Happy Thanksgiving to all!!! I would love to give thanks about my picks this week, as last week was clearly nothing to write home about (only 5 wins). I guess I can give thanks that I am still up for the year!
As a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.
Philadelphia Eagles + 2 1/2 at Detroit Lions
Talk about a difficult selection! On one hand we have the human turnover, Mark Sanchez, who is rumored to be good for only two things, for going with Dirty and interceptions, and the Detroit Lions who have even less than zero running game. I will take the points and hope, especially since Philadelphia is 6-0 on Thanksgiving.
Dallas Cowboys -1 v. Carolina Panthers
This pick seems so obvious toward Carlolina, so I am going with the Tony Romo led Cowboys, with a great performance by Darren McFadden against a tough Carolina defense.
Chicago Bears +8 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Even as a Bears fan, I have no real illusion that the Bears will win this game, but the Bears have played almost every single game extremely close. The Packers, although still pretty darn good, are not as great as everyone thought they would be at the beginning of the season.
Minnesota Vikings +1 at Atlanta Falcons
Adrian Peterson says that he feels like he is running like Adrian Peterson. That is enough for me, especially given that Atlanta is missing Donta Freeman and his explosivity on offense.
St. Louis Rams + 8 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is reeling, so I feel that 8 1/2 is a lot of points to cover against a team with a strong defense. Yes, Case Keenum may not be able to light up the Bengals either, but Todd Gurley is a man-child, and a ball control game could keep this close. Plus, the Rams might play with a ton of emotion given that Stedman Bailey was just shot in the head twice and is in a Miami hospital.
Houston Texans -3 v. New Orleans Saints
The resurgent Texans are on a 3 game winning streak, and are within striking distance of the division lead. They seem to be doing this with a phenomenal defense, no running game and De Andre Hopkins on offense. New Orleans seems to be going in the opposite direction, so I will take the Texans.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Indianapolis Colts
Lovie Smith is building an incredibly tough team with a lot of young talent, starting with Jameis Winston, who seems to be coming of age. The Colts are erratic, which is what I would have thought I would say about the Buccaneers. Doug Martin, coming up on free agency, has made himself a lot of money this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers
Every time I think that the Chargers are going to be competitive and cover the spread, they don't. So there is no way that I am picking them this week. The Jaguars defense, and a big game from Allen Robinson and/or Allen Hurns covers the spread.
Buffalo Bills +6 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
It is a short week for Buffalo, which means that I should pick Kansas City, but instead, I think that Buffalo are starting to figure themselves out. Kansas City has perplexed me all year though, so take this pick with a grain of salt.
Miami Dolphins + 3 1/2 at New York Jets
Miami clearly isn't as good as their first two games under Dan Campbell, but they are playing tougher on the lines, and without Nick Mangold, the running game and Chris Ivory has suffered. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a gamer, but his injury seems to be catching up to him. I predict a close defensive struggle, so I will take points.
Oakland Raiders -1 at Tennessee Titans
Oakland needs this win to stay in playoff contention, and I think they will defeat the Titans pretty solidly. The Titans have no running game, and no go-to-receiver, so I expect Oakland to take advantage of the rookie QB Marcus Mariota.
New York Giants -2 1/2 at Washington Racists
I think last week's Racists were much truer to form that the Racists that beat New Orleans.
San Francisco 49ers +10 v. Arizona Cardinals
And the 49ers score a late touchdown to cover the spread. I just couldn't pick Arizona as a road double digit favorite, even though they are clearly the better team. Calais Campbell is playing as good as any defensive lineman in the league - and yes, that includes J.J. Watt.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
This might be the best game of the week, with both teams suffering major injury problems, but their backups have been playing admirably. Seattle wins by 1.
Denver Broncos +3 v. New England Patriots
I will take the Broncos defense getting points at home against anybody - well clearly that is the case.
Cleveland Browns -3 v. Baltimore Ravens
What a horrible Monday night game. McCown to Gary Barnidge for 2 touchdowns!
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Minnesota Vikings +1 at Atlanta Falcons
Adrian Peterson says that he feels like he is running like Adrian Peterson. That is enough for me, especially given that Atlanta is missing Donta Freeman and his explosivity on offense.
For my big bet, I would always prefer selecting a home team, but in this case, I will take a point on the road, especially when I would expect the road team to win given Freeman's injury.
Year-to-Date Record: 81-74-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-3
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($655)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $665
