Picks of the Week

A good bounce back week.  I feel like I need two consecutive weeks like that to really make my season.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

San Francisco 49ers +6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Almost a touchdown home favorite who - albeit struggling - was playing another struggling team on a short week.  Missed that one.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Buffalo Bills (In London)
Jacksonville has been playing really tough this year, and the Bills are starting E.J. Manuel.

Minnesota Vikings -1 1/2 at Detroit Lions
The dreaded road favorite, but it is only 1 1/2 points.  Detroit finally broke into the win column last week, but even then did not look too impressive against the Bears.  Not sure how the Lions can stop Adrian Peterson.

Indianapolis Colts -4 v. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is coming off a win against then red-hot Atlanta, but Atlanta had to travel on a short week, and even then the Saints did not look impressive.  The Colts still look to control their division.  I think they win at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers + 2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
I am not saying that Landry Jones is the answer, but he gives Pittsburgh a dimension that Michael Vick did not, especially given that he does not have to carry the team given the presence of Le'Veon Bell.  Alex Smith does not have that safety blanket due to Jamaal Charles's injury.  Bud Dupree is really starting to come along as a pass rusher.

Miami Dolphins -4 v. Houston Texans
The Dolphins really shot themselves out of a cannon in their first game with Dan Campbell as their head coach.  It seems that the Texans could be a great team to keep up that type of play, and winning streak.

New England Patriots -7 v. New York Jets
The story of this game is "The league's best offense versus the league's best defense"; the proverbial irresistible force versus immovable object.  However, Belichick always gets up for these types of games.

Cleveland Browns +6 at St. Louis Rams
Todd Gurley is a monster, and for that reason I would normally have been inclined to pick the Rams. However, the Browns have played fairly well lately, and I just have a hunch.

Atlanta Falcons -6 at Tennessee Titans
The Falcons have had 10 days of rest since their last game, and because of that rest, they should come out strong against the Titans.  Atlanta's much improved defense should give Mariota/Mettenberger a really tough time, given that the Titans have no real offensive threats.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Washington Racists
A really tough call, but I wonder if DeSean Jackson's head is going to be in this game after his house was robbed and an occupant pistol-whipped in what is believed to be a gang-related incident; the second time one of his residences has been robbed.

San Diego Chargers -3 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
The Chargers should have too much talent to defeat the Raiders.  If the Raiders could get one more playmaker on offense, though, they would have a better shot against the San Diego.  I look for Philip Rivers to make one big play to put them over the top, likely to Antonio Gates.

New York Giants -3 v. Dallas Cowboys
After last week's game against the Eagles showed that the Giants offensive line cannot block anybody, and given that the Cowboys harassed the Patriots, it would be difficult to say I have any confidence in this pick.  However, the Cowboys are really hurting - literally - on offense, and the Giants offense - with some time - can move the ball against Dallas.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Carolina Panthers
I have been on the Carolina bandwagon, particularly Cam Newon and Greg Olsen, since the beginning of the year, however, it is time for them to fall from the list of the unbeatens.  The Eagles offense seems to be clicking, and Chip Kelly has finally figured out how to use DeMarco Murray.  If I think the underdog can win outright, I will definitely take the points.

Arizona Cardinals -8 v. Baltimore Ravens
I do not like this line at all.  But what I do know is that Arizona is the second highest scoring team in the NFL average almost 33 a game.  If Arizona gets up in this game and the Ravens have to throw, then that is where the talented secondary of Arizona - with Patrick Peterson and the Honey Badger - can be opportunistic and make a play that seals the game.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Miami Dolphins -4 v. Houston Texans
The Dolphins really shot themselves out of a cannon in their first game with Dan Campbell as their head coach.  It seems that the Texans could be a great team to keep up that type of play, and winning streak.  I feel strongly enough about this game to make it my Big Bet.  My other choice was Atlanta over Tennessee, but Atlanta was giving more points.

Last Week: 9-5
Year-to-Date: 51-38-2
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 5-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $500
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $1,505