Picks of the Week

Last week was abhorrent.  Clearly it is time that I put some thought and analysis into my picks, rather than just winging it.  Although by the time the games start tomorrow, I will likely have had several wings.

Detroit Lions -6 v. Green Bay Packers
The interior of the defensive line of the Lions (Suh and Fairley) have to be salivating at having to chase Matt Flynn instead of Aaron Rodgers.  Just too much offensive firepower for the Packers to compete with during a short week.

Dallas Cowboys -9 v. Oakland Raiders
Again, because of the short week I am taking the Cowboys.  With a full week of preparation, Matt McGloin might be ready, but Thanksgiving games are a different story.  Witten and Bryant with a couple of touchdowns each.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Baltimore Ravens
Although neither of these teams are as good as they have been for the past decade or so, this is an interesting intra-divisional game with both teams jockeying for playoff positioning.  The Steelers are streaking, and Roethlisberger has settled into a tremendous groove with Antonio Brown.  Plus, they are getting points in what is likely to be a close game.

Carolina Panthers -8 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina is hot right now, but so are the Buccaneers.  Cam Newton's statistics are down tremendously this year, however, this is by far his best year of play, and it shows in the Panthers' record.  He is spreading the ball around.  Mike Glennon is starting to settle in nicely, and has a great connection with Vincent Jackson, but Carolina's defense will be the story.

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 at Cleveland Browns
Maurice Jones-Drew is starting to resemble his former self.  Meanwhile, Cleveland is starting Brandon Weedon.  Joe Haden of the Browns is the best cornerback in football, but that does not matter when playing a team with no true receiver to have to stop.

Tennessee Titans +4 at Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee is getting points from a team that is completely different from the squad that beat the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos.  Andrew Luck, and this entire offense, just has not been the same since Reggie Wayne was injured, and Trent Richardson brought nowhere near the the running game that was expected from him.  The Colts are physical, but the Titans relish such play.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
The Bears can score points.  That may be it at this point, but they can score points.  The Vikings secondary is suspect, and Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey and Martellus Bennett have been exploiting even good defensive teams.

Miami Dolphins + 1/2 at New York Jets
Really, the Dolphins are getting points?

Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. Arizona Cardinals
I just don't trust the Arizona Cardinals.  It isn't that I trust the Eagles more, but just a feeling that the Cardinals have to come down to earth sometime, right?  Nick Foles does seem to be hitting his stride, and although the Cardinals corners have been playing tremendously (if you don't believe me just ask them - especially Patrick Peterson), but the Cardinals spread it around to a lot of different players.  Call this one a hunch.

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at Houston Texans
You should know by now how much I hate taking road favorites, but with that being said we all saw what the Patriots did to the Broncos Sunday night.  The Texans are nowhere close to being the Broncos.

Buffalo Bills -3 v. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are a train wreck.  The Bills, at the very least, play with some fire.

St. Louis Rams +8 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
The Rams always play their divisional foes tough.  San Francisco is playing a lot tougher lately, and the offense, especially the passing game, is starting to explode.  But, the Rams should keep this close with their defensive line leading the way to slow the 49ers, and their running game trying to keep Kaepernick, et. al. off the field.

Denver Broncos -4 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Denver scored enough to beat the Chiefs when they had Justin Houston and Tamba Ali - their two stud defensive ends.  Now those two are out.  Plus, Denver has to be pissed at the outcome of last week's game against the Patriots.  I look for this one to turn into a rout.

New York Giants -1 at Washington Redskins
The Redskins are a train wreck right now.  Although the Giants are not exactly good, they are better than at the beginning of the season, and they look to be gaining some momentum.  Their running attach behind Andre Brown and a resurrected Brandon Jacobs should wear down the Redskins, with Victor Cruz getting open for a couple of deep plays.

New Orleans Saints + 5 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
This is a tough line, as Seattle looks like the best team in the league again.  However, New Orleans will not be intimidated because of a loud stadium, as they play in what is likely the second loudest.  I honestly think the Saints can win this game outright, so I will definitely take the points.

BIG BET

Cincinnati Bengals + 1 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
I would have reluctantly picked the Bengals giving  1 1/2 points, and I checked to see if their was a mistake in the line, but no, the Bengals are getting points.  The week off should have recharged Dalton, Bernard and Green, and they should take advantage of the Chargers.  San Diego is hit-or-miss this year in games, and they do not want to get into a shootout with Cincinnati, as they will surely lose.  Plus, who is going to guard A.J. Green?  I wanted to take the Giants here, but I hate making the Thursday, Sunday or Monday night games my big bet.

Last Week's Record: 5-9
Year To Date Record:  73-78-6
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Big Bet Year To Date: 7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($340)
Year-To-Date Winnings (Losses): ($935)

Picks of the Week

I am travelling, so no time for analysis.  On to this week's selections.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens -4 v. New York Jets
Pittsburgh Steelers +1 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions -7 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Jacksonville Jaguars +10 at Houston Texans
Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2  v. San Diego Chargers
Carolina Panthers -4 1/2 at Miami Dolphins - Big Bet
Chicago Bears +1 1/2 at St. Louis Rams
Indianapolis Colts +3 at Arizona Cardinals
Oakland Raiders +1 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
Dallas Cowboys +3 at New York Giants
Denver Broncos -2 at New England Patriots
San Francisco 49ers - 4 1/2 at Washington Redskins


Last Week's Record: 6-6-2
Year To Date Record:  68-69-6
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Big Bet Year To Date:6-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $90
Year-To-Date Winnings (Losses): ($595)

Picks of the Week

Well, I thought I was having a tough year, but then I just saw that Bill Simmons is like 14 games under .500 - suddenly I do not feel so bad.  I am out of town, so my picks will contain no analysis today - sorry.

Tennessee Titans + 3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

New York Jets -1 at Buffalo Bills

Chicago Bears -3 v. Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland Browns + 5 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Houston Texans -9 v. Oakland Raiders

Jacksonville Jaguars -9 v. Arizona Cardinals

Philadelphia Eagles -4 v. Washington Redskins

Detroit Lions -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

San Diego Chargers -1 at Miami Dolphins

New Orleans Saints -3 v. San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks -12 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

New York Giants -4 v. Green Bay Packers

Kansas City Chiefs + 7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Carolina Panthers -3 v. New England Patriots

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 v. Atlanta Falcons

Last Week:  7-6-1
Year to Date:  62-63-4
Big Bet Last Week:  0-1
Big Bet Year to Date:  5-5
Winnings (Losses) Last Week:  ($175)
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date:  ($685)

Picks of the Week

Tough year, in which all sorts of craziness is happening.  But, we have fought tough through the first half, and I think we have this figured out.  Looking forward to a good second half run to get us back up in the black.

Minnesota Vikings +1 v. Washington Redskins
I didn't think I could truly pick Minnesota, but the Redskins defense is so awful, and Minnesota was at home.  I got lucky on this pick.

Seattle Seahawks -4 at Atlanta Falcons
Seattle is not the same team away from home, but the Falcons are not the same team that we thought they were as Super Bowl contenders coming into this season.  Roddy White might play, but his first game back he is welcomed by Richard Sherman.  Not the way to ease yourself back into the lineup.

Chicago Bears pick 'em v. Detroit Lions
The Bears defense is absolutely scary bad, but Reggie Bush is not the pound it out type of back that Eddie Lacy is.  Yes, Bush trounced the Bears defense earlier this year, but, the one plus with the young linebackers Bostic and Greene starting, is that they have more speed to cover backs out of the backfield.  Gulp - I hope!

Green Bay Packers + 1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
The list of the best Seneca's of all time:  (1) Seneca the Younger; (2) the Seneca Casino; (3) Seneca Tribe; (4) Seneca, South Carolina; (5) Seneca Falls Convention; and (6) Seneca Wallace.  That being said, the Eagles defense is horrible.  Expect 150 yards from Eddie Lacy.  Plus, there is no way that Nick Foles throws for 7 touchdowns in this game.

St. Louis Rams +9 at Indianapolis Colts
Zac Storey has resurrected the Rams running game, and although I do not have confidence that St. Louis will win, I do think they might be able to keep the ball moving enough to keep Andrew Luck off the field - and keep this game close.

New York Giants -7 v. Oakland Raiders
I have no faith in the Giants, and the Raiders have been serviceable this year but, I do have faith in the fact that west coast teams travelling east and playing at 1:00 almost never win.  (Please ignore my Seattle pick from above - as there are more issues at play than just travel).

Buffalo Bills +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
E.J. Manuel probably still feels that his job is threatened by Jameis Winston, so I look for him to play a pretty good game against a team that is a shell of their former selves.

Jacksonville Jaguars +13 at Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville has to cover at some point, don't they?

Carolina Panthers + 5 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers 
 Carolina is the hottest team not named Kansas City, Seattle or San Francisco.  The Panthers defense is playing phenomenally and this team can play with San Francisco.  San Francisco's team turned around when they realized that for Frank Gore to be good they had to utilize him.  This might be the best game of the day to watch.

Houston Texans +3 at Arizona Cardinals
Big blow for the Texans in losing Arian Foster for the year.  They do have a lot of talent at running back, and Case Keenum has been surprisingly dangerous - especially in throwing the long ball.  Andre Ellington has been a nice player for the Cardinals recently, but the Texans just have too much talent.

Denver Broncos - 7 at San Diego Chargers
When I think the Chargers are bad, they beat good teams.  When I think the Chargers might be good, they lose to bad teams.  Just ridiculous.  I am hoping that Denver just takes care of business today.

New Orleans Saints -6 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are unpredictable, and they definitely have the firepower to compete with the Saints, however the difference for the Saints will be their defense - which has played great this year.  The Cowboys secondary is suspect, and the Saints, adding Kenny Stills to all of their weapons, will score a ton against that secondary.

Miami Dolphins -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game is impossible, as it is hard to predict how these teams are going to play, especially how the Dolphins are going to gel after the Richie Incognito - Jonathan Martin situation.  I think the team rallies around Tannehill, at least this week.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals -1 at Baltimore Ravens
We know how I feel about road favorites, and here I just picked two of them in a row.  Until the Ravens realize that Ray Rice is a weapon, they are not playoff hopefuls.  Cincinnati talent wise is as good on both sides of the ball as any time in the league.  A.J. Green is the best non-Calvin Johnson receiver in the game.

Last Week:  7-6
Year to Date:  55-57-3
Big Bet Last Week:  0-1
Big Bet Year to Date:  5-4
Winnings (Losses) Last Week:  ($125)
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date:  ($510)

Picks of the Week

Welcome to our Picks of the Week.  For a quick refresher on the procedures behind my picks (for those that are new - this will be new): Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Miami Dolphins
Already over, but I still lost.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Road favorites are always tough, but c'mon - Jeff Tuel?

Carolina Panthers -7 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
Yes it may be because of injuries, but it is time that we see that the Falcons just are not very good this year.

Dallas Cowboys -9 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
The Cowboys, albeit shaky, are explosive on offense.  Other than Adrian Peterson, the Vikings are not.

New York Jets +6 v. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are not very good on the road, and the Jets defense is very good.  Could keep this game close, so I will take the points.

Tennessee Titans +3 at St. Louis Rams
Teams are 0-this year in covering the spread (and straight up even) the week after playing the Seahawks.

Oakland Raiders -1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles are in a complete tailspin.  LeSean McCoy was the NFL MVP for the first quarter of the year, but the team has plummeted since Vick's injuries.

Seattle Seahawks -14 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I cannot wait for that Tampa Bay - Jacksonville game to determine the worst in the league.  (They don't play each other - so no worries).

Cleveland Browns +2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Division games among not great teams are usually close, so I will take the points at home.

New England Patriots -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is just not very good, and the Patriots are starting to get healthy.

Houston Texans +2 v. Indianapolis Colts
The Texans gain a lot of yards per play.  Eventually that is going to turn into points.  The Colts may win, but this game should be close.

Chicago Bears +10 at Green Bay Packers
This is not a homer pick at all.  The only times the Bears beat Aaron Rodgers is on Monday nights.  I do not need the Bears to win this game, I need them to keep it in single digits.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Diego Chargers +1 at Washington Redskins
The Redskins pass defense is horrific, and Phillip Rivers seems rejuvenated.  With Danny Woodhead as an outlet receiver, Rivers does not have to force the ball into traffic anymore on the outside, keeping drives alive.

Year to Date: 48-51-3
Big Beat Year to Date: 5-3
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: ($385)