Super Bowl Sunday is here - and it's about time that this travesty of a football season - gambling-wise anyway - is coming to an end. That doesn't mean that there isn't some opportunity to cut into my huge losses for the year. Hopefully we can find some really good prop bets to be successful, since I don't have any idea of what is going to happen in the game.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Kansas City Chiefs -1 versus Philadelphia Eagles
This line is really close, and has actually moved in Philadelphia's favor since it opened as Kansas City -1 1/2. Two tough teams that have been among the best in the NFL for the entire year. In fact, this seems like the year to really bet on Philadelphia. First of all, these two teams met two years ago, with Kansas City winning 38-35, scoring near the end after what some people consider a controversial pass-interference penalty. [Ed. Note = it was totally pass interference.] This Philadelphia team is much, much better with Saquon Barkley running the ball and Jalen Carter becoming a dominant force on the interior defensive line. But, and this is a really big butt, Kansas City is Kansas City, despite seemingly having dropped off performance-wise this year. It must be nice to go 15-2 during a "down" season. First of all, they have Patrick Mahomes. As was shared with me earlier today about Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, etc. "Everybody better than Mahomes til it's time to be better than Mahomes." Second, the Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid. And Reid, is among the best overall, and there are none better with two weeks to prepare. Reid's teams are 32-7 with two weeks to prepare for a game. 32-7!!! That is astronomical!!!
Kansas City Chiefs -118 versus Philadelphia Eagles (Bet $118 to win $100)
This would be a perfect hedge, except for one thing, the Eagles are only even money. That isn't enough to make a difference on the season, so if I think KC is going to win at -1, then I have to take them for the moneyline. Plus, two more stats involving rematches in the Super Bowl. This is the fifth rematch between coaches (Andy Reid and Nick Sirianni). In all 4 previous coaching rematches, the previous winning coach won the subsequent Super Bowl. This is also the fourth rematch between quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts). In each of the three previous rematches, the initial winning quarterback won the rematch.
Kansas City Chiefs versus Philadelphia Eagles OVER 48 1/2
I honestly thought that I was going to select the under up until the moment I just made my pick given that Kansas City is 4th in scoring defense and Philadelphia is 2nd. But, do we really think that these two teams are going to average 24 points each or less? I do not. If both these teams reach their scoring averages for the season, they hit the over.
Now, on to the props!!!
Jon Batiste National Anthem OVER 120 1/2 seconds
Only 14 performances of the National Anthem have lasted two minutes or longer since 1990 (less than half), but 7 of the last 11 have lasted that long. And with Batiste not only singing the national anthem, but likely also playing the piano accompaniment, I feel strong that this could go over, especially if he draws out "home of the brave".
Jalen Hurts Any Time Touchdown -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)
If Philly gets into a goal line situation, the Tush Push, or Brotherly Shove will almost certainly be succseeful.
Travis Kelce OVER 60.5 yars -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)
Kelce has hit this number in 14 of 15 career playoff games since 2020.
Dallas Goedert/Xavier Worthy 50/50 Parlay +165 (Bet $100 to win $165)
This bet is for both players to gain more than 50 receiving yards.
Dallas Goedert Over 4 1/2 receipts -137 (Bet $137 to win $100)
Kansas City averages giving up 6 receiptions per game to tight ends.
Xavier Worthy Any Time Touchdown +165 (Bet $100 to win $165)
Given Worthy's importance to this offense, and it seems that Mahomes has been looking for Worthy more and more.
Fourth-Down Conversions OVER 2 1/2 +120 (Bet $100 to win $120)
These teams take a lot of chances.
Longest Field Goal Made OVER 47 1/2 -105 (Bet $105 to win $100)
Harrison Butker has made three of the eleven field goals over 49 yards in Super Bowl history.
Total Sacks Under 5 1/2 -145 (Bet $145 to win $100)
Two very mobile and poised quarterbacks who are also smart enough to throw the ball away. They combined for two sacks just two years ago.
DeAndre Hopkins OVER 1 1/2 receptions +105 (Bet $100 to win $105)
It just feels like Kansas City has been waiting for him to break out. What better time than the Super Bowl.
Noah Gray OVER 11 1/2 receiving yards -120 (Bet $120 to win $100)
Gray averages 10.9 yards per catch, so two catches and this should be easy.
Noah Gray Any Time Touchdown +500 (Bet $100 to win $500)
A good percentage of Gray's targets this year came inside the 20-yard line, and his 5 TDs and great hands make him a favorite target of Mahomes near the endzone.
Big Bets:
Kansas City Chiefs -1 versus Philadelphia Eagles
This line is really close, and has actually moved in Philadelphia's favor since it opened as Kansas City -1 1/2. Two tough teams that have been among the best in the NFL for the entire year. In fact, this seems like the year to really bet on Philadelphia. First of all, these two teams met two years ago, with Kansas City winning 38-35, scoring near the end after what some people consider a controversial pass-interference penalty. [Ed. Note = it was totally pass interference.] This Philadelphia team is much, much better with Saquon Barkley running the ball and Jalen Carter becoming a dominant force on the interior defensive line. But, and this is a really big butt, Kansas City is Kansas City, despite seemingly having dropped off performance-wise this year. It must be nice to go 15-2 during a "down" season. First of all, they have Patrick Mahomes. As was shared with me earlier today about Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, etc. "Everybody better than Mahomes til it's time to be better than Mahomes." Second, the Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid. And Reid, is among the best overall, and there are none better with two weeks to prepare. Reid's teams are 32-7 with two weeks to prepare for a game. 32-7!!! That is astronomical!!!
Kansas City Chiefs versus Philadelphia Eagles OVER 48 1/2
I honestly thought that I was going to select the under up until the moment I just made my pick given that Kansas City is 4th in scoring defense and Philadelphia is 2nd. But, do we really think that these two teams are going to average 24 points each or less? I do not. If both these teams reach their scoring averages for the season, they hit the over.
Jon Batiste National Anthem OVER 120 1/2 seconds
Only 14 performances of the National Anthem have lasted two minutes or longer since 1990 (less than half), but 7 of the last 11 have lasted that long. And with Batiste not only singing the national anthem, but likely also playing the piano accompaniment, I feel strong that this could go over, especially if he draws out "home of the brave".
Jalen Hurts Any Time Touchdown -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)
If Philly gets into a goal line situation, the Tush Push, or Brotherly Shove will almost certainly be succseeful.
Record
Last Week's Record: 2-4
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 151-146-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 10-13
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($405)
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1,907.65)
