally solid, straying occasionally when I thought the spread called for it, like this game.  Jonathan Stewart is back for the Panthers, and besides, the Saints cannot stop anybody.  Two touchdowns each for Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin.

What the hell.  I just feel that the Saints defense is that bad.  They are last in the league in points allowed, and 31st in the league in yards allowed.

Last Week's Record:  5-9
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 34-42-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($655)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($1730)

Picks of the Week

Week 5 of the NFL Season, and I am coming off two horrendous weeks in a row. Perhaps after a couple of good years in a row this is my comeuppance.  But, I am not giving up.  After a close brush with Hurricane Matthew, the detritus of foliage has been cleared out, selfishness has been washed away, if only for the time being, and hopefully my view of the NFL has been cleansed and I can see clearly now the rain is gone (sorry, couldn't help it).

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Thursday games are always tricky as the games are usually horrible.  So instead of worrying about selecting a road favorite, I just picked the best team.  I told the people I watched the game with I was selecting Arizona, but did not put it on Facebook as I was conserving battery in case I lost power during the Hurricane.  Thankfully, I did not.

Chicago Bears + 4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
So, the Bears let me down by winning last week, but I am still hoping that my pick is the kiss of death so that Chicago will have DeShaun Watson under center next year.  Of course, I think Indianapolis is overrated this year, and that the Bears can keep it close.

Washington Racists +4 at Baltimore Ravens
These two teams give me serious problems, as I still cannot figure out who they are, and how good they are or are not.  Given that neither team is especially explosive offensively, I will take the points.  Especially since the Ravens are less explosive than the Racists.  Whichever team establishes the run game first will win.  Matt Jones did that last week, and will try to solidify his hold as the starting running back with a second great performance.

New England Patriots - 10 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
Road favorite?  Check.  Double digit favorite?  Check.  Wish there was another reason to not pick the Patriots and I would check that off too.  However, Tom Brady returns, and he is going to be angry.  I feel glad I have Julian Edelman on my fantasy team today.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions
Philadelphia is a road favorite, yes, but the Detroit Lions just are not very good.  Their defense gave up 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing to the Chicago Bears last week.

Miami Dolphins -3 v. Tennessee Titans

Two 1-3 teams with limited time to salvage playoff hopes this season.  Not sure why I picked the Dolphins here, as it is just a gut feeling.  I don't trust Ryan Tannehill, but he does have much better receivers than Mariota has to work with.  Jarvis Landry makes a big play that wins this bet.

Houston Texans +6 at Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings only give up 12 1/2 points per game, which means this should be easy to pick the undefeated home squad.  However, the Texans only give up 18.3, so I will take the 6 points. Minnesota is a monster on defense, but are not prolific offensively, ranking 32nd in the league in rushing yards and 31st in total yards.  This might be ripe for an outright upset.

New York Jets +9 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Don't get me wrong, the Steelers will win this game, but they rank 30th in pass defense, and Ryan Fitzpatrick loves to throw the ball (even though they should be more balanced).  The Steelers offense, behind Roethlisberger, Bell and Brown, jump out on the Jets, who have to throw to comeback, and end up losing by a touchdown.

Denver Broncos -3 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Denver's defense is phenomenal, as we all know, but it is especially tough against the pass.  Denver's pass defense ranks second in the league by holding teams to 169.5 yards per game.  Atlanta is a pass-heavy team, gaining 354.2 yards per game.  They won't approach that total in this game, and Denver wins.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys, behind rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekial Elliott (second leading rusher in the league), are one of the NFL's big story.  However, the Bengals are one of the leagues better teams, and they will pass all over the Cowboys defense.  I don't expect this game to be close.

Los Angeles Rams + 2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
Yes the Rams may be doing this with smoke and mirrors, but Case Keenum is 6-2 in his last 8 starts.  And they are getting points against the Bills?  Buffalo is coming off a huge win over the New England Patriots, and might be ripe for a let down this week, as well. I will take the home team getting points.

Oakland Raiders -3 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers
Not really sure who to pick in this divisional rivalry.  I have gone back and forth on reasons to pick both Oakland and San Diego.  I settled on Oakland because, well, because I attended Sebastian Janikowski's wedding and his wife is currently pregnant.  Not a football related reason, but hell, they way things have gone this year, it is as good as any.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. New York Giants
Green Bay will be fresh coming off a bye week, and the Giants are mediocre defending the pass.  I will give the points.

Carolina Panthers -5 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yes, Cam Newton is out for the Panthers.  But, Doug Martin, and likely Charles Sims, the top two running backs are out for Tampa Bay.  Derek Anderson is a veteran that can rely on the games best tight end, Greg Olsen, and a large target in Kelvin Benjamin to be open when he needs them to be.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys, behind rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekial Elliott (second leading rusher in the league), are one of the NFL's big story.  However, the Bengals are one of the leagues better teams, and they will pass all over the Cowboys defense.  I don't expect this game to be close.
Picking a road team and giving points does not seem like the recipe for a guaranteed bet, but I feel this strongly about Cincinnati in this game.  Carlos Dunlap has a big game in getting to Dak Prescott, and forces him into his first interception, by Pacman Jones, our Patron Saint.

Last Week's Record:  6-9
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 29-33-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($555)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($1075)

Picks of the Week

Week 4 of the NFL Season, and boy did I get obliterated in week 3.  If only I had trusted my tried and true gambling rules, I would have at least finished in the black.  I blame my poor performance on the fact that I was preoccupied with the Jose Fernandez news last week.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

I just didn't think the Dolphins could score enough to cover.  I did post this pick on my facebook page before the game, so there is written proof that I am not just picking this game after the fact.

Indianapolis Colts -2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Not a true home game for the Jaguars as this game is being played in London.  Indianapolis has won 6 of the last 8 against Jacksonville, who looks a lot worse than I expected this year.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Detroit Lions
So far I have picked the Bears 3 times, and they have lost - and failed to cover - each of those times.  I am going to keep selecting them as long as they are in the race for the number 1 pick, as Deshaun Watson would look great in Chicago blue.

Atlanta Falcons +3 v. Carolina Panthers
Something seems to be missing from the Panthers this year, and it isn't readily observable.  One would say that means that Carolina is due to break out, which could happen against an abysmal Falcons defense.  But Atlanta is at home, and is first in the NFL in points per game and yards per game.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
I think Baltimore might be the worst 3-0 team in NFL history, but I will pick them and give the points because the Raiders have not lived up to their pre-season hype, and they are a west coast team travelling to the east coast and playing the early game.  Going back to obeying my tried and true gambling rules.

Tennessee Titans +4 1/2 at Houston Texans

Losing J.J. Watt is not enough for me to ordinarily select the Titans in this spot, but, the overwhelming news coverage about the Texans losing J.J. Watt might just be.  That and the fact that the Texans offensive line is allowing just pure abuse of Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller.

New England Patriots -7 v. Buffalo Bills

Does anyone doubt Belichek at this point?  He does wonders with his squad, and Buffalo can be contained on offense. Plus, Brissett and/or Garappolo are going to want to impress in the last game before the Return of the Mack.

New York Jets -1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle seemingly found themselves last week, and Ryan PickSixTrick through 6 interceptions.  Everything about this game screams to take the Seahawks and the (albeit small) points.  However, three gambling rules are at play: (1) Don't pick road favorites; (2) West coast team travelling east and playing the early game; and (3) When it is too obvious, it usually is.

Cleveland Browns + 7 1/2 at Washington Racists

Washington does not look to be playing very well, and they are incredibly one-dimensional with no running game.  Cleveland is playing pretty horrible, but nowhere near as horrible as you would have thought.  They play hard, and if it wasn't for a bad game by a brand new kicker (he arrived the day before last week's game), they would have beaten the Dolphins. I'll take the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Denver Broncos
If I were to choose a road favorite this week, other than Seattle, of course, Denver would have been it.  But no, I am playing things straight up, and letting the rules even things out.  Now, this does not mean I expect Tampa to win this game, but, perhaps a late scrambling touchdown to cover.

Los Angeles Rams + 7 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Yeah, I cannot explain the Los Angeles Rams either, but they are 2-1, seem to be playing pretty good defense, and are getting more than a touchdown.  The Cardinals offense could be prolific, is just pretty good right now, and may not find their groove against L.A.  Spread should be closer to 4 1/2 or 5.

San Diego Chargers -3 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
Words cannot express just how bad this Saints defense is.  San Diego should score at will.  Of course the problem is so can New Orleans.  Just not as easily as they used to be able to do.

San Francisco 49ers + 1 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
I cannot believe I am picking this one, but I feel compelled to follow the rules no matter what.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Pittsburgh played their worst game of the season last week, but they get the return of Le'Veon Bell this week.  That alone will be enough to defeat a tough Kansas City team.

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. New York Giants
A matchup that looks good on paper, but will not look good from the stands or through the television screen.  Picking Minnesota because that team has defied my expectations with and without Bridgewater and Peterson. Must be the defense.

Big Bet Game of the Week

New England Patriots -7 v. Buffalo Bills

Does anyone doubt Belichek at this point?  He does wonders with his squad, and Buffalo can be contained on offense. Plus, Brissett and/or Garappolo are going to want to impress in the last game before the Return of the Mack.

I would rather use my big bet on a smaller spread, but the Patriots have defeated the Bolls 28 of the last 32 times the teams have met since 2000.  That is a pretty solid record.

Last Week's Record:  6-10
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 23-24-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($520)