Picks of the Week

Well, my major winning streak ends at 1.  A super roller coaster start to the season.  That means this week should be good, right?  Since I am visiting the President's Cup, I don't have much time to think, nay overthink, my picks, so hopefully that is a good sign.  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Cleveland Browns -4 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Finally a Thursday night win!

Chicago Bears -3 v. Houston Texans

I don't like this bet at all, but the Bears are never worse than when playing against Aaron Rodgers.  Rodgers is not on the Texans.

Detroit Lions +6 at Minnesonta Vikings

Minnesota should win this game.  But, Detroit is going to be a tough out for everybody this year!

Baltimore Ravens -3 at New England Patriots

Gotta take some road favorites, and New England's offense is nowhere near as explosive as Miami's.  Look for Baltimore to take an early lead and not give it away!

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Honestly, this pick is because I am not sure if Jameis Winston will play, and if he does, whether he will be effective due to injury.

Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

This is probably the week that the Colts remember they have Jonathan Taylor on their team, so take this pick with a grain of salt, but until they do, Kansas City for sure.

Washington Commanders +6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are much better than the Commanders and will win this game.  However, Washington has been able to move the ball themselves, so I look for a closer game than most.

Miami Dolphins +4 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

If you play defensive back, please give the Buffalo Bills a call as they have virtually nobody healthy at that position.  Oh yeah, that is the position that would cover Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

New York Jets +6 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati is giving up too many points considering they have done nothing but disappoint so far this season.  Could they regain the form from the end of last season?  Of course they could.  But, I am not betting on it.

Las Vegas Raiders -2 at Tennesee Titans

Everybody that follows this blog should know my rule against betting for west coast teams travelling to the east coast and playing the early game (the fail to cover approximately 2/3 of the time.)  Good thing Nashville is in the central time zone.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This line opened at double digits earlier this week.  If the line has fallen that much, there is no way that Justin Herbert is playing, and maybe Keenan Allen misses too!

Atlanta Falcons +1 at Seattle Seahawks

This is an awful, awful game.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

At some point in time the Rams offense has to pick up, right?

Green Bay Packers +1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Honestly, neither Aaron Rodgers nor Tom Brady has any idea who is going to be catching passes in this game.

San Francisco 49ers -1 at Denver Broncos

Denver has yet to impress anyone this year, and the 49ers offense seems to run more smoothly with Jimmy Garoppolo.

New York Giants -1 v. Dallas Cowboys

Why not?  Does this game actually count for something?

Big Bet:

Baltimore Ravens -3 at New England Patriots

Gotta take some road favorites, and New England's offense is nowhere near as explosive as Miami's.  Look for Baltimore to take an early lead and not give it away!

My rule - Always pick a home team for the big bet, and try to pick one getting points.  Way to not follow your own rules!

Last Week's Record:  4-11-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  16-15-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($810) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $100

Picks of the Week

Wow - What a start to the season.  For some of the teams and players at least - and ME!!!  Now way I can keep this pace up, but it sure is good to start off with a BANG!!!  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 v. Los Angeles Chargers

A very good home team getting points in the opening weekend?  I'll take them.  We saw how that turned out!  Ugh.  Two weeks in a row now.  Maybe it is an omen?

New York Giants -1 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I never would have guessed this pick before the season started, but the Giants ran the ball very well last week, and Carolina couldn't stop the run.  Yes, it was the Browns who run the ball at every opportunity, but so can Saquon.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. New England Patriots

Nothing I saw from the Patriots last week makes me think they should be a favorite on the road.  If Belichick wasn't the coach, this would be my big bet.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Saints have owned the Buccaneers since Tom Brady moved to Tampa.  I know this means the streak will probably stop here, but I have to ride this streak as long as I can.

Cleveland Browns -6 1/2 v. New York Jets

Joe Flacco showed that he can still fling it during a blowout loss.  Let's see if he can do that two weeks in a row.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

I have a feeling that this pick could sneak up on a lot of people.  Could be a determinative game for how the season can ultimately go for both teams.  Until Miami proves me otherwise, I am picking the Ravens.

Washington Commanders pick 'em at Detroit Lions

Detroit plays tough, and if DeAndre Swift can be healthy all year, Detroit will win more games than people expect.  But, with Washington, I have to go back to their defensive line with Carson Wentz making just enough more plays than Jared Goff.

Indianapolis Colts -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville played the Commanders close last week, but they could not get off the field on third down, stopping their opponents on that crucial down only 30% of the time.  That doesn't bode well for a team with Jonathan Taylor.  If the Colts stay on the field, he will break one.

Los Angeles Rams -10 v. Atlanta Falcons

Already in the season and we have a double-digit spread.  The Rams will really WANT this win after being decimated by the Buffalo Bills on opening night.  I look for them to score early and often, getting both Allen Robinson and Van Jefferson involved in the passing game.  Is this Desmond Ridder watch on?  No offense to Marcus Mariota, but it should be.

San Francisco 49ers -9 v. Seattle Seahawks

Be careful not to read too much into last week's games.  The weather in Chicago was atrocious.  San Francisco probably will not look that bad again this week.  And, good win by Seattle, but neither the Seahawks or the Broncos actually looked good on Monday night.  Seahawks on a short week, I'll take San Francisco.

Houston Texans +10 at Denver Broncos

Now, here is where I fall into the trap.  Denver did not look good and are on a short week.  Houston didn't look great either, but they played a tough team really tough - and didn't lose.  Makes for an easy bet when it is double digits.  I don't like this bet because Matt Ryan carved up the Texans' pass defense last week, and Russell Wilson did the same to Seattle.  I am taking Houston, but only because it is 10 points.  C'mon Lovie!

Las Vegas Raiders -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Raiders looked lively in their week 1 loss to the Chargers, who are an AFC champion-caliber team.  Arizona was annihilated by the Chiefs, which could happen to a bunch of teams this year.  I still think even at full strength the Raiders are better - Davante Adams means that much.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 at Dallas Cowboys

Nobody knows what we are getting from Cooper Rush, but we do know what we are getting from the rest of the Dallas team.  Cincinnati wins going away, despite giving up 4 sacks.

Chicago Bears +10 at Green Bay Packers

Giving up ten points against a division rival, when you have nobody that is able to catch the ball?  A frustrated Aaron Rodgers tour begins.

Buffalo Bills -10 v. Tennessee Titans

Coming off a bad loss to the New York Giants, instead of bouncing back, I think we may be seeing the limitations of this team.  Perhaps Malik Willis starts before Desmond Ridder?

Minnesota Vikings +2 1/2 at Philadephia Eagles

In perhaps the closest game of the weekend, I am just taking points.  No disrespect to the Eagles, but it was that close for me.

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. New England Patriots

Getting points at home against a very pedestrian team.  Can you believe this, two weeks in a row betting big on Mitchell Trubisky?

Last Week's Record:  12-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  12-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $910 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $910

Picks of the Week

The NFL is back!!!!  That means that the newest installment of my NFL picks of the week is also back!!!  Yes, this can be humiliating at times, rewarding at others, but for those of you that do or don't like some of my picks, just know it is A LOT more difficult when you force yourself to do EVERY game, and not pick-and-choose the ones you think are the easiest bets.  And with that, I am very much looking forward to this year!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams +2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

A very good home team getting points in the opening weekend?  I'll take them.  We saw how that turned out!  Ugh.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is not a homer bet.  The Bears don't look to be a very good team by most prognostications, but do we really know what The 49ers have in Trey Lance?  No.  Do we know what the Bears have in Justin Fields?  Also know.  I'll take the almost touchdown.

Detroit Lions +5 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I have changed my mind many times on this game.  I think that Jalen Hurts has a chance to be VERY good, and now the Eagles have added A.J. Brown as a weapon on the outside.  But I keep remembering just how tough Detroit has played damn near everyone since Dan Campbell arrived as head coach, and they are at home.  Philadelphia may win, but Detroit keeps it close.

Houston Texans +7 v. Indianapolis Colts

Admittedly this is just a chance to continue the run of selecting home underdogs.  Colts still win, but this game has backdoor cover all over it.

Celveland Browns pick 'em Carolina Panthers

So, some road teams are going to win, right?  Might as well pick the one that doesn't have to give up points!  (And the one that has Nick Chubb AND Kareem Hunt!)  Baker will have a chip on his shoulder, but we won't really iknow what we are getting from Christian McCaffrey coming off his injury, and how Baker is going to gel with the receivers.

Washington Commanders -3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Damn it feels good to type that.  Even if it wasn't perhaps the best choice.  It beats having to type "Football Team" as well as "Racists" as in the past.  For that reason alone, and the fact that even with the Chase Young injury Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat make up the fiercest defensive line - meaning the entire line - in the NFL.

New England Patriots +3 at Miami Dolphins

Do I believe that the Dolphins are much improved, especially with the addition of Tyreek Hill?  Yes I do.  Do I also believe that Tuaniggamanuolepola Tagovailoa will also be improved with the confidence of the team and being the undisputed started?  Yes, I do.  Do I believe that these are the type of circumstances where Bill Belichick loves to screw with opposing teams, opposing coaches' minds, opposing fans, and also the betting lines?  Definitely.

Pittsburgh Steelers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, Cincinnati is coming off of a phenomenal playoff run.  Yes, the seem to have improved their number 1 weakness from last year, the offensive line.  But, seems doesn't block T.J. Watt, and Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati both times they played last year.  AND, it looks like Pittsburgh will have a more-than-competent quarterback this year.  (Did I just say that about Mitchell Trubisky?)

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 at New York Jets

I cannot pick all of the home underdogs, right?  On paper Lamar Jackson is just so much better than the New York Jets.  I mean, it isn't like the Ravens secretary is full of Zach Wilson's mom's friends!  Only question is where is Jackson's mindset after the team and Jackson could not come to terms on an extension.  I think Jackson will be out to prove that he is worth as much as any quarterback in the league.  Think about it, he is the only NFL MVP from the QB position to have won the award before he turned 23.

Atlanta Falcons + 5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

This bet seems too easy.  New Orleans all the way.  I hate this bet.  I cannot believe that I am putting it on "paper."  But, I have this feeling we might get to see Desmond Ridder, and Jameis Winston could always thrown 4 or 5 picks.  (He could also throw 4 or 5 interceptions too.)  Home divisional rival getting points.  God do I hate this pick.

Kansas City Chiefs -6 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Patrick Mahomes is undefeated in opening games, having thrown 13 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.  That continues today.  Arizona strengthened its WR corps by adding Marquise Brown, but DeAndre Hopkins is suspended and Rondale Moore is out.  Zach Ertz is also questionable.  Juju Smith-Schuster has an amazing game.

Tennessee Titans -5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Lots of bets against the Giants from me unless and until Saquon Barkley proves he can play a full complement of plays each-and-every game at the original Saquon Barkley level.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

What is a Romeo Doubs?  Still, I make this pick with trepidation as you can never be confident betting against Aaron Rodgers.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

How many sacks can Joey Bosa earn playing opposite Khalil Mack?  Robert Quinn had 18 1/2 last year.  Chargers are my early pick to win the AFC.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I have changed this pick 3 or 4 times.  I don't like the line.  I don't like trying to figure out how Tampa is going to be with apossibly still ailing Chris Godwin and an aging Julio Jones.  I do love the situation Cameron Brate finds himself in, though.  Six or 7 catches for him today!

Denver Broncos -6 1/2 at Seattle Seawhawks

Big number for a divisional rival - wait - they haven't been rivals for a long time.  And Seattle looks like they are going to stink!!!  I have no qualms about picking this road favorite.

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals

So, when selecting a big bet, I always try to find a home team, and either getting points or giving away a small number.  Lots of home teams getting points this week.  But, I found a game getting points on the road, but with a big number that stands out to me.  An intra-divisional rivalry in which the number is inflated because of Cincinnati's playoff run last year.  (They were not the best team in the AFC - they just got hot at the right time.)  And although Cincinnati may have improved, it looks like Pittsburgh did as well.  Watch for George Pickens' to have his coming-out party, if not this week, then soon!!!

Last Week's Record:  6-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0

Year-to-Date Record:  0-0

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):