Picks of the Week

The NFL is back, and so are my Picks of the Week.  For those that have been following, this will be a quick refresher on the procedures behind my picks (for those that are new - this will be new): Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

Denver Broncos -7 v. Baltimore Ravens
Yes this game already occurred - see previous entry.

New England Patriots -10 at Buffalo Bills
Normally a 10 point spread for opening week is taboo, except for when the other team looks to be bad, is starting a rooking quarterback, and that rookie quarterback missed most of the last three weeks with an injury.  I think the Patriots learn to rely on the strength of their offense, which this year is the running game.

Seattle Seahawks -3 at Carolina Panthers
Another road favorite?  Usually a recipe for disaster, except that Seattle - when their starters have been in the game - have been absolutely trucking people.  If this was a 3 1/2 or 4 point spread, I most likely would have taken Carolina, but with it being only three, I'll take Seattle.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Chicago Bears
With the Ravens performance on Thursday, Cincinnati looks to be the class of their division.  The Bears should be a solid team, but I think that this game is going to be really close, so I will take the points.

Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
Believe it or not, this game is a match-up of potential playoff darkhorses.  Miami, I think, will be much improved, but expect a healthy dose of Trent Richardson behind Joe Thomas.

Detroit Lions -4 v. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota likely will be worse than last year.  Although they have a fantastic running back in Adrian Peterson, the loss of Williams on the defensive line hurts, as they need to put pressure on Matthew Stafford.  Without that pressure, he will find Calvin Johnson often against the Vikings secondary.

Indianapolis Colts -10 v. Oakland Raiders
Once again - never take a double digit spread in week 1, unless that team is playing the Raiders, with all due respect to Sebastian Janikowski, the one truly NFL level player on that team - excepting Terrelle Pryor.  Just kidding, not excepting Terrelle Pryor.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars 
Alex Smith v. Blaine Gabbert - a scintillating quarterback match-up (please note sarcasm).  Kansas City, although they did not have a good record last year, still had enough talent to have 7 Pro Bowlers.  Imagine what a new (good) coaching staff can do with that talent.  Jacksonville does not have that talent.

Atlanta Falcons -3 at New Orleans Saints
Yes Sean Payton is back, and that should make a big difference for New Orleans over the course of the year, but Atlanta has just as much - and likely more - firepower than the Saints.  Even if New Orleans can squeak out a win, take Atlanta and the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 at New York Jets
I almost selected this as my big pick of the week, since I am not sure that the Jets offense can score 3 points behind rookie quarterback Geno Smith.  The only reason I did not select this for my big pick is that the Jets defense is still very good, even though the team is really bad, and the Jets have a way of screwing with everyone.

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
San Francisco torched Green Bay in the playoffs, and that was with Bryan Bulaga protecting Aaron Rodgers.  The loss of their left tackle could be a big problem for the Packers this year as their line has been suspect even with him present - especially in this game with the Smith brothers attacking the quarterback.

St. Louis Rams -4 v. Arizona Cardinals
St. Louis is primed to make some noise in the NFC this year, as they went undefeated in divisional games last year, and the team went out and picked up some offensive weapons for Sam Bradford.  Plus, Jeff Fisher is a GREAT coach.  Arizona should be improved with the pick-up of Tyrann Mathieu to go with Patrick Peterson, and with an actual - albeit average - quarterback.

Dallas Cowboys -3 v. New York Giants
Two highly erratic teams so you never know what is going to happen when they play.  The Cowboys have a prolific passing attack, and if the new Offensive Coordinator can actually utilize DeMarco Murray in the running game, this team can be scary good on offense.  The Giants are equally volatile, but I think their secondary is the difference in the game - and not in a good way.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Washington Redskins
I love RGIII, and I would love to see local boy Alfred Morris continue his amazing run, but sometimes you just see a bet that looks so obvious in one direction that you have to take the other.  With Chip Kelly's offense being a big unknown, and since a hurry up will allow athletes like Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson shine, the Eagles take this game.  I just hope Riley Cooper does not play a large part in this game.

Houston Texans -4 at San Diego Chargers
This game was another contender for my big bet of the week, I just simply did not want until 10:30 on Monday night to wait to see if my big bet comes it.  I expect Houston to win big.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Tennessee, while most likely going to be very average this year, but is getting 6 1/2 points from a team that looks to a lot worse than usual.  They lost Mike Wallace without replacing him, they seem lost in the running game, and the defense may not be as strong as Pittsburgh defenses are supposed to be.

Previous Week's Record: 0-0
Year to Date: 0-0
Big Bet Last Week: 0-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 0-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $0
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $0