Picks of the Week

By record, a winning week last week, but not by money as I lost my big bet.  Still up on the year and looking to make up for it this week.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

San Diego Chargers +9 at Denver Broncos
This game has two of the three best quarterbacks in the NFL right now.  Both teams can score points in bunches, which is why the spread is so high.  In my opinion, it is way too high.

Atlanta Falcons + 3 1/2 v. Detroit Lions (In London)
Atlanta is reeling, but I only make this pick because Calvin Johnson is up in the air.  If he plays, I take the Lions -3 1/2.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
The Seahawks are out to show the league that they mean business, even with the Percy Harvin trade being a distraction.  Carolina did not show a lot of fight against Green Bay last week, and Seattle's defense is quite a bit better than the Packers', even with their injuries.  I pick this even despite the fact it is a west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 5 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
I think the Dolphins win this game, but Jacksonville, coming off its first victory, will use that momentum to keep this one close.

St. Louis Rams +7 at Kansas City Chiefs
I do not know what to make of the Rams; when I think they are getting better they play horribly, and when I think they are getting worse, they play well.  Same thing with the Chiefs.  From that perspective, I will say the Chiefs will win, but that the Rams will stay within a touchdown.

Chicago Bears +6 at New England Patriots
OK, so I know what you are saying, this is a "homer" pick.  Actually, it isn't.  I selected Chicago last week because it was so obvious that the line was too low.  I just have picked the opposite of the obvious line.  To me, this line looks like it is begging for me to select the New England Patriots, so I am doing the opposite.  Too bad I have not spent the last few years building up an immunity to iocane powder.

Buffalo Bills +3 at New York Jets
The Jets are on a 3 game losing streak, but yet are favored.  That is because the Bills, while doing much better than expected, are not that good of a team.  I still take them with the points, thanks to Sammy Watkins' looking like he is truly going to be a star, and the fact that the Jets pass defense is horrible.  The defensive line is great, but the secondary not so much.

Minnesota Vikings +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Both teams are BAAAADDDD, so I will take the points.

Houston Texans -2 at Tennessee Titans
Despite their similar records (3-4 v. 2-5), Houston has a lot more talent than Tennessee.  I will take the talent if all I have to give up is 2 points.

Philadelphia Eagles +2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are a tough team, and if the Eagles were favored by 2 1/2 I would seriously contemplate selecting Arizona.  But since it is reversed, I am going to take the points and the team with the better offense.

Oakland Raiders +6 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
Admit it, the Browns are better than you thought with Brian Hoyer at quarterback.  However, you also have to admit that the Raiders have been playing teams tough, and the Browns are not a touchdown better than the Raiders.

Indianapolis Colts -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Those of you who follow regularly know that I despise taking visiting favorites, or at least a lot of them.  However, the Colts are the best offense in the NFL in yards and second in scoring, and also the best defense at stopping teams on third down, allowing something like 4 in their last 41 chances.  Add in that Pittsburgh is on a short week and I will give the points and still take the Colts.

Green Bay Packers +1 at New Orleans Saints
The Packers have been cruising while the Saints are not that good.

Dallas Cowboys -10 v. Washington Redskins
Double digit spread in a division game is a lot.  Double digit spread in a divisional game on prime time seems ridiculous.  That is why I am going to take it.  Well, that and Colt McCoy starting for the Redskins.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Baltimore Ravens pick 'em at Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens have been solid while the Bengals have not.  Frankly, I am a bit surprised that the Ravens are not giving points this game.

Previous Week's Record: 8-7
Year to Date: 56-49-1
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Beat Year to Date: 5-2
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: ($135)
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $630