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This year has been B-R-U-T-A-L!!! Just horrific. Nobody I know that picks every game each week - as opposed to only betting on select games - is having a good year. It is ridiculous. But, hopefullly the year has started to settle a bit, and all we can do is learn from the first quarter of the season - and hope that the season itself doesn't change from here. I am putting this together early, so I hope that any late-week injuries and/or announcements don't affect things TOO much, but I am off to Austin to watch the UF-UT game this weekend. Also, we have another early game on Sunday in London!!! Shcoker - Jacksonville is playing!!!
A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Both teams enter this game 3-2, with one loss for each of the teams to the San Francisco 49ers. Denver's offense has been putrid (31st overall/26th scoring) and Seattle's defense is amazing (1st overall and passing/3rd in third-down/8th in scoring) but, have to go home team on a short week with Seattle coming off a brutally difficult game against San Francisco last week - especially since I am GETTING points.
Jacksonville Jaguars - 2 1/2 v. Houston Texans (London - Wembley Stadium)
A de facto home game for the Jaguars as they played in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last week. I am assuming that being in London for the last week and a half will play to an advantage over a struggling team that just traveled this week. But, do not let the records fool you, the metrics show Houston to be much, much better than a 1-4 team, except they cannot run the ball (31st).
Chicago Bears -1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
This pick is based solely on the fact that I expect Caleb Williams to play this week and I also expect Michael Penix, Jr. to be hobbled (if he plays at all - which I suspect he will).
Tennessee Titans +7 at Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee is bad. Like legendarily bad. But if one thing can help cure the league's worst offense (32nd total/32nd scoring/31st passing/27th rushing), it is playing a really bad defense (28th total/28th passing/27th scoring/27th rushing). I expect the Colts to win, but it should be within a touchdown.
Carolina Panthers -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
Both teams are really bad defensively (Carolina 29th/Philadelphia 23rd in total defense), but only Carolina is proficient offensively (2nd in total offense/2nd passing/4th scoring offense), and they expect to have Jalen Coker available, making the offense that much more potent, since the defense - which is 26th against the pass - cannot solely focus on Tet McMillan.
Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A second straight road favorite? Ugh!!! But, Pittsburgh is better, and I cannot give Tampa Bay too much credit for a win against the Dallas Cowboys. At least this isn't an intra-divisional game!!!
Baltimore Ravens -5 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
But, didn't you just say ...? Yes, I did. I know what I said. And I even typed out "Cleveland Browns +5 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens." But I couldn't stick with it even though I despise taking road intra-divisional favorites. I have to expect that Lamar Jackson will be close to his normal self, or else the Ravens wouldn't risk further injury to him as they sit at 4-1. Right?
New York Giants +1 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
Do I like this pick? No. Can I pick 4 consecutive road favorites? Also no! Is it weird that a 1-4 teams is favored against a team that is 3-1-1? Heck Yeah. But for a reason. I feel that New Orleans is better, but they will do something that keeps the Giants in this game. Maybe a tie, maybe New Orleans wins by 1. Either way, I will take it.
New York Jets +7 1/2 at New England Patriots
The Patriots are rolling right now, and they WILL win this game. But division rivalry games are a real thing, and I can see a Geno Smith to Garrett Wilson touchdown late in the last quarter giving the Jets a 28-21 loss.
Arizona Cardinals +12 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
This is A LOT of points to give up in an NFL game, especially when the team giving up the points is only 20th in scoring defense! Plus, this is a short week for the Rams, in which they lost an absolute heartbreaker in overtime!!!
Los Angeles Chargers +8 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Do I believe the Chargers will lose? Yes. Do I believe that the firing of Jim Harbaugh is imminent? Also yes. But this team has too much talent to lose by 8 in an intra-divisional game, right? Justin Herbert cannot keep playing this badly.
Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders
I firmly believe that despite their great start, the Raiders have come back down to earth. And after this walloping, they have the Rams next week. I know this is a short week for Buffalo, but I just could not pull the trigger on Vegas.
Green Bay Packers -1 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
If we get the Packers from their first 4 weeks of the season; we lose this bet. If we get the Packers from last week; we win this bet easily. If we get the Cowboys, we win this bet.
San Francisco 49ers -7 1/2 v. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels horrific scramble with no time left doesn't happen if he had played more than 3 games in the last 3 years [Ed. Note - Exaggeration!] Has nothing to do with this week's pick, just thought it merited mentioning.
Bye Weeks: Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Green Bay Packers -1 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
If we get the Packers from their first 4 weeks of the season; we lose this bet. If we get the Packers from last week; we win this bet easily. If we get the Cowboys, we win this bet.
I hate waiting until Sunday night's result for my Big Bet, but this seems like the best bet on the board, especially if the shellacking of the Bears is the start of an upward trajectory for the Packers. Plus, Dallas is 30th in Total defense, and 28th in scoring defense (including last against the run).
Results:
Last Week Record: 6-8-1
Last Week Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 32-42-5
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 1-4
Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($445)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($1,930)
