Last week was my first big losing week of the season, even at 8-8 (damn Big Bet). A quick refresher: Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Seattle Seahawks
So it turns out that Philly is much worse than everyone thought and the Seahawks are much better. And the Eagles have the DeSean Jackson drama, Maclin and Vick out, McCoy - who knows? But, that is better than Sidney Rice on IR and the starting quarterback with a torn pectoral muscle.
Chicago Bears -7 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Caleb Hanie at least showed that he can move the ball - Tyler Palko didn't. However, Orton should play, and then it is a whole different ball of wax. Nevertheless, the Bears D is gelling, with Peppers garnering NFC Defensive Player of the Month honors.
New England Patriots -20 v. Indianapolis Colts
This spread is so absurd, that I have to take New England, just to say I bet on a 20 point NFL favorite. The Pats offense is cruising; just when people learn they have to guard the two tight end offense, the Pats have two receivers hang 100 plus. And, we might have found an offense that the Pats D can stop.
Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Chris Johnson has awaken. The Bills are still playing better than anyone believed, but it is going to be hard for any of their receivers to get open because of Jason McCourty, the guy I believe is playing the best of any corner in the NFL.
Houston Texans +3 v. Atlanta Falcons
This is a weird game to pick, because we just have no idea what we are going to get out of T.J. Yates. But, we do know what we will get from the Texans defense and their running game, so I'll take the points and hope for a close game.
Denver Broncos + 1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
Is it possible to have a 0-0 game with 0 total yards from scrimmage?
Washington Redskins +3 v. New York Jets
I don't know why, I just feel that the Redskins have been playing well, the Jets haven't, and I want the points. Plus, the Redskins get a chance to see what they really have in Helu.
Carolina Panthers +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers running game seems to be getting back on track, and that will really open things up for Cam Newton.
Oakland Raiders +3 at Miami Dolphins
Both teams are playing much better than expected, but the Raiders running game is much stronger, and on that basis, I want the Raiders.
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati by 7 at Cincinnati, should be by more in Pittsburgh.
Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
I am not sure anyone should really be a 6 1/2 point favorite in this division, but I like the Ravens much more than the Browns. I hope the divisional rivalry thing doesn't make Cleveland play better than they really are.
Green Bay Packers -7 at New York Giants
Only Jason Pierre-Paul is really playing an effective defensive line for the Giants, and without a major pass rush, Rodgers can pick the defense apart. Plus, Brandon Jacobs is a shell of his former self, and cannot be an effective starting running back. The Giants need Bradshaw back.
St. Louis Rams +13 at San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis has not been winning a lot of games, but they have the offensive firepower to stay close. I'll take almost two touchdowns.
New Orleans Saints -9 v. Detroit Lions
With Suh out, the Lions interior rush falls to rookie Nick Fairley. New Orleans showed that they could run-and-gun with Green Bay, now they are fresh and looking to put their stamp on the second best team in the NFC sweepstakes.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. San Diego Chargers
The Jaguar defense played amazingly in their previous Monday Night Football appearance, and I look for an inspired performance this week after the del Rio firing and news that the purchasing owner will keep the team in Jacksonville. Gabbert really needs to perform much better, if he is given the chance to play.
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Dallas Cowboys -4 at Arizona Cardinals
Dallas is playing much better since DeMarco Murray has been inserted into the starting role, and DeMarcus Ware is having a Defensive MVP type season. I heard a line today that sums up Arizona. "We finally found a way to defend Larry Fitzgerald - John Skelton".
Previous Week's Record: 8-8
Year to Date: 74-68-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Beat Year to Date: 9-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $(245)
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $1105
