Picks of the Week

Week 4 of the NFL Season, and boy did I get obliterated in week 3.  If only I had trusted my tried and true gambling rules, I would have at least finished in the black.  I blame my poor performance on the fact that I was preoccupied with the Jose Fernandez news last week.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

I just didn't think the Dolphins could score enough to cover.  I did post this pick on my facebook page before the game, so there is written proof that I am not just picking this game after the fact.

Indianapolis Colts -2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Not a true home game for the Jaguars as this game is being played in London.  Indianapolis has won 6 of the last 8 against Jacksonville, who looks a lot worse than I expected this year.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Detroit Lions
So far I have picked the Bears 3 times, and they have lost - and failed to cover - each of those times.  I am going to keep selecting them as long as they are in the race for the number 1 pick, as Deshaun Watson would look great in Chicago blue.

Atlanta Falcons +3 v. Carolina Panthers
Something seems to be missing from the Panthers this year, and it isn't readily observable.  One would say that means that Carolina is due to break out, which could happen against an abysmal Falcons defense.  But Atlanta is at home, and is first in the NFL in points per game and yards per game.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
I think Baltimore might be the worst 3-0 team in NFL history, but I will pick them and give the points because the Raiders have not lived up to their pre-season hype, and they are a west coast team travelling to the east coast and playing the early game.  Going back to obeying my tried and true gambling rules.

Tennessee Titans +4 1/2 at Houston Texans

Losing J.J. Watt is not enough for me to ordinarily select the Titans in this spot, but, the overwhelming news coverage about the Texans losing J.J. Watt might just be.  That and the fact that the Texans offensive line is allowing just pure abuse of Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller.

New England Patriots -7 v. Buffalo Bills

Does anyone doubt Belichek at this point?  He does wonders with his squad, and Buffalo can be contained on offense. Plus, Brissett and/or Garappolo are going to want to impress in the last game before the Return of the Mack.

New York Jets -1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle seemingly found themselves last week, and Ryan PickSixTrick through 6 interceptions.  Everything about this game screams to take the Seahawks and the (albeit small) points.  However, three gambling rules are at play: (1) Don't pick road favorites; (2) West coast team travelling east and playing the early game; and (3) When it is too obvious, it usually is.

Cleveland Browns + 7 1/2 at Washington Racists

Washington does not look to be playing very well, and they are incredibly one-dimensional with no running game.  Cleveland is playing pretty horrible, but nowhere near as horrible as you would have thought.  They play hard, and if it wasn't for a bad game by a brand new kicker (he arrived the day before last week's game), they would have beaten the Dolphins. I'll take the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Denver Broncos
If I were to choose a road favorite this week, other than Seattle, of course, Denver would have been it.  But no, I am playing things straight up, and letting the rules even things out.  Now, this does not mean I expect Tampa to win this game, but, perhaps a late scrambling touchdown to cover.

Los Angeles Rams + 7 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Yeah, I cannot explain the Los Angeles Rams either, but they are 2-1, seem to be playing pretty good defense, and are getting more than a touchdown.  The Cardinals offense could be prolific, is just pretty good right now, and may not find their groove against L.A.  Spread should be closer to 4 1/2 or 5.

San Diego Chargers -3 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
Words cannot express just how bad this Saints defense is.  San Diego should score at will.  Of course the problem is so can New Orleans.  Just not as easily as they used to be able to do.

San Francisco 49ers + 1 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
I cannot believe I am picking this one, but I feel compelled to follow the rules no matter what.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Pittsburgh played their worst game of the season last week, but they get the return of Le'Veon Bell this week.  That alone will be enough to defeat a tough Kansas City team.

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. New York Giants
A matchup that looks good on paper, but will not look good from the stands or through the television screen.  Picking Minnesota because that team has defied my expectations with and without Bridgewater and Peterson. Must be the defense.

Big Bet Game of the Week

New England Patriots -7 v. Buffalo Bills

Does anyone doubt Belichek at this point?  He does wonders with his squad, and Buffalo can be contained on offense. Plus, Brissett and/or Garappolo are going to want to impress in the last game before the Return of the Mack.

I would rather use my big bet on a smaller spread, but the Patriots have defeated the Bolls 28 of the last 32 times the teams have met since 2000.  That is a pretty solid record.

Last Week's Record:  6-10
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 23-24-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($520)