The NFL is back, and so are my Picks of the Week. For those that have been following, this will be a quick refresher on the procedures behind my picks (for those that are new - this will be new): Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks. Although I did not have the chance to post them, I did do picks last week, going a pedestrian 8-8, but I did win my lock, with the Lions giving points to the Giants the easiest pick on the board.
Pittsburgh + 2 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
Always take the points in this rivalry. I expect it to be close, so I will take them again.
Miami Dolphins pick 'em at Buffalo Bills
The fact that the Dolphins have no more linebackers would usually scare me, but I still think their defensive front line is enough to contain the Bills running game and scare E.J. Manuel.
Detroit Lions + 2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Carolina's defense is good, but the Lions offense is scary. Golden Tate adds such a dimension to the team, freeing up Calvin Johnson even more. If Cam Newton and Kelvin Benjamin develop some good chemistry, watch out, but for now, I'll take the Lions getting points.
Cincinnati Bengals -5 v. Atlanta Falcons
I chalk up the Falcons win last week to being at home and playing a familiar divisional rival. Their lack of a running game should hurt them against a potentially outstanding Bengals defense. I don't see the Falcons being able to stop the Bengals enough either.
Minnesota Vikings +3 v. New England Patriots
This could be overreacting to week 1, but Minnesota looks like a solid contender this year. Are the Patriots on the descent? I say yes!
Arizona Cardinals - 2 1/2 at New York Giants
Normally I never select a west coast team travelling to the east coast to play the early game, but the Giants are just that bad. The Cardinals will miss the loss of Darnell Dockett considerably, but not against the Giants.
Dallas Cowboys + 3 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
I just feel that this line is a bit of an overreaction from last week's games. Although it is true that the Cowboys cannot exactly stop anybody, the Titans are not exactly an offensive juggernaut. The Cowboys can score, so getting extra points feels like the right call.
Jacksonville Jaguars + 5 1/2 at Washington Whatever Their New Name is Going to Be
Not exactly a fun game to look forward to. I think that the Jaguars defensive line and Paul Posluzny might be the best grouping on the field, so I will take the Jaguars.
Seattle Seahawks -6 at San Diego Chargers
I am selecting Seattle until the prove me otherwise.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 v. St. Louis Rams
Another yawner. The Rams look really, really bad. Their defensive line was pretty strong, but the Chris Long is out 8 weeks or so, even that strength is weakening. I wonder if the wish that they had kept Michael Sam on the practice squad.
Denver Broncos - 11 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
I think the Chiefs are tremendously overrated, and with the loss of Derrick Johnson for the season, it is going to be hard to stop the Broncos offense. It might be hard just to stop Julius Thomas, and the fact that Emmanuel Sanders brings some speed that the Broncos did not possess last year makes this team scary.
New York Jets +9 at Green Bay Packers
The Packers were dismantled last week, but that was the Seahawks. But, Eddie Lacy suffered a concussion, and he is a large part of what makes the Packers go. If the Jets can just play tough, they should keep this under 9 points.
Houston Texans -3 at Oakland Raiders
Derek Carr looks like he is going to be good, but who is going to run the ball for this team? The Texans should have a bounce back year.
Chicago Bears +7 at San Francisco 49ers
The Bears can certainly score, and if they can hold on to the football, this should be a much more interesting game than last year's debacle. San Francisco is the second best team in the league, but their offense is efficient, not outstanding, so a 7 point game is not unreasonable.
Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Indianapolis Colts
So it took a half for the Eagles to get rolling, but this team can score, and score in bunches. The Colts played admirably in their comeback against the Broncos, but I don't see them outscoring the Eagles by more than a filed goal.
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
New Orleans Saints - 6 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
The Saints can still score, and Joe Haden cannot guard every single wide receiver and Jimmy Graham. I still don't know what the Browns have this year. I wanted to pick the Arizona game, but the unknown quantity that is Andre Ellington prevented me from making it my guarantee.
Year to Date: 8-8
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 1-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $70
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $70
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