Abbreviated picks this week, as I am traveling. I righted the ship last week after my first and only losing week of the season. On to the picks.
Baltimore Ravems -12 v. Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings +3 at Carolina Panthers
Jacksonville Jaguars +9 1/2 v. Houston Texans
Tennessee Tirans -8 v. Indianapolis Colts
New Orleans Saints -13 1/2 at St. Louis Rams
New York Giants -9 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills -4 v. Washington Redskins
New England -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers -8 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals -1 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
San Diego Chargers -3 Kansas City Chiefs
Big Bet
Detroit Lions -3 at Denver Broncos
Previous Week's Record: 6-6-1
Year-to-Date: 46-41-3
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $90
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $990
Sunday, October 30, 2011
Saturday, October 22, 2011
Picks of the Week
It is time for the "picks of the week". A quick refresher: Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler.
I apologize for missing last week. Not good as two weeks ago was my first losing week (only -$20, so not too bad), but I was out celebrating my Mom's 60th birthday. I hope you understand. On to the picks.
Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 v. Washington Redskins
When your best offensive player and your best defensive player are both upset that John Beck is starting, then your team has problems. Plus, I had a dream that the Panthers drafted Justin Blackmon this year to go with Cam Newtwon and Steve Smith - wouldn't that be something?!
Tennessee Titans -3 v Houston Texans
Tennessee always plays tough, and the Texans are once again without Andre Johnson. Although I would have loved to have seen McCourty cover Johnson during this game, it appears McCourty will have to be happy shutting down Walter and Jones.
San Diego Chargers +1 at New York Jets
Beating the Dolphins doesn't impress me Jets.
Denver Broncos pick 'em at Miami Dolphins
Coming off a bye week and playing the Dolphins is the perfect storm for Tim Tebow. But, see my immediate entry above.
Detroit Lions -3 v. Atlanta Falcons
I just don't think the Falcons defense can stop the Lions offense, even though the Lions are effectively without any running backs - unless you include Keiland Williams.
Seattle Seahawks +3 at Cleveland Browns
Not because this is what I think will actually happen, but simply because I have been saying that I will bet against Seattle until they start Charlie Whitehurst. Well, they are starting Charlie Whitehurst.
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 at Arizona Cardinals
What a long way away from he Super Bowl for both of these teams.
Oakland Raiders -3 1/2 v Kansas City Chiefs
I really don't know what to make of the Raiders QB situation, but in any event, they still have Darren McFadden. If I was the Raiders, I would be more concerned about missing Sebastian Janikowski. Putting this one on the defense.
Green Bay Packers -10 at Minnesota VIkings
Never take a 10 point road divisional favorite - unless of course the other team is starting a rookie QB in his very first NFL start, their starting CB was just arrested on domestic assault charges and isn't likely to be released before the game, and they just aren't very good.
Dallas Cowboys -13 v. St. Louis Rams
This Rams team just is not very good. I am worried about the 13 point spread, but Austin has a game under his belt, and hopefully a little more synch to the offense.
New Orleans Sainst -13 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
Marques Colston is officially back after last week's performance, and, I figured that I have already taken each of the other two double digit favorites.
Baltimore Ravens -8 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ravens are one of the best two or three teams in the NFL. The Jaguars aren't.
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Chicago Bears -1 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (in London)
After last week's performance, I have to pick the Bears, especially since the Bucs will be without LaGarrette Blount. The Bears arrived much later in London than the Bucs, I just hope they get acclimated to the time change prior to kickoff.
Previous Week's Record: 6-7
Year to Date: 40-35-2
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 5-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: ($20)
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $900
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
World Series Roundtable
As Game 1 is underway, it is time to reveal our discussions and predictions for the World Series.
Hopps, since you predicted each of the divisional series correctly, would you like to go first, or last.
Hopps: I'll go last. Sinickal, you're up!
Sinickal: I look up and down each of the rosters and the Texas Rangers are just better than the Cardinals. With the possible exception of Carpenter as ace, and Pujols as best overall player (but not by much over Hamilton), the Rangers are better top-to-bottom. That means the Rangers should win this thing, and I will say in 6.
However, if we fast forwarded ten days or so and you told me that the Cardinals won, for some reason I would not be surprised. Such a victory would have to be based upon the pure power of Albert Pujols, just willing this team to a World Series victory as part of his goodbye St. Louis victory tour.
That being said, I still say Rangers in 6.
Pepster: Sinickal, as much as I agree with the fact that Pujols can do what Prince Fielder didn't, and that is lead his team in the playoffs before heading out of dodge, where is he going to go? The Red Sox and Yankees are set, for big money, at first base, Pujols is too athletic to DH and Fielder is younger such as to have a bit more value in free agency. The Dodgers like Loney, although he is nowhere near the player Pujols is, the Angels could be a candidate, or .... AH HA! You are pushing Pujols for the Cubs! I knew there was an ulterior motive to your honoring Pujols despite picking against the Cardinals.
Wow - that was pretty good psychology right there.
Anyway, I am going to agree with your Rangers in 6. Carpenter wins at least 1 so the series goes 6, but that Rangers lineup is loaded! Hamilton has yet to hit his postseason groove, if Nelson Cruz's next hit is for extra bases, he ties the record of consecutive post-season extra base hits held by the immortal Jayson Werth, and Young, Beltre, Kinsler, Napoli, et. al all have power. And I keep preaching the value of Elvis Andrus, and at some point he is going to explode. The Rangers have enough pitching, and they were here last year. I think it all adds up.
Hopps, your opinion?
Hopps: Texas.
Pepster: Anything else to add?
Hopps: Nope.
Sinickal: Why not?
Hopps: I don't have to justify anything, I was perfect the last round we did this. OUT!
Hopps, since you predicted each of the divisional series correctly, would you like to go first, or last.
Hopps: I'll go last. Sinickal, you're up!
Sinickal: I look up and down each of the rosters and the Texas Rangers are just better than the Cardinals. With the possible exception of Carpenter as ace, and Pujols as best overall player (but not by much over Hamilton), the Rangers are better top-to-bottom. That means the Rangers should win this thing, and I will say in 6.
However, if we fast forwarded ten days or so and you told me that the Cardinals won, for some reason I would not be surprised. Such a victory would have to be based upon the pure power of Albert Pujols, just willing this team to a World Series victory as part of his goodbye St. Louis victory tour.
That being said, I still say Rangers in 6.
Pepster: Sinickal, as much as I agree with the fact that Pujols can do what Prince Fielder didn't, and that is lead his team in the playoffs before heading out of dodge, where is he going to go? The Red Sox and Yankees are set, for big money, at first base, Pujols is too athletic to DH and Fielder is younger such as to have a bit more value in free agency. The Dodgers like Loney, although he is nowhere near the player Pujols is, the Angels could be a candidate, or .... AH HA! You are pushing Pujols for the Cubs! I knew there was an ulterior motive to your honoring Pujols despite picking against the Cardinals.
Wow - that was pretty good psychology right there.
Anyway, I am going to agree with your Rangers in 6. Carpenter wins at least 1 so the series goes 6, but that Rangers lineup is loaded! Hamilton has yet to hit his postseason groove, if Nelson Cruz's next hit is for extra bases, he ties the record of consecutive post-season extra base hits held by the immortal Jayson Werth, and Young, Beltre, Kinsler, Napoli, et. al all have power. And I keep preaching the value of Elvis Andrus, and at some point he is going to explode. The Rangers have enough pitching, and they were here last year. I think it all adds up.
Hopps, your opinion?
Hopps: Texas.
Pepster: Anything else to add?
Hopps: Nope.
Sinickal: Why not?
Hopps: I don't have to justify anything, I was perfect the last round we did this. OUT!
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Tebow, The Next Newton?
Let me open this way. You will learn nothing new in the next few paragraphs. This is my effort at piling on to the Tim Tebow narrative.
So, Tim Tebow has finally been tapped as the starter in Denver. His early success is almost a guarantee give that he has a bye week, then a homecoming game in Miami against one of the worst teams in football. The Bye week alone should be enough to vault him into the top five quarterbacks in the league. The schedule gets harder after that, but will it matter? Three weeks from now, Tebow will be better than Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or...wait for it...Cam Newton!
It will be interesting to watch the next few weeks. Tebow does some things that blow your mind - and not in a good way. He had a play in the game against San Diego in Week 5 in which he turned his back to the line of scrimmage for no apparent reason. it was part of some strange pirouette that didn't make sense because he wasn't under that much pressure. What the hell was that? I am sorry. I shouldn't cuss when talking about Tim Tebow.
I get that he is big and athletic and super enthusiastic and a really sweet guy, but he is not a NFL quarterback.
Let me repeat that. He is not an NFL quarterback.
Full disclosure -- I also thought Cam Newton would fail miserably in the NFL. Fail like Tiger Woods in a family structure. I was completely wrong. Cam Newton is big and athletic, and is blessed with a cannon. Newton can make any throw from the pocket and is near impossible to defend when he is on the run. He is also much better at understanding his offense and reading defenses than I ever thought he would be. I am quickly becoming sold on him as a starting quarterback in the league. So far, he is worth the first overall pick that Carolina spent on him.
Tebow, on the other hand, was drafted much earlier than he should have been. It was a mistake to put this kind of pressure on him and on the Denver Broncos franchise. Tebow has poor mechanics, poorer accuracy, and the arm strength of Carl Lewis. That combination will not survive in today's NFL. If you can't make all of the throws in this league, you will not survive!
I am looking forward to this. I am not a true Tebow hater, I just think that the love for this guy borders on irrational! It will be comical watching the UF fans fawn all over him during his "Florida Day" in Miami next week. It will be nauseating listening to the Brett Favre like love affair with him a week from Monday. And it will be satisfying to see him taking his place on the bench with all of the other highly touted, underachieving quarterbacks that simply can't play at the NFL level.
We have seen this story before.
So, Tim Tebow has finally been tapped as the starter in Denver. His early success is almost a guarantee give that he has a bye week, then a homecoming game in Miami against one of the worst teams in football. The Bye week alone should be enough to vault him into the top five quarterbacks in the league. The schedule gets harder after that, but will it matter? Three weeks from now, Tebow will be better than Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or...wait for it...Cam Newton!
It will be interesting to watch the next few weeks. Tebow does some things that blow your mind - and not in a good way. He had a play in the game against San Diego in Week 5 in which he turned his back to the line of scrimmage for no apparent reason. it was part of some strange pirouette that didn't make sense because he wasn't under that much pressure. What the hell was that? I am sorry. I shouldn't cuss when talking about Tim Tebow.
I get that he is big and athletic and super enthusiastic and a really sweet guy, but he is not a NFL quarterback.
Let me repeat that. He is not an NFL quarterback.
Full disclosure -- I also thought Cam Newton would fail miserably in the NFL. Fail like Tiger Woods in a family structure. I was completely wrong. Cam Newton is big and athletic, and is blessed with a cannon. Newton can make any throw from the pocket and is near impossible to defend when he is on the run. He is also much better at understanding his offense and reading defenses than I ever thought he would be. I am quickly becoming sold on him as a starting quarterback in the league. So far, he is worth the first overall pick that Carolina spent on him.
Tebow, on the other hand, was drafted much earlier than he should have been. It was a mistake to put this kind of pressure on him and on the Denver Broncos franchise. Tebow has poor mechanics, poorer accuracy, and the arm strength of Carl Lewis. That combination will not survive in today's NFL. If you can't make all of the throws in this league, you will not survive!
I am looking forward to this. I am not a true Tebow hater, I just think that the love for this guy borders on irrational! It will be comical watching the UF fans fawn all over him during his "Florida Day" in Miami next week. It will be nauseating listening to the Brett Favre like love affair with him a week from Monday. And it will be satisfying to see him taking his place on the bench with all of the other highly touted, underachieving quarterbacks that simply can't play at the NFL level.
We have seen this story before.
Saturday, October 8, 2011
Picks of the Week
It is time for the "picks of the week". A quick refresher: Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. First set of bye weeks this week, so less games to choose. Gotta be careful to keep finishing in the money. On to the picks.
Philadelphia Eagles -2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
The curtain was pulled back a bit last week. The Bills are still being wizarded by the Harvard guy, but that first loss hurt their mystique.
Tennessee Titans +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
James Harrison being hurt limits the Steelers at two positions, as Lawrence Timmons moves inside. Mendenhall has not been special this year, but he is still generally pretty good, so his loss hurts as well. The Titans are playing well so far this year.
New York Giants -9 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Once again ... Tarvaris Jackson.
Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Arizona Cardinals
A surprisingly difficult game for me to select. In those situations I usually take the points. But then again, I usually am not choosing against Kevin Kolb.
Cincinnati Bengals +1 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati surprised everyone last week beating Buffalo. Should be a fun battle of rookie quarterbacks.
Indianapolis Colts -2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
The Colts looked stronger than I expected against a tough Tampa team. The Chiefs ... not so tough.
New Orleans -6 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
That first week loss to the Packers might have been between the best two teams in the league. Cam Newton is fast becoming the most exciting player in the NFL.
Oakland Raiders +5 at Houston Texans
The Raiders are pretty good, and the Texans, although still explosive, will miss Andre Johnson.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. San Francisco 49ers
A surprisingly good matchup between two potential playoff teams. I will take the points, and hope the Bucs play a bit better than they did last week.
New England Patriots -7 v. New York Jets
Yes, I know that Rex Ryan seems to have the Patriots number. However, this is not the same Jets team from the last few years. Plus, Ryan refuses to put Revis on Welker in the slot, preferring to keep him outside. That could limit Ochocinco to like, 2 catches!
Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Best team in the league right now going against a team that was very overrated at the beginning of the year. I don't see how Atlanta stops Green Bay's offense.
Chicago Bears +5 at Detroit Lions
I don't think my Bears can win ... but I do think they can cover. Detroit's first time on the big stage in a long, long time.
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
San Diego Chargers -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos
I know this is a divisional game, but really, how is the line this close?
Previous Week's Record: 8-8
Year to Date: 34-28-2
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 4-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $70
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $920
Sunday, October 2, 2011
Picks of the Week
Short picks this week because I am traveling.
Chicago -7
Washington -3
San Francisco +9 1/2
Minnesota -3
New Orleans -8 1/2
Pittsburgh +3 1/2
Detroit +2 1/2
Buffalo -3
Tennessee pick 'em
Atlanta -4 1/2
Green Bay -12
Miami +6 1/2
Oakland +6
Baltimore -4 1/2
Tampa Bay -10
Big Bet
New York Giants -1
Last Week's Record: 8-7-1
Record Year-to-Date: 26-20-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 3-0
Last Week's Winnings: $180
Winnings Year-to-Date: $850
Chicago -7
Washington -3
San Francisco +9 1/2
Minnesota -3
New Orleans -8 1/2
Pittsburgh +3 1/2
Detroit +2 1/2
Buffalo -3
Tennessee pick 'em
Atlanta -4 1/2
Green Bay -12
Miami +6 1/2
Oakland +6
Baltimore -4 1/2
Tampa Bay -10
Big Bet
New York Giants -1
Last Week's Record: 8-7-1
Record Year-to-Date: 26-20-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 3-0
Last Week's Winnings: $180
Winnings Year-to-Date: $850
Friday, September 30, 2011
MLB Divisional Series Roundtable
As the first playoff game begins, Hopps, Sinickal and myself all knock off work a bit early to have a quick roundtable discussion on the MLB divisional series. For our collective thoughts and picks, let's begin with the first game, Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers. Hopps?
Hopps: Screw you!
Pepster: My bad - I probably shouldn't have started with the Red Sox fan on this one. Sinickal, your thoughts?
Sinickal: I am going with Tampa. I think they will have a short hangover, but ultimately an easy series. They are a really good team from the best division. Four games.
Pepster: I have to disagree. I think that the Rangers just have too much for the Rays. The Rays are supposed to have pitching and defense, but they are starting Matt Moore in only his second MLB start in Game 1. Texas's lineup is stacked now that everyone is healthy, and it is about time people realize that Elvis Andrus is going to be really, really good. Also in four games.
Hopps: Damn. Now no matter who I select I have to agree with one of you. I am going to say Texas, as the Rays just won their World Series.
Pepster: Now to the marquee American League matchup, Detroit and New York Yankees. I think that nobody has really been talking about Detroit all year outside of Verlander, but that lineup is good and deep. The Yankees lineup is deep too, but guys like Miguel Cabrera are just too dumb to realize they are supposed to lose to the Yankees. Plus, I don't think Verlander will even have to pitch two games in this series. Tigers in 4.
Sinickal: Verlander gets to pitch games 1 and 5. That means that the Yankees have to win 3 straight in the middle. I don't seem them getting that done.
Hopps: Detroit - Verlander. That's all.
We all agree on that one. Let's go to another series where we should all agree, Philadelphia and St. Louis. Hopps?
Hopps: St. Louis. They are playing good baseball. This is the upset of the playoffs.
Pepster: They do have Pujols, but there is no way that I can pick them. It's Philly. There offense has not been the typical Philly offense all year, but they still have Victorino, Rollins, Utley, Howard, et. al. And they have pitching! Philadelphia in 4.
Sinickal: Best team in baseball with great pitching in a short series. This might be a sweep.
And for the last series - Milwaukee or Arizona?
Sinickal: Arizona plays in the equivalent of the NFC West. Good team and bad division v. Great team. I'll pick Milwaukee.
Hopps: I will also take Milwaukee. They win at home; best home winning percentage in the majors.
Pepster: I will make it 3 for 3, even though Justin Upton could be the best player in baseball that nobody talks about. Sneaky good pitching, and Braun/Fielder is a helluva one-two punch, especially with Hart and McGehee showing some power as well. Brewers in 4.
That wraps up our divisional roundtable. But what would this conversation be without mentioning our Patron Saint, Adam Jones, helping to eliminate the Red Sox from the playoffs.
Hopps: That isn't the same Adam Jones. I hate you.
Pepster: Oh, my bad, maybe I just wanted to mention that the Sox collapsed. See you back here for the League Championship Series roundtable.
Hopps: Screw you!
Pepster: My bad - I probably shouldn't have started with the Red Sox fan on this one. Sinickal, your thoughts?
Sinickal: I am going with Tampa. I think they will have a short hangover, but ultimately an easy series. They are a really good team from the best division. Four games.
Pepster: I have to disagree. I think that the Rangers just have too much for the Rays. The Rays are supposed to have pitching and defense, but they are starting Matt Moore in only his second MLB start in Game 1. Texas's lineup is stacked now that everyone is healthy, and it is about time people realize that Elvis Andrus is going to be really, really good. Also in four games.
Hopps: Damn. Now no matter who I select I have to agree with one of you. I am going to say Texas, as the Rays just won their World Series.
Pepster: Now to the marquee American League matchup, Detroit and New York Yankees. I think that nobody has really been talking about Detroit all year outside of Verlander, but that lineup is good and deep. The Yankees lineup is deep too, but guys like Miguel Cabrera are just too dumb to realize they are supposed to lose to the Yankees. Plus, I don't think Verlander will even have to pitch two games in this series. Tigers in 4.
Sinickal: Verlander gets to pitch games 1 and 5. That means that the Yankees have to win 3 straight in the middle. I don't seem them getting that done.
Hopps: Detroit - Verlander. That's all.
We all agree on that one. Let's go to another series where we should all agree, Philadelphia and St. Louis. Hopps?
Hopps: St. Louis. They are playing good baseball. This is the upset of the playoffs.
Pepster: They do have Pujols, but there is no way that I can pick them. It's Philly. There offense has not been the typical Philly offense all year, but they still have Victorino, Rollins, Utley, Howard, et. al. And they have pitching! Philadelphia in 4.
Sinickal: Best team in baseball with great pitching in a short series. This might be a sweep.
And for the last series - Milwaukee or Arizona?
Sinickal: Arizona plays in the equivalent of the NFC West. Good team and bad division v. Great team. I'll pick Milwaukee.
Hopps: I will also take Milwaukee. They win at home; best home winning percentage in the majors.
Pepster: I will make it 3 for 3, even though Justin Upton could be the best player in baseball that nobody talks about. Sneaky good pitching, and Braun/Fielder is a helluva one-two punch, especially with Hart and McGehee showing some power as well. Brewers in 4.
That wraps up our divisional roundtable. But what would this conversation be without mentioning our Patron Saint, Adam Jones, helping to eliminate the Red Sox from the playoffs.
Hopps: That isn't the same Adam Jones. I hate you.
Pepster: Oh, my bad, maybe I just wanted to mention that the Sox collapsed. See you back here for the League Championship Series roundtable.
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