For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, I know all about Patrick Mahomes 10-1-1 record against the spread in the playoffs, and how four years ago he turned a 10 point deficit into an 11 point victory against San Francisco for his first Super Bowl win by scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, but this San Francisco defense is older and better, and Kansas City's offense is not as smooth as they have been in the past. The most encouraging point for Kansas City - besides knowing how to win and having Patrick Mahomes - Kadarius Toney will not be playing!!!!
San Francisco 49ers -120 over Kansas City Chiefs (Bet $120 to win $100)
This is simple math; if I think that San Francisco will win as a favorite, and when the money line is this close (Kansas City's best bet is +110), then I have to take San Francisco with the money line. If this doesn't work out - then I have to hope the prop bets come in!
Kansas City Chiefs v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 47 1/2
The one thing we know about these teams is that they can score against anybody. San Francisco was third in the NFL this year, and despite being 15th, Kansas City is, well, Kansas City. Yes both of their defenses are stingy (SF 3rd in points allowed; KC 2nd), but do you honestly believe that 1 touchdown a quarter for each team isn't possible, especially when neither the players nor the coaches will be especially nervous? Plus, it is way more interesting in betting the over than the under.
Now on to the prop bets!
Reba McIntyre National Anthem OVER 89.5 seconds (+102 - Bet $100 to win $102)
So, I almost always take the under under for the anthem, but the last two years three years that number has been at 2:00 or over. For Reba, the number is under 1 1/2 minutes - which I have to take.
San Francisco 49ers OVER 6 1/2 players to catch a pass (Even Money)
So San Francisco likes to spread the ball around. It feels like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, and Kyle Jusczcyzk will all catch a pass, so this relies upon Elijah Mitchell - or somebody else - to catch one also.
Elijah Mitchell OVER 1 1/2 Rushing Attempts (+110 - Bet $100 to Win $110)
Speaking of Elijah Mitchell, he has a chance to make bettors some real money here. Now of course the offense will be focused on Christian McCaffrey, but he is going to have some breaks - and Mitchell is more than solid. Plus, he had 4 carries against Detroit.
Dre Greenlaw UNDER 8 1/2 tackles (-135 - Bet $135 to win $100)
Greenlaw only hit over 8 tackeles in 5 games this year, but Kansas City will likely pass more than the teams San Francisco played this year. So this seems like a good bet to me, especially with Fred Warner playing next to him.
George Karlaftis OVER .25 sacks (+110 - Bet $100 to win $110)
His motor never stops, and this prop bet gives us the opportunity to win with only 1/2 a sack. Plus, Purdy seems more likely to be sacked than Mahomes (although Purdy is way more mobile than for which he is given credit.)
Longest Successful Field Goal - OVER 46 1/2 yards (+102 - Bet $100 to win $102)
Teams do not score a lot of points without hitting some lengthy field goals. Harrison Butker would be my best bet to do this, but I wouldn't put it past either team. With great defenses playing, you have to score points whenever you have the opportunity.
Nick Bosa OVER 1 1/2 solo tackles (-160 - Bet $160 to win $100)
Another player whose motor never stops, and he is 50% more motivated than George Karlaftis is. (IYKYK).
Nick Bosa Over .25 sacks (-115 - Bet $115 to win $100)
Nick Bosa will get a sack.
Nick Bosa OVER .75 sacks (Even Money)
Nick Bosa will get a sack. This concludes the Nick Bosa Section of our betting).
Patrick Mahomes -16 1/2 yards v. Brock Purdy
Purdy relies more on the running game than Mahomes will, I think, so I expect Mahomes will throw for a significant amount more yards than Purdy does.
San Francisco 49ers v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 44 1/2 Pass completions
I expect both players to throw a lot, and be very accurate.
Deebo Samuel + 3 1/2 yards on his first carry
The Forty-Niners like to utilize Deebo in the rush game, and I think his first carry will net at least 4 yards.
Harvard alumnus wins the Super Bowl OVER 1/2
Not a real prop bet, but just a way for me to mention that each team has a Harvard alumnus on their squad - Truman Jones on Kansas City and Kyle Juszczyk on San Francisco.
Big Bet:
San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, I know all about Patrick Mahomes 10-1-1 record against the spread in the playoffs, and how four years ago he turned a 10 point deficit into an 11 point victory against San Francisco for his first Super Bowl win by scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, but this San Francisco defense is older and better, and Kansas City's offense is not as smooth as they have been in the past. The most encouraging point for Kansas City - besides knowing how to win and having Patrick Mahomes - Kadarius Toney will not be playing!!!!
Honestly, other than Mahomes, San Francisco has the majority of the true offensive weapons in today's game: McCaffrey, Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle, versus Kelce, with Pacheco and Rice getting there. I'll take the weapons.
Elijah Mitchell OVER 1 1/2 Rushing Attempts (+110 - Bet $100 to Win $110)
Speaking of Elijah Mitchell, he has a chance to make bettors some real money here. Now of course the offense will be focused on Christian McCaffrey, but he is going to have some breaks - and Mitchell is more than solid. Plus, he had 4 carries against Detroit.
I see Mitchell getting 4 to 5 carries this game.
Record
Last Week's Record: 1-3
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Playoffs' Record: 16-8
Playoffs' Big Bet: 3-1
Year-to-Date Record: 160-122-14
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 10-12
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($395)
Playoffs' Winnings (Losses): $1,155
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,250
