Stupid People #1

Once again, welcome to the first installment of what is sure to be a recurring topic on this blog - Stupid People.

I had to make a day trip to Tallahassee, Florida, which is about an hour and a half flight for me - via prop plane. Fly up - do what I have to do - and return to the Tallahassee Regional Airport for my return prop flight. Get through security in about 1.4 seconds, so I have some time to kill, well, at least enough for a beer. Lo and behold I find an Irish Pub in the airport. I sit down on one side of the bar, and the place is empty, just another 2 people on the other side of the horseshoe shaped bar, and an older bartendress that I will call Edith Bunker. Edith happily gives me a Sam Adams draft.

About 1/4 of the way through my beer, another gentleman walks in and sits about 3 stools from me at the bar. By this point the couple across the bar had left. Edith Bunker gives him a beer, and she starts the pretty typical chit chat about whether Mr. New Guy was going on a trip or flying home. As it turns out - he was flying home to Fort Lauderdale, but his company is based in Tallahassee so he travels there often. Turns out that he works for the state lottery. He happens to oversee the Broward, Dade and Monroe County offices for the lottery (that is Fort Lauderdale, Miami and the Keys). Mrs. Bunker then asks him why it seems all of the big lottery winners are from South Florida and not the northern part of the state.

Now, this is where I become interested in the conversation. I chime in, which I am wont to do, admittedly, and ask if I could take a guess. Now keep in mind, I do not KNOW the answer, but I had two pretty good guesses, which I proceeded to contribute. My guesses - 1) More people; and 2) More ticket sales. Not that I am thinking this is rocket science and I am some kind of genius (which may be true anyway), but these two guesses were correct.

Edith Bunker's response was that she still thinks that people in South Florida win the lottery more because the state conspires to help the poor Blacks and Hispanics that live there win. REALLY?! IS SHE SERIOUS? (She was.)

First of all, even if that were true, the studies suggest that lower income people play the lottery more than others, and thus are basically just throwing their money away. (Let's go out on a limb and assume for a minute that most people that play the lottery do not win). Perhaps Edith's conspiracy theory could be correct, but not because the State wants poor Blacks and Hispanics to win, but because if they win every so often, more Blacks and Hispanics would keep playing, thus actually keeping them impoverished.

Second, if the lottery system was to conspire to anything, wouldn't it simply be in the calculation of the prize money so that the State gets to keep more of the lottery purchases and less is paid out to the eventual winners?

Third, Leon County, Florida is 30+% black, and Tallahassee is about 34.2% black. Certainly not incredibly small percentages where the State wouldn't want to help poor Blacks there in addition to those in South Florida, if Edith Bunker's theory was correct. (Leon County is the county in which Tallahassee lies.)

Fourth, statistics would show that if more tickets are sold in a given geographic area, that over time, more winners will come from that geographic area. Please note, I computed no actual statistics of any kind in figuring this out, nor did I use any equations or algorithms. Nothing. I just watched Laszlo Hollyfeld do his own calculations, and even he undervalued the amount of prizes he would win. If you don't get the reference: (1) let us know, and we might help you out; or (2) shoot yourself. (Ed. Note - don't actually shoot yourself, at least not literally. Figuratively - go ahead and shoot).

And fifth, and most important of all, she said this to me (and Mr. Lottery), as I was sitting in front of her, AND I AM HISPANIC!!! Well, apparently I don't look Hispanic.

Some people really are just that stupid. No other explanation. So next time you are out at your favorite pub enjoying a Sam Adams (or other beverage of choice), just think to yourself if someone around that bar is as stupid as Edith Bunker. My guess is ... well ... depends upon how busy the bar is.

Pepster