Okay, back to football. What the hell happened yesterday? I am not quite sure yet, but I am going to classify it as more aberration than evolution. Let's discuss this in the form of questions and answers...
1. Is the SEC over rated?
No, I don't believe it is. I still think that the SEC is a formidable conference and either the best or second best in the country. If I were a school in the Big Ten, I would not start scheduling SEC teams for homecoming just yet. I get that five of the top teams in the conference lost in big spots over two days, but lets look as some of the facts regarding the conferences...
According to fbschedules.com, here are the non-conference winning percentages for the power five conferences against power five teams prior to conference play this year.
Big Ten - 31%
Big 12 - 40%
ACC - 44%
SEC - 71%
PAC 12 - 75%
With regard to the bowl season, the current record for the SEC is 5-5. By comparison, the Big Ten is 5-4, The ACC is 5-6, and the Big 12 is 1-4. The star of the group is the Pac 12 which is currently 5-1.
So, let's not consider the SEC on the same level as the Sun Belt conference just yet. I am pretty sure that the depth of the conference is real and that the top teams will be just fine.
2. Certainly, we can agree that this is the end of the current SEC run, correct?
Again, I am not sure that I would stretch that far based on a 40 hour snapshot. Over the last decade, the SEC has shown in wins and in talent that this current run of dominance is not a fluke. Again, here are the facts...
The SEC has produced 8 of the last 10 National Champions, including 7 in a row from 2006 to 2012. This is a near impossible run in which 4 different teams from the conference won more than half of the national championships awarded in the BCS era!
Looking at the NFL draft over the last few years gives the following. According to NFL.com, the SEC has had:
- The most players drafted in each of the last 8 years. 49 players were drafted in the most recent NFL draft.
- The most players drafted in the 1st round in each of the last 4 years. In all four years, at least 10 players have gone in the 1st round. By comparison, the only other conference with as many as 8 during that time is the Big 12.
- The number of 1st round picks by conference in the last five drafts are
- SEC - 50
- Big 12 - 27
- ACC - 21
- Big 10 - 18
- Pac 12 - 17
- Big East - 6
- The total number of picks by conference in the last five drafts are
- SEC - 241
- ACC - 169
- Big 12 - 150
- Big 10 - 154
- Pac 12 - 124
- Big East - 73
3. Okay, then what does it mean that Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss all lost in a matter of 40 hours?
I am going to concentrate on Alabama and, to a lesser degree LSU here. Specifically, let's look at two things a little more closely here.
First, go back and look at the rosters of Alabama and LSU from their 2011 regular season game. As of the 2014 NFL Draft, 42 players from those two rosters were selected by teams. By the time all of the players from the rosters have completed their colleges runs, it is estimated that 70 could be drafted. Let me repeat that, 70 players drafted from two rosters in one college game in an "over rated" conference! If you want to see the names and some mind blowing stats, check out this cbssports.com link.
Second, based on information from NFL.com, Alabama has been a talent pipeline for the NFL over the last few years. We can agree that Alabama's biggest weakness was in its secondary this year. It simply gave up too many big plays. That is just one glaring problem caused by the amount of talent lost recently. Consider that Alabama has had 9 defensive backs drafted in the last 5 years, with 5 in the 1st round. The Crimson Tide has also gone 5 consecutive years with multiple 1st round draft picks. That has never been done before. By the way, I could have done the same thing with LSU and it would have been as impressive.
I am not going to say that these schools shouldn't be able to reload, I am saying that sometimes it takes a little time to overcome significant loss. Again, I wouldn't start loading up these teams to enhance your non-conference record.
4. Fine, you can admit that the Big Ten is a much better conference than you thought, right?
Hell. And. No.
Ohio State is really good and Urban Meyer is simply a great football coach. Michigan State is consistently the second best team in that conference and a really good football team. The rest of the Big Ten is dog shit and you can have it.
5. How do we know that the SEC was that good over the last decade, since the playoff system clearly exposed Alabama?
I would simply go back and look at the talent produced. It was not an accident that SEC was pounding anyone it faced when it mattered. This year, the playoff format matched the four best teams in the country. No one, and I mean no one argued that Alabama was not one of them. Even those of you who think that the SEC is over rated as a conference thought Alabama belonged in the Final Four teams.
6. Is this the end of SEC dominance?
Let's not treat the last 48 hours with Twitter gloves. The SEC is not going to stop recruiting or simply not try anymore because its top teams lost in bowl games this year. Dominance in college football is most often ended by external means. That is, scandal and sanctions. I don't believe that the entire conference is going to be placed under probation anytime soon. Therefore, you can continue to fear the talent showing up at those schools
7. Is there anything else you want to talk about?
Yes!! In a separate post, we are going to talk about trash talking among fans and fan bases. The trolling that you currently see and hear is not trash talk. It is gloating and post-game posturing. That is different. If you are confident enough in your team to trash talk and tongue wag, then do it right. Damn, I hate people that hide before and during a game then tell you how great they are after the fact!
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