Let Me Be Loud Wrong Early...

The final College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed on Sunday night, and I am positive that I will be really wrong about what I think should and will happen. Why do I say this? Well, because I believe that there should not be a path for Ohio State to be in the final four.

I said Ohio State has to be left out!

If everything stays status quo, I think that the final four should be:

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Washington
4. Penn State/Wisconsin winner

Okay, let me defend this since every expert says that Ohio State is clearly the second best team in the country. Why shouldn't I believe this?

I hate the eye test. They just look like the second best team. Or, the conference is the best this year, it deserves to have two teams. To me, this is the classic old school thinking that got us to a need for playoff committee and process to begin with. If this were just about an eye test, then yes, Ohio State looks great. Unfortunately, we have conferences. We have 12 game schedules. We have conference championship games. We can ACTUALLY determine the best teams in each conference.

How you ask?

WIN. YOUR. FREAKING. CONFERENCE.

The College Football Playoff Committee was established to find the best four teams at the end of the year. If you go to their website, you will find the following regarding the selection of the teams:

The selection committee ranks the teams based on conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, comparison of results against common opponents and other factors.

Ohio State will not play for its conference championship, because it lost to Penn State. If you aren't eligible to play for your conference championship, how can you be considered the best team in that conference? It invalidates the season and renders having a clear conference champion useless.

Look, this is going to be a very hard decision for the committee. The case for Ohio State and/or Michigan appears really strong:

• The Big 10 Champion is going to be a 2-loss team, and everybody really wants to see Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh in the playoffs. College football is a coaches game, and they are the stars
• The Big 10 Champion will have a head to head loss to Michigan
• Wisconsin lost to both Michigan and Ohio State
• The popular vote (polls) have had both Ohio State and Michigan highly ranked the entire year

But again, neither team figured out how to get enough wins to win their division, and there cannot be a reward for not playing in the conference championship.

Again, I am going to be loud wrong. While I truly hope for it, I don't believe that the committee will leave Ohio State out of the playoff. If the Big 12 Champion, and either the Big 10 or Pac 12 Champion is left out, there should be an investigation. Otherwise, there isn't really a need to play the regular season. Want to know who the playoff will be next year? Because I already know. It will be Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, and USC. Boom. Now you can all spend your Saturdays next fall playing golf and completing honey-do lists.

Once again, a solid week picking games with a good record, but missed the  big bet again.  Two weeks is good, three becomes a winning streak.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Minnesota Vikings +2 at Detroit Lions

Minnesota should have won a super close game just a few weeks ago, so I will take the points in a belief that today will be close as well.

Washington Racists +6 at Dallas Cowboys
Big test in the NFC East.  For all of the talk of the Cowboys offense being virtually unstoppable, they are third in the league in total offense, whereas the Racists are third.  This game should be close, and I feel DeSean Jackson or Jamison Crowder break one big play.  Rob Kelley has been a find.  (Not talking about Dallas because everyone else in the country already is).

Pittsburgh Steelers -9 at Indianapolis Colts
I have no idea what to do with this game.  Scott Tolzien is playing for the Colts in place of Andrew Luck.  The problem is that the Steelers have been giving up yards and points to teams with quarterbacks like Scott Tolzien.

Chicago Bears + 4 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
Admittedly, this should be a defeat for me, as the Titans should handle the Bears easily, especially without Jerrell Freeman and his 4 game suspension.  However, this is a reverse tanking karma pick.  Remember: DeShaun Watson.

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Arizona Cardinals
Other than David Johnson and a surprisingly great season from Larry Fitzgerald at age 93, the Cardinals have to be one of the more disappointing teams in the league.  I look for the Falcons to fly high over the Cardinals, and prey on the inferior birds with aggression.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

A.J. Green is out, which may actually force Andy Dalton to spread the ball around more against the second ranked total defense in the NFL.  Close game, so I'll take the points.

Buffalo Bills -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

This line scares me because of a last minute touchdown pass from Bortles to Robinson or Hurns to lose 21-14.  Nevertheless, my brother-in-law says to take the Bills, and he is a Jaguars season ticket holder.  In LeSean I trust.

New York Giants -7 at Cleveland Browns
I don't see the Browns rallying around Josh McCown.  This game ends 10-2.

Houston Texans +1 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers

I hate taking too many road favorites, so I am not taking the Chargers today.  I just love this line though, as the fourth place Chargers are favorites on the road at the first place Texans.  I hate this game.

Miami Dolphins -7 1/2 San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco, the Cleveland of the NFC.  Jay Ajayi could easily get his third 200 yard game of the year.

Seattle Seahawks -6 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gotta love a game in which the leading rushers for the teams have 82 yards and 181 yards gained respectively.  Since I have taken all the other big spreads, what the hell, I'll do it again.

New Orleans -7 v. Los Angeles Rams
The Saints can score, and the Rams cannot.  Plus, I have already given up a ton of points in other games, so why not.

Oakland Raiders -3 v. Carolina Panthers
Carolina is holding onto faint playoff hopes, whereas Oakland is in total control of its own destiny.  I worry about the short week for the Raiders after playing at high altitude, so look for them to fade in the fourth quarter.

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at New York Jets
Why not another big road favorite.  Plus we just had the anniversary of the butt fumble.  Martellus Bennett with two touchdowns and the Patriots win 38-21.

Kansas City Chiefs +3 at Denver Broncos

The winner stays solid in the divisional title hunt and solidifies a wild card spot.    Both teams at 7-3, although neither team is prolific, so I'll take the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 v. Green Bay Packers
To quote Bomani Jones, the Packers' secondary is a lay-up line.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Washington Racists +6 at Dallas Cowboys
Big test in the NFC East.  For all of the talk of the Cowboys offense being virtually unstoppable, they are third in the league in total offense, whereas the Racists are third.  This game should be close, and I feel DeSean Jackson or Jamison Crowder break one big play.  Rob Kelley has been a find.  (Not talking about Dallas because everyone else in the country already is).

I thought about taking both Buffalo and New England here, but I changed my mind to pick the game in which I was receiving the most points.  This will come back to haunt me I am sure.

Last Week's Record: 8-5-1

Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 78-81-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-10

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $85

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($2830)

Picks of the Week

Finally a solid week picking games with a good record, if only decent winnings because of that damn big bet.  Let's see if I finally have learned something about this year and can keep this little winning streak going.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

New Orleans Saints +3 at Carolina Panthers

Damn pushes.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
I just have this weird feeling about this one, as I initially thought Buffalo was an easy pick.  I can't explain it, just going with Cincinnati.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 at New York Giants
Once again, a reverse pick just to assure that DeShaun Watson can be Cutler's successor.

Pittsburgh Steelers -8 at Cleveland Browns
A road favorite, giving 8 points in a conference game.  Cleveland just stinks. They have been playing hard, but poorly for weeks now.

Baltimore Ravens +7 at Dallas Cowboys
Yes the Cowboys are everybody's darlings right now in the league, but they have only beaten two teams with winning records.  I still think they win this game, but it will be close.  The league's number one ranked rushing and total yards defense versus the offensive line and Ezekial Elliott.  Should be a fun game in the trenches.

Detroit Lions -6 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Is it possible that every play in this game is a pass?

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at Indianapolis

Marcus Mariota is the the quarterback with the highest QB Rating in this game (albeit it is close).  Murray likely goes over 1,000 yards on the season.  Titans roll into first place in their division.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Do not be fooled by Tampa's brilliant performance last week, it was against the Bears.  That being said, Cameron Brate is an emerging star at the Tight End position (Go Harvard!)

Arizona Cardinals +1 at Minnesota Vikings

Both teams on major slides right now.  The Vikings defense has been a bit exposed lately.

Miami Dolphins pick 'em at Los Angeles Rams
A lot is going to be made of Jared Goff's first start, but more should be made of the Dolphins 4 game winning streak, the fact that Jay Ajayi has outrushed Todd Gurley by over 200 yards, and the fact that although the Rams defense is generally stout, they are only 18th against the run.

New England Patriots -11 at San Francisco 49ers
I almost don't care how many points I have to give up in this game.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 1-4 on the raod this year, whereas the Seahawks are 4-0 at home.  Look for the Seattle defense to feast upon a rookie quarterback.

Washington Racists -3 v. Green Bay Packers
Washington is 5-1-1 in their last seven games, led by their third ranked passing offense (and fourth overall).  The Packers are pedestrian on offense and defense this year.

Oakland Raiders -5 1/2 v. Houston Texans in Mexico City

Altitude is going to play a factor as Estadio Azteca is at an elevation of over 7,000 feet, or roughly 7,000 feet higher than both Oakland and Houston.  Whichever teams adapts the best will win this game.  My money is on the team with more talent.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at Indianapolis

Marcus Mariota is the the quarterback with the highest QB Rating in this game (albeit it is close).  Murray likely goes over 1,000 yards on the season.  Titans roll into first place in their division.
I honestly couldn't easily decide which game I wanted to be my big bet.  I ultimately decided on Tennessee over Washington, Seattle and Kansas City and Detroit because Tennessee was getting points.

Last Week's Record: 9-5
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 70-76-3
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $185
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($2915)

Picks of the Week

I am travelling as we speak, so no time for real analysis, just picks.  Not that it specifically matters, but I am heading to Tampa for the Chicago Bears game.

You know the rules - now for the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -8 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Chicago Bears -2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Miami Dolphins +4 1/2 at San Diego Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs  +3 at Carolina Panthers

New Orleans Saints -3 v. Denver Broncos

New York Jets +1 v. Los Angeles Rams

Atlanta Falcons +1 at Philadelphia Eagles

Tennessee Titans +3 v. Green Bay Packers

Washington Racists -1 1/2 v.  Minnesota Vikings

San Francisco 49ers +14 at Arizona Cardinals

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Seattle Seahawks +7 1/2 at New England

Cincinnati Bengals -1 at New York Giants

 Big Bet - Chicago -2 1/2 at Tampa

Last Week's Record: 4-8-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 61-71-3
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($3100)

Picks of the Week

Week 9 of the NFL Season, and last week stunk as well.  It is clear that I have no idea what the hell is going on in the NFL this year.  That being said, I am not giving up.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Atlanta Falcons -4 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I put this pick on Facebook prior to kickoff, so no allegations of cheating.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
I hate selecting road favorites, as I type ad nauseum in this blog, but I just think seeing Roethlisberger under center will inspire the team, even if he isn't all the way back to 100%.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
I am not so sure that any team plays harder than the Browns.  Not sure they will win, but I imagine that it is going to be closer than most expect.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Questions are already being asked of Gus Bradley as to when he is going to bench Blake Bortles with Chad Henne.  Think about that for a moment.

Miami Dolphins -4 v. New York Jets
I am not expecting Jay Ajayi to put up 200 yards like he did in his last two games before the bye, but the Dolphins offense has definitely discovered something that works for them, and I don't think Fitzpatrick can throw enough to keep up.

Minnesota Vikings -6 v. Detroit Lions

Is Minnesota ripe for a rebound after a lackluster performance Monday night against the Bears, or did a surprisingly spry Bears defense show the recipe to defeat the Vikings stagnant offense.  It could be both, but the Lions aren't the team to take advantage of the Vikings.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at New York Giants

The Eagles certainly aren't as great as their start, but the Giants have no running game at all.  I'll take the points.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Los Angeles Rams
This is the pick in which I honestly scratch my own head over it, but, is it possible that Carolina turned the corner last week?  I hope so.

New Orleans Saints -4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is just horrible.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Indianapolis Colts
This is a gut reaction, because the brain says that 7 is too many points.  Perhaps the new "running" game found by the Packers is for real.  By "running" I mean "more passing".

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
We are going to look back on Philip Rivers's career and wonder how he did what he did with some of the teams he had.

Denver Broncos +1 at Oakland Raiders
I am actually a big believer in the Raiders.  But, their defense needs to do A LOT to catch up to the offense.  Carr, Murray, Cooper, Crabtree and Company will not score as much as they have grown accustomed, and that is why Denver will win this game.

Buffalo Bills +7 at Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo seems a bit different to me lately (with the exception of the New England game, but isn't that everybody's exception?), and that is a good thing overall.  Not sure they will beat Seattle, but I think they can keep it close.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
I hate selecting road favorites, as I type ad nauseum in this blog, but I just think seeing Roethlisberger under center will inspire the team, even if he isn't all the way back to 100%.
This is my big bet mainly because I have no idea how Baltimore is even 3-4.

Last Week's Record:  5-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  57-63-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($545)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($2435)