Picks of the Week

Welcome to our Picks of the Week.  For a quick refresher on the procedures behind my picks (for those that are new - this will be new): Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

By the way, I talked myself out of three additional wins last week.  That will not happen this week.

New York Jets +12 1/2 at New England Patriots
Yes this game already occurred, which is why I locked in my selection with Sinickal and Hopps.

St. Louis Rams +5 1/5 at Atlanta Falcons
Sam Bradford with some weapons can be scary, and with a really dynamic defense, the Rams are going to give the Falcons all they can handle on offense, especially with a hobbled Julio Jones and Roddy White.  Steven Jackson will not be able to exact any revenge against his former team.

Cleveland Browns +7 at Baltimore Ravens
This is not last year's Baltimore Ravens, and this is not last year's Cleveland Browns.  I believe the Ravens still win, but as this will be a defensive struggle, the game will be close.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Buffalo Bills
Carolina had a really good run to end the season last year and even though they lost last week, it was to Seattle.  Buffalo played New England tough, and Manuel can be very accurate in the short to mid-range passing game, but New England doesn't look to be that dominating anymore, so Buffalo's performance last week is minimized.  Carolina, behind a big game from Cam Newton, wins on the road.

Chicago Bears -6 v. Minnesota Vikings
The Bears played really well against a tough, potential Super Bowl team in Cincinnati.  Minnesota is one dimensional on offense (albeit a phenomenal dimension in Adrian Peterson).  This Bears team looks too well rounded for the Vikings.  Is it time for Minnesota to look for a Christian Ponder replacement? (Actually - it is past time).

Washington Redskins +7 at Green Bay Packers
RGIII had a tremendous second half against the Eagles last week, even with his limitations.  The Packers defense is as suspect, or worse, than the Eagles defense.  Aaron Rodgers is still being asked to do everything himself, and as talented as he is, the Packers will not win by more than a touchdown.

Houston Texans -8 v. Tennessee Titans
One big favorite has to win (and more importantly cover) don't they?  This Titans team might be better than expected, but they are not as good as the Texans.  I chalk up the Monday Night first half to the electricity of the home opener for the Chargers; the second half Texans is what I expect today.

Indianapolis Colts - 2 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
Last year's most improved team plays this year's most improved team.  The Dolphins, who behind Ryan Tannehill spread the ball around to a number of receivers, will test the Colts defensive backfield, but Andrew Luck will persevere in a battle of sophomore quarterbacks.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 v. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers came out strong against the Texans, and the Eagles did the same against the Redskins.  However, the Eagles offense seems to be so electric, that the Chargers won't be able to hold them close.  My opinion is that the Chargers' game last week was an anomaly.

Detroit Lions -2 at Arizona Cardinals
The biggest individual match-up of the day; Calvin Johnson v. Patrick Peterson.  I know that Larry Fitzgerald is enthralled that he has a quarterback that can actually throw the ball - my apologies to John Skelton, but Megatron has his chemistry with his quarterback already.  The Honey Badger could be the wildcard, but I look for Detroit to still win this game.  Remember, they held Adrian Peterson to under 100 yards last week.

New Orleans Saints -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are so dysfunctional right now, and there is no love lost between head coach Greg Schiano and quarterback Josh Freeman.  Meanwhile, Drew Brees has his coach back this season.  This game could get out of hand quickly, as Tampa Bay lost to the Jets last week.

Denver Broncos -4 1/2 at New York Giants 
This is the first time that we have seen this quarterback match-up in a long time.  No, not of brothers, but of quarterbacks that both threw for over 400 yards the preceding week.  Eli is going to have to do the same thing to have a chance.  If you just watch the two, it is clear that Peyton is the better quarterback.  More importantly, it is clear that the Broncos are the better team.

Oakland Raiders - 4 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Perhaps the Raiders have found their quarterback in Terrelle Pryor.  Now Pryor could not solve the Wisconsin Badgers' defense in college.  Lucky for him, he isn't playing Wisconsin, he is playing Jacksonville.

San Francisco 49ers +3 at Seattle Seahawks
I honestly have no idea what to do with this game.  When in doubt, take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
A.J. Green is trying to lay his claim to the title "Best non-Calvin Johnson Receiver in the NFL", and he is likely to torch a missing Steelers' secondary.  That isn't the worst of it for Pittsburgh, however, as they have no offensive line whatsoever, and the Bengal defensive line is one of their strengths.  I see about 6 sacks in today's game.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Kansas City Chiefs
Yes the Chiefs have talent and Yes the Chiefs have a new coaching staff.  However, I do not think they are that much improved from last year's 4-12 team.  The Cowboys offense is high-scoring, and all they have to do is score enough points that this game stays close.  I predict that they win outright.

Previous Week's Record: 8-7-1
Year to Date: 8-7-1
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 1-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $180
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $180