The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under. This allows 12 picks for the weekend. I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100. Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
We can bet that Atlanta-native Gladys is going to want to really put this one out there for all to remember, especially given all of the pressure for her not to sing over solidarity with Colin Kaepernick.
Tom Brady OVER 350 yards passing +$229 (Bet $100 to win $229)
Brady has thrown for 900 yards each of the last two Super Bowls, and the act that the Patriots have been running with Sony Michel gives this bet extra value. But as great as Michel has been, Belichick is going to rely on Brady when it comes down to a win or lose scenario.
Touchdowns in the first half OVER 1 1/2
As you might recall, last year the teams scored 4 touchdowns in the first half.
Sony Michel Rushing Yards - OVER 80.5
He has gone for over 100 in 3 of his last four games, including in both playoff games. Despite the names on the Rams defensive line, they have not been sufficient run stoppers this year.
Brandin Cooks Receiving Yards OVER 70.5
With the Rams using a 2-headed backfield of Gurley and C.J. |Anderson, I expect Belichick will try to take away Los Angeles's running game. Although Stephon Gilmore has been amazing this year, Cooks could easily get over 70+ yards, whether the Rams are effective offensively or not.
Roughing the passer penalty will Occur +$105 (Bet $100 to win ($105)
It is called the Tom Brady rule, after all.
Total Touchdowns for the Patriots OVER 2 1/2
Total Touchdowns for the Rams OVER 2/12
Should be some good scoring in this game.
Successful Field Goals in the first Half OVER 1/2 -450 (Bet $450 to win $100)
There has to be at least one field goal, right?
New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
I just feel that the Patriots are better. Even though C.J. Anderson has been a revelation, the fact that it seems like the Rams game plan no longer focuses on Todd Gurley might actually hurt them. Plus, Belichick knows a bit about defense and is likely to concentrate on shutting the running game down anyway. I bet against the Patriots two years ago when Atlanta choked away the win. I bet against them last year when I just thought Philadelphia was better. I do think New Orleans is better, but they are not here. So, the Pats rarely lose when they are better, and often win when they are not.
New England Patriots -130 v. Los Angeles Rams (Bet $130 to win $100)
If I think the Patriots are going to cover the spread, then I definitely think they are going to win outright. Plus, I think only one Super Bowl has been decided by under 3 points, if I can believe the sports site I was reading earlier. Rams just are not ready yet.
New England Patriots v. Los Angeles Rams OVER 55 1/2
I foresee lots of points being scored in this one.
Big Bet
Successful Field Goals in the first Half OVER 1/2 -450 (Bet $450 to win $100)
There has to be at least one field goal, right?
Right?
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-0
Year-to-Date Record: 13-136-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($110)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1620)
