Picks of the Week

A pathetically average week, one in which I lost, but not too bad.  Two last minutes scores turned wins into pushes.  I am hoping that by putting my pics in on Thursday, and not rushing through them on Sunday morning might help.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Miami Dolphins +8 at New England Patriots
Thursday games are tough, but since Miami is finally playing like a lot of people thought they could play this year, I think they can keep this close.  The Patriots last week just decided not to run at all for the entire game, with Tom Brady as the team's leading rusher on 3 carries, so they might try a game where they do nothing but run.  That could prove difficult against an emerging Dolphins defensive line.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Minnesota Vikings
Finally the Bears get a home game on Halloween weekend (they have had byes the past few years).  Why is this important?  They get to wear their home alternate orange jerseys!

Detroit Lions +5 at Kansas City Chiefs
I cannot figure this game out.  When that happens, I'll take the points.  No Jamaal Charles for the Chiefs, and seemingly not much other offense either, so it will be tough to outscore Detroit by more than 5.  At some point, the Matt Stafford-Calvin Johnson connection has to have a good game, right?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is no longer red-hot, and is struggling offensively - with the singular exception of Devonta Freemen, who is nursing a bit of a hamstring.  Tampa's defense, led by Lavonte David, should keep this game close.  I still like the Falcons to win, but not to cover.

Baltimore Ravens -3 v. San Diego Chargers
Both teams have been extremely disappointing.  I take the Ravens on the basis that every game they have lost has been extremely close, and they deserve a break or two to win one at home.  By 4.

Arizona Cardinals -4 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
So I am selecting a road favorite that is also a west coast team traveling east for the 1:00 game; however, (1) It is against Cleveland; and (2) they do save an hour as daylight savings time ends.

Tennessee Titans pick 'em at Houston Texans
The Texans are awful, and Tennessee is not much better.  I just think something weird is going to happen in this game whereas the Texans are going to need a backup quarterback given that Mallett is gone.  Plus, can Mettenberger make enough plays?

New York Giants +3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
What a difference a division makes.  The Giants are 4-3, but in first place, while the Saints are 3-4 and in third place.  If the Giants offensive line can hold up, they should be able to at least keep this game close, while Drew Brees is due for a 2 or 3 interception game.

Cincinnati Bengals pick 'em at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are trying to keep themselves in the AFC North race, and a victory will pull them within one game of the Bengals.  However, Cincinnati's defense can shut down the Steelers' offense, whereas Pittsburgh's defense can only hope to contain Cincinnati's offense, which has multiple playmakers.

St. Louis Rams -8 v. San Francisco 49ers
TODD GURLEY!!!  Why have more people not been talking about a RGIII/Colin Kaepernick trade.  A change of scenery could do both players and teams a tremendous amount of good.

New York Jets -2 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
A second road favorite, but this is a team that can legitimately contend this year.  We have known about their defense (Wilkerson/Richardson/Revis), but their offense is now relatively explosive.  Chris Ivory is averaging just over 100 yards rushing per game, and Brandon Marshall is 10th in the league in receptions and 9th in receiving yards.  Oakland has been presently surprising as well, so it would not shock me if they won this game outright.

Seattle Seahawks -6 at Dallas Cowboys
A third road favorite, but the Cowboys are at 2-4 and lost 4 straight games.  Seattle is not the team it has been, with problems all along the offensive line.  The Cowboys, behind Greg Hardy, did put a lot of pressure on Tom Brady two weeks ago.  But, Dallas still lost that game 30-6.

Green Bay -2 1/2 at Denver Broncos
Another road favorite (God I hate these weeks), but as good as Denver's defense is, Green Bay's offense is just that much better.  Primarily, Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback to fear that Peyton Manning used to be, using the entire field and the entire offensive roster to spread things - and the defense - around.

Carolina Panthers -7 v. Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis seems like it is about ready to implode.  Carolina;s defense is keeping the scores low enough (not giving up just over 18 points a game) so that one big drive, or one big Cam Newton to Greg Olsen connection wins the game.  I have said that before, but that formula has been working.  Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis might be the best pair of ILBs in the league.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals pick 'em at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are trying to keep themselves in the AFC North race, and a victory will pull them within one game of the Bengals.  However, Cincinnati's defense can shut down the Steelers' offense, whereas Pittsburgh's defense can only hope to contain Cincinnati's offense, which has multiple playmakers.

For my big bet, I would always prefer selecting a home team, either receiving points or not giving up too many points.  None of those games give me confidence this week, so I select Cincinnati on the road, not giving up any points.  The other teams I thought about selecting here were Tampa (receiving points, but on the road), Baltimore, (the closest to what I wanted), Arizona (road team giving points), and Green Bay (road team giving points).  So, Cincinnati it is.

Last Week: 5-7-1
Year-to-Date: 56-45-4
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 6-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: ($120)
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $1,385

Picks of the Week

A good bounce back week.  I feel like I need two consecutive weeks like that to really make my season.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

San Francisco 49ers +6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Almost a touchdown home favorite who - albeit struggling - was playing another struggling team on a short week.  Missed that one.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Buffalo Bills (In London)
Jacksonville has been playing really tough this year, and the Bills are starting E.J. Manuel.

Minnesota Vikings -1 1/2 at Detroit Lions
The dreaded road favorite, but it is only 1 1/2 points.  Detroit finally broke into the win column last week, but even then did not look too impressive against the Bears.  Not sure how the Lions can stop Adrian Peterson.

Indianapolis Colts -4 v. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is coming off a win against then red-hot Atlanta, but Atlanta had to travel on a short week, and even then the Saints did not look impressive.  The Colts still look to control their division.  I think they win at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers + 2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
I am not saying that Landry Jones is the answer, but he gives Pittsburgh a dimension that Michael Vick did not, especially given that he does not have to carry the team given the presence of Le'Veon Bell.  Alex Smith does not have that safety blanket due to Jamaal Charles's injury.  Bud Dupree is really starting to come along as a pass rusher.

Miami Dolphins -4 v. Houston Texans
The Dolphins really shot themselves out of a cannon in their first game with Dan Campbell as their head coach.  It seems that the Texans could be a great team to keep up that type of play, and winning streak.

New England Patriots -7 v. New York Jets
The story of this game is "The league's best offense versus the league's best defense"; the proverbial irresistible force versus immovable object.  However, Belichick always gets up for these types of games.

Cleveland Browns +6 at St. Louis Rams
Todd Gurley is a monster, and for that reason I would normally have been inclined to pick the Rams. However, the Browns have played fairly well lately, and I just have a hunch.

Atlanta Falcons -6 at Tennessee Titans
The Falcons have had 10 days of rest since their last game, and because of that rest, they should come out strong against the Titans.  Atlanta's much improved defense should give Mariota/Mettenberger a really tough time, given that the Titans have no real offensive threats.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Washington Racists
A really tough call, but I wonder if DeSean Jackson's head is going to be in this game after his house was robbed and an occupant pistol-whipped in what is believed to be a gang-related incident; the second time one of his residences has been robbed.

San Diego Chargers -3 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
The Chargers should have too much talent to defeat the Raiders.  If the Raiders could get one more playmaker on offense, though, they would have a better shot against the San Diego.  I look for Philip Rivers to make one big play to put them over the top, likely to Antonio Gates.

New York Giants -3 v. Dallas Cowboys
After last week's game against the Eagles showed that the Giants offensive line cannot block anybody, and given that the Cowboys harassed the Patriots, it would be difficult to say I have any confidence in this pick.  However, the Cowboys are really hurting - literally - on offense, and the Giants offense - with some time - can move the ball against Dallas.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Carolina Panthers
I have been on the Carolina bandwagon, particularly Cam Newon and Greg Olsen, since the beginning of the year, however, it is time for them to fall from the list of the unbeatens.  The Eagles offense seems to be clicking, and Chip Kelly has finally figured out how to use DeMarco Murray.  If I think the underdog can win outright, I will definitely take the points.

Arizona Cardinals -8 v. Baltimore Ravens
I do not like this line at all.  But what I do know is that Arizona is the second highest scoring team in the NFL average almost 33 a game.  If Arizona gets up in this game and the Ravens have to throw, then that is where the talented secondary of Arizona - with Patrick Peterson and the Honey Badger - can be opportunistic and make a play that seals the game.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Miami Dolphins -4 v. Houston Texans
The Dolphins really shot themselves out of a cannon in their first game with Dan Campbell as their head coach.  It seems that the Texans could be a great team to keep up that type of play, and winning streak.  I feel strongly enough about this game to make it my Big Bet.  My other choice was Atlanta over Tennessee, but Atlanta was giving more points.

Last Week: 9-5
Year-to-Date: 51-38-2
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 5-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $500
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $1,505

Picks of the Week

I was right in that I was due for a bad week, but I was simply annihilated last week.  I need a comeback something fierce.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

New Orleans Saints +3 versus Atlanta Falcons
This was Thursday, and I told a couple of friends about this pick ahead of time.  Plus, regular readers should know my disdain for selecting road favorites, and this was on a short week with an ailing Julio Jones.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 at Detroit Lions
Detroit has yet to win a game this year, and I suppose this would be a good time for them to start, but a 3 1/2 point favorite?  The Bears defense is gelling nicely, and Alshon Jeffrey is supposed to be back this week.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Buffalo Bills
Repeat after me, Pepster hates road favorites, although EJ Manuel is starting today at QB for the Bills, Sammy Watkins is whining, and Cincinnati is lighting up teams, so I am OK with this selection.

Cleveland Browns + 3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
I really do not know what to do with this game.  This is the second week in a row that I have said that in a Browns game.  Denver is 5-0, but every game has been close.  They are not clicking at all.  Cleveland, behind Joe Haden's coverage of Demaryius Thomas would have definitely kept this close, but he is out with a concussion.  Nevertheless, I will take them anyway on a hunch that Travis Benjamin will make a big play.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 1/2 v. Houston Texans 
Jacksonville is playing some decent ball, including on the defensive side of the ball, whereas Houston is listless on offense.  Add to that fact that JJ Watt is hurt and I will take the home Jaguars.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
The Vikings are a well balanced team, and even with Jamaal Charles the Chiefs are limited.

Washington Racists +7 1/2 at New York Jets
I do not think that Washington is going to win this game, but I do believe that they can keep it close enough to cover the more than a touchdown spread.  Fitzpatrick is playing some decent quarterback for the Jets (GO HARVARD 5-0), and they will make more big plays that the Racists.

Pittsburgh Steelers +4 v. Arizona Cardinals
I was just as everyone when Pittsburgh won last week, and Arizona is more talented that the Roethlisberger-less Steelers.  That being said, there is no way I am selecting Arizona as a road favorite, and as a west coast team travelling east for the early game.

Miami Dolphins +2 at Tennessee Titans
The Dolphins should come out of their bye week with renewed vigor and energy thanks to new coach Dan Coleman.  He will unleash the talented, but underperforming, defensive line on rookie QB Marcus Mariota.

Carolina Panthers +7 at Seattle Seahawks
Carolina may not be as talented overall as the Seahawks, but Cam Newton and G-Reg Olsen are playing as good as anyone else at their respective positions.  Seattle is missing center Max Unger, traded to New Orleans for Jimmie Graham, who only played 72% of the teams offensive downs last week,  Something is wrong there.

Green Bay Packers -10 v. San Diego Chargers
Today we find out if something is really wrong with Eddie Lacy.  If so, the Packers passing game could still outscore the Chargers, as the Packers defense - especially pass defense - is stifling this year.

San Francisco 49ers +2 v. Baltimore Ravens
This game would have been great 3 years ago, but today, not so much.  We have seen some life at times from each of these teams, but I will take the points at home.

New England Patriots -9 at Indianapolis
Another road favorite BUT ... The Patriots are much better, and more importantly, this is Bill Belicheick's deflategate revenge game.  I would have given up to 20 1/2 points in this game given the revenge factor.

New York Giants +5 at Philadelphia Eagles
Division rivals, prime time game, key offensive injuries on both sides ... I'll take the points.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Buffalo Bills
Repeat after me, Pepster hates road favorites, although EJ Manuel is starting today at QB for the Bills, Sammy Watkins is whining, and Cincinnati is lighting up teams, so I am OK with this selection.  I select this as my big bet because of the games I was considering, this is the one in which a backup quarterback is starting.

Last Week: 4-9-1
Year-to-Date: 42-33-2
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 4-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: ($440)
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $1,005

Picks of the Week

Another great week.  I hope that does not mean that I am due for a poor week!!!

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts -4 1/2 at Houston Texans
This was Thursday, and I told a couple of friends about this pick ahead of time.  I know you all believe me on this because this was a very easy selection.

Chicago Bears +9 at Kansas City Chiefs
No, I do not think that the Bears victory means that they are a good team, but I do believe that 9 points is way too much for the Chiefs to be giving, as Kansas City is not very good either.

Atlanta Falcons -7 v. Washington Racists (I cannot believe I have been calling them the Redskins this year)
Yes Julio Jones is questionable, but Ryan can spread the ball around to everybody except Roddy White, and the running game has really developed.  Washington is still Washington.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
I really do not know what to do with this game.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Seattle Seahawks
Cincinnati's defensive line is really good and Seattle's offensive line is rebuilding.  With Seattle coming from the west coast and playing the early game, I feel that Cincinnati covers to remain undefeated.

St. Louis Rams +9 at Green Bay Packers
As great as Green Bay has been, it would not surprise me at all if St. Louis wins this game.  Aaron Donald is a beast, Todd Gurley looks like he could be amazing, so at least they keep it close.

New Orleans Saints +6 at Philadelphia Eagles
I am not a big fan of the Saints this year, but I think Brees is starting to develop some confidence in receivers like Willie Snead and CJ Spiller out of the backfield.  This should keep them close to the Eagles, who have had their own offensive troubles on the season.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jacksonville just looks like they have been  playing better this year than their record.

Buffalo Bills pick 'em at Tennessee Titans
I will take the Bills on the road to win this game.  I assumed they would have been favored by a couple of points.

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions
The dreaded road favorite, but something seems amiss with the Lions this year while Arizona has been cruising.

Oakland +4 v. Denver Broncos
I really did not want to pick two road favorites in a row.  Khalil Mack might be the best defensive player on the field, and I think Amari Cooper makes enough plays to keep this close, even if Denver wins.

Dallas Cowboys +9 v. New England Patriots
The Patriots win this game, but by single digits.

New York Giants -7 v. San Francisco 49ers
Dare I say that the Giants actually look good this year.  San Francisco understandably does not, given their massive roster turnover in the offseason.  New York rolls.

San Diego Chargers -3 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Michael Vick.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Chicago Bears +9 at Kansas City Chiefs
No, I do not think that the Bears victory means that they are a good team, but I do believe that 9 points is way too much for the Chiefs to be giving, as Kansas City is not very good either.  I normally hate picking my team as the Big Beat, but 9 points is a lot of points to be giving a team whose defense has actually been playing well.  Pernell McPhee is quietly have a Pro Bowl type start to the year.

Last Week: 10-5
Year-to-Date: 38-24-1
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 3-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $600
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $1,445

Picks of the Week

A really good recovery week for the picks.  I am selecting all of the games this week as this weekend is going to be a long, good weekend, and I may not have a better opportunity to enter my selections.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, the dreaded road favorite, however this one makes sense.  The Ravens are 0-3, but are three plays away from being 3-0.  The last 8 minutes of last week's game against Cincinnati was an offensive orchestra.  The Steelers lost Ben Roethlisberger, so they turn to backup Michael Vick, but Vick only gets to prepare for a short week.  At least he has Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are favored for the first time in 27 games.  The Bears offense was absolutely anemic, but their defense was really stout against Seattle last week.  At least I think they will keep it close.

New York Jets -1 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins just simply cannot run the ball.  Not at all.   Plus, Fitzpatrick will absolutely make his mistakes, but he is not afraid to air it out.  Brandon Marshall looking for a bit of revenge.

Atlanta Falcons -6 1/2 v. Houston Texans
Can anybody even try to slow down Julio Jones?  Will the Texans try to cover him with J.J. Watt?  Will the Texans get a top pick again?  Stay tuned to find out!

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 v. New York Giants
It seems like the Bills learned their lesson from the Patriots game as they rebounded nicely against the Dolphins.  The Giants should have Victor Cruz back, but it would be interesting to see if he is in game shape.  UPDATE:  Cruz is now ruled out.  This does not change my pick at all.

Cincinnati Bengals -4 v. Kansas City Chiefs
The Bengals can score points in a hurry, and A.J. Green reminded us that he is absolutely an elite receiver in the NFL.  Kansas City has been disappointing, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

Indianapolis Colts -9 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
I actually thought long and hard about this game, as it appears the Colts were drastically overrated at the beginning of the season.  However, there is a possibility that things started to click in the second half last week against Tennessee, and if that is the case, the Jaguars have no chance.  If the Colts did not find themselves and just happened to be playing a bad team, well, Jacksonville is also a bad team.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Well, hell, I might as well pick a third road favorite.  The job that Cam Newton is doing so  far - along with Greg Olsen - is absolutely phenomenal.  He has earned the right to the Superman celebration this  year.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Washington Redskins
Might as well keep it going.  Washington is horrible and is in absolute trouble.  This team might actually be falling apart.  Philadelphia finally got its offense moving forward against the Jets last week, and should continue against Washington this week.  Like my college roommate Marcus said last week, "Even I don't bet the Redskins".  He is from Washington.

San Diego Chargers -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
I really don't have that much trust in San Diego this year, and this is the exact situation in which I would normally take an underdog getting more than a touchdown. However, Cleveland is a mess, and the word out of town is that there is a mini-revolt among the offensive players over the McCown-Manziel quarterback controversy.

Arizona Cardinals -7 v. St. Louis Rams
Arizona has been one of the three best teams in the league at the start of the season, and it does not look like the Rams have the ability or capability to slow down the Cardinals.

Minnesota Vikings + 6 1/2 at Denver Broncos
It seems as if the old Adrian Peterson has returned.  That is bad new for the rest of the league.

Green Bay Packers -9 at San Francisco 49ers
I am just hoping that this week goes as well as Week 1, when I also selected 5 road favorites.  The Packers are in the conversation as the best team in the league right now, and the 49ers might be looking for a new quarterback soon.  Perhaps a Kaepernick for RGIII trade?

Dallas Cowboys +7 at New Orleans Saints
Brandon Weeden acquitted himself nicely in the shootout agianst Atlanta, leading me to believe that he can at least keep it close against the Saints.  We don't know what we will get from Drew Brees, if anything, but we do know that the Saints were not very good even with Brees.

Seattle Seahawks -9 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
Seattle is close to being Seattle again (although still missing that little something), while the Lions have been one of the biggest disappointments in the league this year.  The Seahawks pick up a little more momentum for their season with a blowout win.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals -4 v. Kansas City Chiefs
The Bengals can score points in a hurry, and A.J. Green reminded us that he is absolutely an elite receiver in the NFL.  Kansas City has been disappointing, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  This is my pick of the week because the Chief's secondary has looked incredibly suspect this year, and I look for Andy Dalton to take advantage of them.


Last Week: 9-7
Year-to-Date: 28-19-1
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 2-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $280
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $845