Week four is upon us, which means it is now times for my "Picks of the Week" during a bye week. A bye week just means that every loss is that much more crucial when it comes to losing money. Thus, much care must be taken in deciding which teams to pick. Even given that, I am coming off a fantastic week, and I look to keep the momentum going forward. Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.
Washington Whatever Name They Are Going to Be Called Soon - 3 1/2 v. New York Giants
Both teams played much, much better last week, but the difference is Washington seems to look much more comfortable with Kirk Cousins playing quarterback. Defenses have to respect the passing game, and Alfred Morris, whereas nobody really respects Eli's ability to beat them.
Carolina Panthers +3 at Baltimore Ravens
I honestly cannot figure out the Ravens. They blew out the Steelers, but that was on a Thursday night. I'll take the points, especially since with each game, Cam Newton feels more and more comfortable with Kelvin Benjamin. A hodge-podge running back crew for the Panthers, but they were not going to rush for many yards against the Ravens anyway.
Chicago Bears + 1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
I really was not sure how to pick this game given my allegiance for the Bears, but the Packers are giving them points even while looking shaky on offense. The Bears defense has been opportunistic, and if they can continue to improve, this team could get really scary.
Houston Texans -3 v. Buffalo Bills
Neither the Texans nor the Bills are even remotely as good as they looked the first two weeks, but I think the Texans are a bit better overall, and a ton better defensively. Harvard boy Ryan Fitzpatrick will look to gain a little revenge against the last team for which he started.
Detroit Lions -1 at New York Jets
I do not generally like to pick road favorites, especially in close games, however, the Jets are on a short week and the playing against Calvin Johnson is not the most likely way to improve an already porous pass defense.
Oakland Raiders + 3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins (In London)
Neither team has looked very good this year, but the Raiders are coming off a close loss to the New England Patriots while the Dolphins were just manhandled by the Kansas City Chiefs. The Dolphins also decided to arrive in London later than the Raiders, so perhaps they might be a bit more jet lagged. You could tell me that the Raiders needed the extra time because they are even three time zones further away, but the Raiders never went back home after last week's game against the Patriots. Here is hoping that somewhere former Dolphins great Channing Crowder is reminiscing about knowing "London" Fletcher.
Pittsburgh Steelers -7 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
At the beginning of the season this line would have looked ludicrous, but the Buccaneers have looked horrible and Le'veon Bell has looked like the best running back in football. The Steelers are down a bunch of linebackers, but it is about time for Sean Spence to start playing some football.
Jacksonville Jaguars +13 at San Diego Chargers
The Jaguars are easily the worst team in football and they are on the road, but sometimes a change to a fresh, young quarterback is all a team needs to get going in the right direction, especially one that has looked so poised so far. They may not win, but I would hope they could keep this within two touchdowns.
Atlanta Falcons -3 at Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta's two high-flying wins have both been at home, but the Vikings play indoors, so Atlanta's speed and timing should not be affected. Our first official look at Teddy Bridgewater as a starter. Some talent there, but not as ready as Blake Bortles (see above).
Philadelphia Eagles +4 1/2 at San Francisco
San Francisco has looked erratic, especially offensively, and porous, especially defensively. The Eagles have won 3 close games so far, so there is no reason to expect that this will not also be a close one. When it's close, take the points.
Dallas Cowboys +3 v. New Orleans Saints
Everything about this game says that the Saints will win big, but for some reason I cannot get away from picking the Cowboys. The Cowboys are not great, mind you, but I do not believe the Saints are either. This could be similar to last week for Dallas where they go down early, and fight their way back.
New England Patriots -3 at Kansas City Chiefs
Another road favorite. The Patriots could very well be the AFC's version of the Saints, a team that may be getting by on reputation and may not actually be that good. That being said, with Jamaal Charles back, the Chiefs may work too hard at getting him his touches, which could focus the Patriots defense. May be a close game so it is difficult to give the points, but I will in this case.
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Indianapolis Colts -7 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis's 1-2 record is a bit deceiving in that their two losses came against Philadelphia and at Denver, two very good teams, and two games in which the Colts still looked pretty good. Tennessee's 1-2 record is also very deceiving in that they might not even be that good. I do not like giving up more than a touchdown in my big bet, but I do like going against a bad team starting Charlie Whitehurst at QB.
Year to Date: 25-23
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 2-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $490
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $105
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